NFL Playoff Divisional Round predictions, picks, odds
One of the best weekends on the entire football calendar has arrived with the NFL’s Divisional Round matchups slated to take place on Saturday and Sunday. While Super Wild Card Weekend provides more games, the Divisional Round usually delivers better quality with all the best teams in action.
The class of both conferences will get things started on Saturday with the two No. 1 seeds coming off a bye. The No. 1 Baltimore Ravens will welcome the Houston Texans to town, while the nightcap of Saturday’s doubleheader has the No. 1 San Francisco 49ers hosting the Green Bay Packers.
If that’s not enough, the Detroit Lions look to continue their magical postseason run when they face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tickets are extremely pricey to watch a Lions team looking to reach the conference title game for the first time since 1991.
The weekend culminates with arguably the best matchup as two superstar quarterbacks are set to square off. Patrick Mahomes is playing in his first road playoff game of his career when the Kansas City Chiefs travel to clash with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
If you are a football fan, you will be glued to your couch throughout the weekend. So it only makes sense to have a little action on these games, right? We are here to help with our best bets for the Divisional Round.
Best bets
If this line ends up increasing to 10, this would be a smash bet for underdog bettors. But it’s probably the right side at +9 or better.
The Ravens have been in this position before; they were the No. 1 seed and primed for a Super Bowl run in 2019. They proceeded to lose outright as double-digit home favorites against the Tennessee Titans, so I’m sure they don’t like the idea of seeing another AFC South team off a bye.
Like San Francisco, Baltimore opted to rest its key players in the regular-season finale with the top seed clinched. Teams coming off a double-bye are 0-5 against the spread in the Divisional Round, which includes three outright upsets. The 2019 Ravens were one of those teams, and while they should avoid an upset this time around, taking the points with a hot Texans squad makes too much sense.
Packers +9.5 vs. 49ers (-110 via BetMGM)
It might seem silly but the rest vs. rust debate is absolutely real. Since 2002, teams coming off a first-round bye in the playoffs are 54-24 straight up in this round. But teams with extra rest are just 35-42-1 against the spread. Simply put, you are paying a premium to take the team with fresh legs.
There is a very real chance that neither top seed wins by double-digits on Saturday, but the 49ers seem even more vulnerable than a Ravens team with a fresh memory of being in this position. For as good as San Francisco was this year in the NFC, this team was just 9-8 ATS and often fell short of market expectations.
Green Bay is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. The Packers have won four straight, covering the number in three of those games. This team hasn’t been this big of an underdog all year, and will be playing with house money come Saturday night.
Rachaad White UNDER 15.5 rushing attempts (-120 via Bet365)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pushed past the Philadelphia Eagles for a 32-9 win to cap off Super Wild Card Weekend. Running back Rachaad White earned 18 rushing attempts, turning that into 72 yards.
The game script this weekend should be much different, with the Bucs firmly considered touchdown underdogs. They will likely need to pass the ball more, as it’s the best way to attack a Lions defense that ranked 30th in the league in passing yards allowed per game.
White has only recorded more than 15 rushing attempts in one of Tampa Bay’s eight losses this year, a trend that the market expects to continue. Most sportsbooks have moved the price for this prop to as much as -150, so this -120 value at Bet365 is worth scooping up.
Josh Allen OVER 0.5 interceptions (+100 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen might have won the MVP award if not for his interceptions. Some might argue interceptions aren’t detrimental, but the Bills wouldn’t have had their playoff chances in doubt had Allen taken care of the ball better against a Zach Wilson-led New York Jets team in the season opener.
The price on Allen to throw an interception is normally trading at minus odds, which is why this offering at DraftKings is too good to pass up. Allen has thrown an interception in 14 of his 18 games this year, including a matchup against the Chiefs on Dec. 10.
Allen might make enough plays to help the Bills prevail as short favorites, but there is reason to believe the Chiefs will take advantage of at least one errant pass on Sunday. And at +100, it’s certainly worth the sweat.
