NFL Divisional Round Expert Picks: Top Prop Picks for All 4 Games

Our Sportsbook Review analysts put together their NFL Divisional Round expert picks based on the best NFL odds.

The NFL postseason delivered one heck of an opening salvo over Wild Card Weekend. And we could be in store for another epic weekend in the Divisional Round.

Kicking off on Saturday, the matchups feature both top seeds as substantial favorites against sizzling teams led by young quarterbacks who recently delivered historic performances. The Baltimore Ravens aim to overcome the haunting memories of 2019 as they take on the Houston Texans and their rookie sensation, C.J. Stroud. Then, the Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love confronts his most challenging test to date against the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers.

Sunday's lineup kicks off with the Detroit Lions hosting their second home playoff game in three decades, facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers following their dominant victory in the wild-card round. The day's highlight is the prime-time matchup, as the Buffalo Bills play host to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. This game marks the third playoff meeting between superstar quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

To accompany our NFL player props and best bets and NFL Divisional Round predictions, here are our NFL Divisional Round expert picks for all four games; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL Divisional Round expert picks

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a kid sportsbook

Top NFL Divisional Round picks

Rachaad White Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Or Rachaad White Over 3.5 receptions (+128 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

You have your choice of the Over on either Rachaad White’s receiving yards or receptions, with BetRivers providing the best number on both.

One of my favorite bets on Wild Card Weekend was White Under 3.5 receptions at +125 via BetMGM. We’re going back to the well with White, but this time, it’s a couple of Overs showing great value.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' divisional-round game against the Detroit Lions features the second-highest total of the week, and the data suggests White will be much more involved in the passing attack than he was on Wild Card Weekend when he totaled just one catch for three yards.

Across five projection models, White has average projections of 3.55 receptions and 29.85 receiving yards. When we run those numbers against BetRivers’ lines and odds, we’re getting roughly 8% positive expected value on Over 3.5 receptions (+128) and 13% +EV on Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115).

I prefer White’s yardage prop, as BetRivers’ line is two yards shorter than those at the rest of our best sportsbooks and it’s showing a higher expected value. However, if you prefer the plus-money odds of his receptions Over, that’s also a solid bet.

However, I’d advise you not to parlay the two picks together despite it “making sense.” Because the two props are positively correlated, BetRivers is offering just +140 odds on Over 20.5 receiving yards + Over 3.5 receptions. When you factor in that White could easily go Over one of those numbers and not the other, 12 points of value for two legs vs. one single simply isn’t worth it.

Therefore, if you want longer odds, target the receptions. If you want a higher EV, go for the yardage.

–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | )

Houston Texans +6.5 first half (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Or Under 22.5 first half (-105 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As our C Jackson Cowart explained in his rest vs. rust NFL feature, teams haven’t always benefited from having a bye entering the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. While it’s true that teams are 54-24 straight up off a first-round bye since 2002, the ATS record of 16-17-1 leaves a lot to be desired. There is a real chance you are paying a premium to take the rested team in the postseason.

In this case, both the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers actually enter this weekend off a double bye after resting key players in the regular-season finale. And as Cowart pointed out, all five teams have failed to cover the spread in that scenario since 2010.

The Ravens, of course, were one of those teams that fell flat after the double bye as the No. 1 seed in 2019, when they suffered a 28-12 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Because that memory is so fresh in their minds, I don’t prefer to bet against the Ravens on the full-game line of 9.5. Instead, the better play is to bet on rust by taking the points with Houston via the first-half spread.

With Saturday’s forecast expected to be chilly and windy, points will likely be hard to come by when these two teams meet in Baltimore. That’s why we have seen the market hit the first-half Under, in which the best remaining number is a 22.5 available at ESPN BET.

Assuming the opening stanza is more of a defensive battle, we like Houston’s chances of staying within a touchdown to start things off. This line is as low as 5.5 at some of our best sportsbooks, but Caesars is one of three shops to set this line at 6.5 and is offering +105 odds to take the visiting team. As one of two scarred Baltimore fans in this column, I’ll take that bet.

–– Shane Jackson (SBR | )

Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

While my friends above are dishing out their best twosomes of tasty wagers, you can see all of my favorite prop picks this week in my NFL Divisional Round player props column, which I'll be updating throughout the weekend.

Spoiler alert: I'll certainly be laying some money on this prop, which is dealing at stubbornly favorable odds at Caesars even as the rest of the market offers Allen at -115 odds or worse to score a touchdown. These odds aren't quite as juicy as the +100 opening price from earlier this week, but it remains one of my top plays of the weekend.

As I mentioned in my Chiefs vs. Bills prediction, Allen has reached paydirt in 13 of his 18 starts this season, including six of his last seven games under interim coordinator Joe Brady. That midseason coaching change has unlocked Allen as a rusher, as the Buffalo Bills QB has seen 34 carries over the last three weeks - his most in a three-game stretch all season - and helped bury the Pittsburgh Steelers with his legs last week.

Allen has historically relied on his wheels in this matchup, tallying four of his 23 career games with 10-plus carries despite facing the Kansas City Chiefs just six times overall. That's the best way to neutralize the Chiefs' constant pressure, and it's my favorite way to handicap what should be the best game of the weekend.

–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | )

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.