NFL Playoffs expert picks, odds: Predictions for Chiefs vs. Bengals and Eagles vs. 49ers

Four of the best teams in football enter Sunday’s AFC and NFC Championship games, and the betting odds reflect how close these teams are. For the first time since 1997, both spreads are less than a field goal. Our experts made their picks, and they’re also conflicted as there’s no clear pick for either game. Both games will be amongst the most bet games of 2023 with the Super Bowl being the most bet on game.

This is the third trip for the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game in the last four years. This is the first trip for the Eagles since their Super Bowl run in 2018. The Eagles and 49ers didn’t meet during the regular season. The two teams did meet in the 2021 season, with the 49ers beating the Eagles 17-11 in Philadelphia.

Joe Burrow versus Patrick Mahomes is quickly becoming the AFC’s hottest new rivalry. The two star quarterbacks will meet Sunday in the AFC Championship for the second straight year. Mahomes was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and said in a press conference that he will play.

This is the fifth straight time the Chiefs have hosted the AFC Championship.

Favorites finished 3-1 in the divisional round straight up, but only went 2-2 against the spread. Dogs are 6-4 against the spread this postseason. Unders went 4-0 this weekend and are 5-5 during the playoffs.

Odds are from BetMGM.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

3 p.m. ET on FOX

The Philadelphia Eagles have been the NFC’s best team from the very start of the season and have just one more obstacle in front of them to get back to the Super Bowl. It is Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles are nearly a field goal favorite going into the game after dominating the New York Giants last round.

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET Sunday from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The game will be televised nationally on FOX.

While the Eagles looked unstoppable on Saturday night against the Giants, they are getting a very different challenge this week against a 49ers team that is not only coming into the game on a white-hot run, but also has very few weaknesses anywhere on its roster.

The one weakness the Eagles might be able to exploit: San Francisco’s difficulty with scrambling quarterbacks. Including the playoffs, the 49ers rank 19th in the league in success rate against quarterback runs (50 percent success rate), but have especially struggled against quarterback scrambles where the success rate drops down to only 32 percent (26th in the league).

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of the best running quarterbacks in the league after accounting for 760 yards on the ground during the regular season. He is also one of the best short-yardage quarterbacks in the league being nearly unstoppable on quarterback sneaks.

Including the playoffs, the Eagles have won each of Hurts’ past seven starts.

This will be another significant test for Purdy as he looks to continue his improbable run going from Mr. Irrelevant to potential Super Bowl starting quarterback. The 49ers are still undefeated in Purdy’s starts, while Sunday will be the first time they have been underdogs in any of those games.

Sunday’s game against Dallas was the first time Purdy went against one of the league’s top defenses this season, and it was probably his worst game of the year. But he was still good enough to get the win.

The 49ers also have an outstanding defense that has helped give their offense (and Purdy) some short fields to work with, but he has still done well when facing a long field. With Purdy, the 49ers have started 49 drives where they have been at least 70 yards away from the end zone. They still average 2.67 points per drive on such drives, the highest mark in the league during that stretch. The Eagles have been the second-best team in the league on such drives since then.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

6:30 p.m. ET on CBS 

The Cincinnati Bengals are one game away from a return trip to the Super Bowl, and for the second year in a row it is the Kansas City Chiefs standing in their way. This time the Bengals are not going in as plucky underdogs riding a hot playoff streak. Despite playing on the road and going into Kansas City the Bengals are less than a field goal favorite.

Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will be televised nationally on CBS.

This is the first time since the 2017 NFC Championship Game that the home team has been an underdog going into a conference championship game. The Eagles were slight underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings in that game but ultimately won on their way to a Super Bowl victory.

There are a couple of factors pushing the belief in the Bengals. For starters, they have looked like the NFL’s best team since starting the year 0-2 and are on a 14-2 run since then. That includes winning 10 consecutive games, including a dominant performance last weekend against Buffalo. They have also won three consecutive games against the Chiefs dating back to last season.

The other major factor is the status of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his ankle. Even though he was able to return to Saturday’s game against Jacksonville for the second half, he did not look to be 100 percent and will be dealing with a high ankle sprain into Sunday. That could seriously limit his ability to avoid the rush and extend plays. Mahomes was only sacked on 11.4 percent of his pressured dropbacks this season, the lowest mark of the 34 qualified quarterbacks in the NFL. His ability to extend plays is a big part of the Chiefs’ offense, and if that is limited against a fierce Bengals defense, it could cause problems.

Mahomes practiced on Wednesday and said he plans to play in a press conference.

The big challenge for the Chiefs defense will be stopping the Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase connection.

Over the past two postseasons, Chase leads all pass catchers in receiving yards (513) and has caught 24 passes that have resulted in either a touchdown or a first down, tied with Kansas City’s Travis Kelce for the most during that stretch.

He has also dominated against the Chiefs in their last three meetings, catching 24 passes on 29 targets for 417 yards and four touchdowns.