NFL Best Bets Week 6: Ravens stifle Titans, Lions maul Bucs, Chargers upset Cowboys
Five weeks into the season, the NFL has been a whirlwind of unexpected drama, twists and turns, breakouts and busts, and plenty of injuries. It's been a volatile scene for many fans and bettors alike, but here at Sporting News our best bets have been as steady as ever. We will look to carry over our strong momentum from last weekend to this one with our Week 6 best bets.
Each Friday afternoon, yours truly runs the gauntlet and handpicks my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets. We scour Sports Interaction and SuperDraft for the best value and tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through five weeks, we have made plenty of money.
Last week, my best bets against the spread went a perfect 5-0 and my over/under picks went 4-0. All said, we went 12-4 on the week, bumping our season-long record to 43-28-1. As many pro bettors have said over the years: if you're winning over 60 percent of your bets, you're a successful gambler.
Well, we don't even view sports betting as a gamble. With the right mindset, strategies, and preparedness, we see it as an investment — and we're loving our return on investment through five weeks. That's why we don't just call this thing of ours a hobby — rather, it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
Your goal is to win money, and our top priority is to help you achieve that goal. That's why we put in a ton of statistical research, attack all the angles, uncover all the betting trends, and pinpoint value across all the sports betting sites each week.
This weekend's slate features a bunch of great games and a plethora of lucrative opportunities for bettors. So, let's go get that money and reveal our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and SuperDraft player prop bets for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season.
NFL Best Bets Week 6: Against the spread
Ravens (-0.5 1Q) vs. Titans (London)
The Ravens have been in London since the start of the week, a sage move considering the Titans didn't fly out there until Friday. As a result, we love Baltimore to get off to a strong start and win the first quarter against a Tennessee squad that has scored just 12 first-quarter points all season (2.4 1Q points per game).
The Titans might be the worst 2-3 team in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill has been as inconsistent as ever, Derrick Henry has looked pedestrian, and Tennessee's secondary has once again looked awful against the pass. Mike Vrabel's guys have yielded a WR rating above 112 on the season, and they surrender nearly 200 yards to wideouts per game and 260 air yards per road game this season. Expect a strong outing from Lamar Jackson and top Ravens wideout Zay Flowers.
Meanwhile, Baltimore seems perfectly-equipped to limit Nashville's not-so-spicy offensive attack. Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, and the Ravens defense has limited running backs to 3.8 yards per carry this season. That's bad news for King Henry, who has looked like 'Just Derrick,' netting 3.4 yards per carry or worse in three of his past four games.
John Harbaugh's squad has also held QBs to a rating in the low-70s this season, so don't expect much positive regression from oft-struggling Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill. With Marlon Humphrey back in Baltimore's secondary for his second game of the season, Tanne could be stuck in a London fog this weekend.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Ravens 10, Titans 0 (1st quarter); Ravens 23, Titans 17 (full game)
Rams (-2.5 1Q) vs. Cardinals (-125)
We're loving the first-quarter spreads this weekend, as most of the games on the Week 6 slate seem either too close to call or too lopsided to bet. Matthew Stafford and the Rams have looked quite impressive in plus-matchups this season, and now Sean McVay's gang has top wideout Cooper Kupp back and rust-free with defenders forced to also pay attention to breakout receivers Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell.
The BetQL model revealed an interesting stat trend while running projections for this game: Arizona has gone just 8-16 against teams with completion rates of 61 percent or better over the past three years. Matthew Stafford's completion rate this season: 61.1! The Cardinals have also allowed the fourth-most air yards per game to QBs (274.4) and fifth-most passing TDs (8) through five games. They have also allowed 1.8 rushing TDs per game, fourth-most in the NFL, so Kyren Williams should feast as well.
With James Conner out for the Cards, we don't hold out too much hope for Josh Dobbs to start strong in this one. Aaron Donald and the Rams have allowed an opponent average team passer rating of 81.3, and this is basically a must-win for L.A. with the undefeated 49ers and 3-1 Seahawks sitting atop the NFC West. Our money's on the Rams owning the first quarter, and Arizona getting shut out in the first quarter for the third consecutive week.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Rams 10, Cardinals 0 (1st quarter); Rams 30, Cardinals 17 (full game)
Other Week 6 spreads we like: Raiders -0.5 (1Q) vs. Patriots (+115); Jets +7.5 vs. Eagles (-140); Lions -0.5 (1Q) at Buccaneers (+115)
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 6
Chargers (+115) vs. Cowboys (Monday Night Football)
Here's our upset pick of the week, with the Chargers at home coming off a bye and finally getting Austin Ekeler back from his ankle injury. The Cowboys have been quite underwhelming on the offensive side of the ball all season, and their defense has taken a massive step back since stud cornerback Trevon Diggs tore his ACL.
In the two games before Diggs' injury, Dallas had allowed an average of 193 total yards and 106.5 passing yards per game. Contrast that with the three games since the injury, in which the 'Boys have allowed 358 total yards and 210 air yards per game — and that's despite facing the Cardinals and Patriots during that span. Newsflash: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Ekeler, and the Chargers are much better than the Pats and Cards.
Herbert and the Bolts already out-dueled the Vikings and Raiders with Ekeler on the shelf — here's betting they will take care of the Cowboys at home after enjoying an extra week of rest and prep. Let's face it: this could be a make-or-break game for this Chargers squad.
The Cowboys don't deserve to be -135 road favorites in this game. They're coming off a throttling by the NFC-leading 49ers, which left the Dallas faithful once again questioning why Mike McCarthy is calling the offensive shots for Dak Prescott and the 'Boys. They have managed just 4.9 yards per play and one passing TD per game this season, and Tony Pollard has been a bit underwhelming in his first full season as workhorse back. The Chargers pull off the MNF upset.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Chargers 27, Cowboys 23
Lions (-140) at Buccaneers (1Q)
I shied away from the Lions' bandwagon during the offseason, wondering why everyone was falling for Dan Campbell's schtick and a whole lotta hype. Well, I'm taking that L now, because now I can clearly see that Detroit is one of the best contenders in the NFL. You name it, this squad does it: QB, playmaking pass-catchers, running game, strong offensive and defensive lines. How can you not love every element of this Lions' system?
Jared Goff has gone back to his roots as one of the most dependable signal-callers in the game. Aidan Hutchinson has looked like a DPOY while anchoring a fantastic Lions pass-rush. Amon-Ra St. Brown, who will play despite a questionable tag earlier this week due to an abdominal injury, is about as good as it gets when it comes to slot receivers. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been a revelation. Veteran power back David Montgomery would be the surprise back of the season if De'Von Achane didn't exist.
The Bucs have been pretty good this season, but look at the QBs Baker Mayfield has out-dueled to secure their three wins: Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, and Derek Carr. Goff and this Detroit offense are quite simply on a whole different level than Minnesota, Chicago, and New Orleans. Tampa has also scored just six first-quarter points all season, and none over its past two games. The Lions have scored two touchdowns in the first frame of each of their past two games. Book 'em.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 10, Bucs 3 (1Q); Lions 23, Bucs 20 (full game)
Other Week 6 moneylines we like: Texans (+105) vs. Saints; Commanders (+120) at Falcons
Best NFL over/under bets Week 6
Commanders vs. Falcons: UNDER 42.5 (-110)
This game could get ugly — like, real ugly. Sam Howell and the Commanders got railed by the Bears in the first half last week, losing 27-3 at halftime before making a second-half surge that required Riverboat Ron Rivera to completely abandon the run.
Atlanta's defense is much better than Chicago, with a solid pass-rush and a pretty good secondary that has held opponents to 19.2 points per game this season. The Falcons rank top five in opponent conversion rate on third downs and TD percentage in the red zone. Don't sleep on the ATL.
The Falcons offense, meanwhile, you can probably sleep on. Desmond Ridder and the Dirty Birds have put up the fifth-fewest points in the NFL this season (16.6 per game) and average an NFL-worst 3.9 yards per play in away games. In a game in which no one takes Command and everyone wants to fly south, take the UNDER.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Commanders 20, Falcons 16
Other Week 6 over/unders we like: Bills OVER 29.5 vs. Giants (-120); Jets vs. Eagles UNDER 41 (-110)
Best NFL player prop bets Week 6
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins vs. Panthers — OVER 68.5 rushing yards
With dynamic Dolphins rookie running back De'Von Achane on IR, Mostert reverts back to lead dog in the NFL's best rushing offense. But even if Achane didn't get hurt, we would probably still bet Mostert's OVER in this juicy home matchup against Carolina.
The Panthers have surrendered the third-most yards to RBs this season (128 per game) and the fifth-most yards per rush (4.9). And in the two Miami games in which Mostert carried the ball more than 10 times, he finished with rushing totals of 121 (@ Patriots) and 82 (vs. Broncos). He will obliterate this modest projection.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars vs. Colts — OVER 60.5 passing yards (Piva)
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars started the season throwing everything Calvin Ridley's way, but Kirk has been TLaw's favorite and most dependable receiver in the five weeks since. Between Weeks 2 and 5, Kirk has hauled in 29-of-40 targets for 326 yards and a TD. Sign us up! The Colts surrendered 259 passing yards to the Titans, and have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game since the season began. Kirk and the Jags to the moon!
