NFL Player Props Week 8: Predictions, Picks for Thursday

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25 October 2023

NFL Player Props Week 8: Predictions, Picks for Thursday

Sportsbook Review betting analysts Neil Parker and Jon Metler have been piling up the winning NFL player prop picks with an 18-5 record over the past five weeks, and Week 8 provides another opportunity to add to the pile of winners, based on the NFL odds.

The Buffalo Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium in the Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup, and the pair of playoff hopefuls are looking to bounce back from their respective Week 7 losses.

Speaking of losses, there weren’t many among our Week 7 NFL player props. We went 5-1 for +3.51 units, which puts our heater up to an 18-5 run for +12.82 units over the past five weeks.

We're looking to string together another winning week with the jam-packed, 16-game slate offering plenty of opportunities to put more green checkmarks on the ledger.

Here are our best NFL player props for Week 8 (odds via ourbest NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 8

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NFL player props for Week 8: Thursday Night Football

Gabe Davis Over 39.5 receiving yards (-119 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

With just four receptions for 27 yards over the past two games, Davis hasn’t capitalized on his nine targets. His role in the Buffalo passing attack isn’t in question, and his 14.97 aDOT ranks fourth in the NFL among wide receivers with at least 20 targets this season.

He leads Buffalo receivers in offensive snaps and 29.3% of his 140 career receptions have gone for 20-plus yards.

Simply put, Davis and quarterback Josh Allen just haven’t connected on a big play since the wideout went for 100 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5. And, through the first five weeks of the season, Davis averaged 64 receiving yards on 3.6 receptions per game.

I’m looking for a bounce-back performance against a solid Tampa Bay defense, but a defense that excels at stopping the run more than the vertical attack.

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

I have Davis projected for 46.4 receiving yards and would price this Over at -155. The difference in my numbers and the -119 Caesars odds is a positive expected value of 12%. Additionally, I value this number because FanDuel has the total at 41.5 as of Wednesday morning.

Mike Evans Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bills just allowed New England Patriotsquarterback Mac Jones to complete 25 of 30 passes for 272 yards and 9.1 yardsper attempt in Week 7, and now the Buffalo defense has a short turnaroundagainst one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in football.

It’s pretty clear Buffalo misses No. 1cornerback Tre'Davious White (Achilles) and top linebacker Matt Milano (leg).And I expect their absences to be even more exacerbated on the short week.

Evans, meanwhile, remains a target hog in theTampa Bay passing attack with 49 through six games. Additionally, Evans isaveraging 9.6 yards per target and has already hauled in eight receptions of20-plus yards. These numbers are also lowered by his underwhelming, andshortened, showing going head-to-head with New Orleans Saints four-time ProBowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore in Week 4.

Those two have a bit of a love/haterelationship.

But back to Thursday Night Football props,I have Evans projected for 63.3receiving yards and would price this Over at -140. It adds up to a positive expected value of 11% compared tothe -110 bet365 odds.

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NFL player props for Week 8: Sunday

Patrick Mahomes Over 273.5 passing yards(-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐

This is one of the lowest passing yards totalsfor Mahomes this season, and he’s soared Over this required 273.5 benchmark ineach of the past three games.

The Denver Broncos have skewed defensivestatistics because of their 70-20 Week 3 road drubbing by the Miami Dolphins.Additionally, the Broncos just faced Kansas City in Week 6, so there is some addedfamiliarity. Both are definite factors for why this total is lower than Ianticipated.

Remember, though, the last Denver-Kansas Citymatchup was on a Thursday, and the Chiefs were coming off consecutive roadgames.

I have Mahomes projected for 289.5 passing yards and would pricethis Over at -139. As a result,we’re landing a positive expected value of 11% on the -110 bet365 odds.