NFL Divisional Round Weekend: Sportsbooks Say Blowouts

Hey, that Super Wild Card Weekend thing sure did stink, eh? The only good game was the Lions and Rams, and we got cheated out of a Blizzard Bowl when the wussies in the NFL front office moved the Bills-Steelers game back a day.

Seriously: When did we start moving football games? No way this game gets moved in the 1950s. 

Anyway, we march on to Divisional Round week, where the games are … full of big spreads across America’s top sports betting apps.

Ravens -9.5 over the Texans. San Francisco -9.5 over the Packers. Lions -6.5 over the Bucs. Only close game is the Bills -2.5 over the Chiefs.

Of course, just because the books say blowout doesn’t mean anything, but uh … yeah. The 49ers and the Ravens look like the cream of the NFL crop, the Buccaneers are pretenders (right?), and the Chiefs-Bills, well, two years ago, this total would be like 55 or something. This week, it’s 45.5, and honestly, that might be too high.

In short: I’m a little yawny about this slate.

Now, get me to Championship Week and give me the 49ers and Lions and the Ravens and either the Bills or Chiefs, and I am entertained. But I do fear this week is going to be … not all that entertaining.

But I’ve been wrong about basically everything in the NFL this year, so why start listening to me now?

The +1000 or more parlay of the week

Now we’re 0-19. Went with a six-team moneyline parlay last week because I’m in a panic. The Rams and Cowboys did me in. Oh well. This week … in an effort at profitability … and headed to FanDuel … I am going with … four player props. Why not. 

Lamar Jackson over 225.5 yards passing, Baker Mayfield over 260.5 passing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 89.5 rushing yards, and Josh Allen over 43.5 rushing yards. It all comes in at +1141.

Rationale: The Ravens and Bucs are playing two teams that stuff the run and bleed out to the pass in the Texans and Lions. Ergo, passing yardage overs. The Packers, I’m thinking, will concede the run in an effort to not get blown out of the water. Ergo, McCaffrey. And as for Josh Allen? If they’re winning, it’s because he’s running wild. If they’re losing, he’ll have to run wild.

The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose

Down to 9-9 with these at BetMGM,  as the Cowboys failed spectacularly. Now: With four games on the docket is a three-team teaser ever going to be a good bet? I’m sure not, but why stop now. Ravens -3.5, 49ers -3.5, Lions giving a half-point.

Favorite that makes me nervous

Nailed the Eagles as the nervous favorite last week. This week I think it has to be the Bills. 

The Mahomes-led Chiefs offense is always going to be dangerous until proven otherwise, and the Chiefs defense is not to be trifled with. This feels like a 20-17, last team to have the ball wins kind of game.

Player props I like

Got a pair of W’s last week with Jahmyr Gibbs going over both his receiving yards and receptions prop, up to — barf — 22-37 on the season.

This week, I like the props I parlayed above as well as …

Deebo Samuel over 15.5 rushing yards at -114 at FanDuel: Continuing the 49ers theme from above, I expect them to run all over the Packers. Why not Samuel?

Baker Mayfield over 275, 300, 325, and 350 passing yards at FanDuel at +132, +230, +400, and +700: Obviously these are not full-unit bets, but I really think the Bucs are going to come out throwing and not stop throwing.

Did I Win The DraftKings Milly Maker?

I continue my perfect career of never winning the Milly Maker, thank you very much.

My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week

Finished the regular season at 9-9, then took the Cowboys last week.

Mmm-hmm.

Gimme the Ravens laying 9.5 this week. Here we go!