NFL Receiving Props 2023

sportsbookreview.com

07 July 2023

Our best sports betting apps have rolled out a number of NFL receiving props ahead of the 2023 season, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has identified some early picks based on the latest NFL odds.

It’s been a fun initial journey running numbers and checking in on the NFL prop markets. When exploring the passing props and rushing props, there weren’t many brand-name stars presenting value.

That wasn’t the case when examining the receiving props. I was surprised to see a number of elite wide receivers trading at lower-than-expected totals and without a hefty vig.

Here’s a look at my initial NFL receiving props picks and the odds available across our best NFL betting sites.

NFL most receiving yards odds 2023

(odds as of July 6)

NFL most receiving touchdowns odds 2023

(odds as of July 6)

NFL most receptions odds 2023

(odds as of July 6)

NFL receiving props 2023: Picks

A.J. Brown Over 1,050 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Christian Watson Over 799.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Justin Jefferson Over 1,249.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
CeeDee Lamb Over 1,075.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL receiving props 2023: Handicap breakdown

Here’s a quick breakdown of my handicapping process:

Create custom projections for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns
Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
Convert the probability to odds
Compare my odds with the numbers across our best live betting sites

NFL receiving props 2023: Predictions

A.J. Brown Over 1,050 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

This bet checks all the boxes.

There’s significant room for Brown to regress from his career-high 1,496 receiving yards in 2023 and still clear this benchmark. And of course, the outlier low total DraftKings is hanging only sweetens the deal.

The Philadelphia Eagles offense' proved to be the perfect landing spot for Brown, and he capitalized on his A+ athleticism during Year 1 in Philly.

I'm projecting Brown to finish with 1,157 receiving yards, which is a 22.7% downtick from his 2022 total.

Placing this bet through DraftKings leads to an immediate edge. I wouldn’t be surprised if that shop moves its total closer to what’s trading across our other best sportsbooks.

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Christian Watson Over 799.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

It took some time for Watson to find his way as a pro in 2022 following early-season injuries and inconsistencies. But the North Dakota State standout was a force once he found his footing.

Watson piled up 31 receptions, 523 yards, and seven touchdowns over the final eight games of the 2022 campaign.

I’m not expecting him to show off that All-Pro pace across an entire season. But his explosive size-speed combo should enable him to put together a solid sophomore showing.

The elephant in the room is the Green Bay Packers turning to first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love. But I’m not convinced there’s an enormous dropoff from the version of longtime Packers starter Aaron Rodgers we saw in 2022. After all, the four-time MVP chucked it up for just 6.8 yards per attempt while grading as the 14th-best quarterback, according to Pro Football Focus.

I’ve got Watson projected for 881 receiving yards.

I always find it interesting when a higher total with lower odds presents more expected value, as is the case here with what’s available through BetMGM and DraftKings. Both check out as solid bets. One is just better.

Justin Jefferson Over 1,249.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This BetMGM total is wrong, and it won’t last.

Jefferson soared over this benchmark as a rookie in 2020, and his receiving yards have climbed in consecutive years since. In fact, I consider my 1,440 receiving yards projection in 2023 to be incredibly conservative.

The Minnesota Vikings are set for an awkward awakening after going 13-4 in 2022. Their defense might be even worse than the unit that allowed 25.1 points per game, the third-most in the NFL.

As a result, I’m expecting quarterback Kirk Cousins to be airing it out as much as ever, and for Jefferson to top 150 targets for a third consecutive year.

I don’t expect to find another receiving-yards total this offseason with a positive expected value as high as what’s attached to this prop through BetMGM. My numbers are right in line with the FanDuel offering, which is a 150-yard difference.

CeeDee Lamb Over 1075.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

It’ll take an injury for Lamb to fall short of this receiving-yards total.

He’s annually improved statistically since debuting in 2020 and the Oklahoma product sits atop the wide receiver depth chart in Big D. Lamb topped this number on just 120 targets in 2021, and last season it was a cakewalk to 1,359 yards on 156 looks.

Lamb also only added 380 receiving yards to his ledger across five games while quarterback Dak Prescott was sidelined last season, and I have him projected for 1,159 receiving yards in 2023.

FanDuel is offering the best value to back the Over, with DraftKings and BetMGM also hanging favorable totals.