NFL Player Props Week 17: Predictions, Picks & Odds for Thursday Night Football

We're feeling good about our Week 17 NFL player props after a blisteringly profitable run in Week 16, and we're looking for another strong start on Thursday Night Football while using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.

It's hard to do much better than we did with our Week 16 NFL player props when we cashed seven of eight bets for plus-9.78 units, with our only loss coming on a +130 wager on the Saturday game locked behind a Peacock paywall. If nobody saw it happen, did it really lose?

We're looking for a third consecutive week of profits as we head into this week's Thursday Night Football showdown between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns - the third in four weeks featuring two backup QBs at the helm. The Under isn't always profitable in those spots, but these defenses have us thinking differently in Week 16.

There's only one game this Saturday, but it should be a good one between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys, this time widely broadcast on ABC/ESPN. This matchup is technically in place of Monday Night Football, which won't return in its usual slot until the postseason, so we'll instead be treated to a nostalgic weekend edition of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling a Cowboys game.

Sunday's slate is jam-packed with key matchups for playoff positioning, but none are more important than the early game between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins, with the winner securing the inside track for the AFC's No. 1 seed. If the Ravens win it, the top seed is theirs, though the Dolphins would still need to beat the rival Buffalo Bills in Week 18.

In addition to our NFL Week 17 predictions and Week 17 anytime touchdown scorer predictions, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for Week 17 (odds via ourbest NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 17

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NFL player props for Week 17: Thursday Night Football

Trevor Siemian Under 30.5 yards longest completion (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I have about as much faith in Siemian in this spot as I would in myself, and I don't have an NFL-caliber arm. I'm not totally sure the Jets' new QB does, either, but the prop total for his passing yards (176.5) is too low to fade.

Instead, I'm betting against Siemian's ability to throw the ball downfield against one of the best pass defenses in football.

Through 16 weeks, the Browns rank first in pass defense (160.1 YPG) and EPA/pass (-0.23), and they've allowed the league's second-fewest air yards per game (84.4) - behind only the Jets' vaunted secondary. Last week, they didn't allow a completion of 20 yards, and they haven't surrendered a pass longer than 30 yards in three weeks.

Enter Siemian, whose average depth of target (6.6) is the fourth-lowest of any QB with as many attempts (88) as the Jets' new starter. Only nine of those 88 throws have gone beyond 20 yards, which is also the second-fewest of the 46 passers with as many attempts as the former seventh-round pick.

Last week, in his first start of the season, Siemian attemped 49 passes and still couldn't complete a pass longer than 16 yards. His longest completion this year went for 25 yards, and he's completed a pass of 30-plus yards in just three of his last 14 appearances dating back to 2017.

As if all that isn't enough, we're catching a market outlier with this total of 30.5 at bet365 - a number that's dropping across our best sports betting apps as kickoff nears. This isn't exactly a "fun" bet to root for on Thursday night, but they all cash the same.

NFL player props for Week 17: Saturday Night Football

CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown (-138 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lamb has been a touchdown machine this year, as he's scored in seven straight games and ranks third among all receivers in total touchdowns (11). And the Lions don't have a great answer for him this week, either.

Entering Week 17, Detroit's ranks in the bottom 10 in most passing metrics, with much of the blame falling to the team's woeful secondary. That group has allowed a whopping 18 touchdowns to opposing wideouts, the fourth-most by any team this season. 

Jerry Jacobs, one of the team's top two corners, missed last week with a hamstring injury and has been picked on mercilessly when he plays. So has opposite corner Cameron Sutton, who was burned for 83 yards and a touchdown last week.

Rookie Brian Branch has been the Lions' primary slot defender, and he's made his fair share of highlight plays. But he's also allowed five touchdowns on 57 targets, tied for the 12th-most by any corner this season.

None of them are a fair match for Lamb, especially on his (literal) home turf. The star wideout has scored eight of his 11 touchdowns in seven games at AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys are averaging a staggering 39.9 points with an average of 3.86 touchdowns per game.

Only one of our five best sportsbooks are offering this prop at better than -150 odds, and two of them are trading at -170 or shorter. I'll gladly lay the -138 price at bet365 on Lamb getting loose at least once against this overmatched secondary.

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