NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 15: Will Panthers Notch Second Win?
We're offering our top three NFL upset picks for Week 15 based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps as we look to build upon a profitable 2-1 Week 14 slate.
For the second consecutive week (and only the second time all season), the week's top moneyline favorite experienced an upset, with the Miami Dolphins (-900) losing at home on Monday Night Football to the Tennessee Titans. In Week 14, favorites collectively recorded a 7-8 straight-up performance, and four of the top six favorites suffered losses. This provided bettors numerous opportunities to profit by supporting underdogs on the moneyline.
The only one of our top three picks in Week 14 that lost was the Las Vegas Raiders. They allowed just three points while being in the lowest-scoring NFL game since 2007.
Here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 15 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL upset picks: Week 15
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NFL upset predictions
Steelers vs. Colts (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Pittsburgh Steelers made history of the wrong kind after their Thursday night loss to the New England Patriots, becoming the first team over .500 to lose consecutive games to squads that were each at least eight games under .500. However, while Pittsburgh is one of four teams with a winning record and a negative point differential, Indianapolis joins it on that list. The Colts have been a much better road team (5-2) than at home (2-4) in 2023.
Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew has established a great rapport with wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., as he's produced a 95 QBR while averaging 90 yards per game over the previous four contests entering Week 14. That's the fifth-highest from a QB-WR duo (minimum 25 targets).
However, Pittsburgh boasts the perfect foil for Pittman in cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who allowed a league-best one reception for every 21 coverage snaps entering Week 14. And while the Steelers are 1-2 in their previous three games, they've outgained their opponents twice during that span after starting the season with fewer total yards than each of their first 10 foes. Thus, we're optimistic better days are ahead for Pittsburgh as it fights to be .500 or greater for the 17th consecutive season under head coach Mike Tomlin.
BetMGM is our go-to shop for this wager, as it's alone among our best sportsbooks while offering better than +120 odds to back the Steelers.
Bears vs. Browns (+145 via BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Cleveland Browns are amid their longest home winning streak (four games) since 2019 and are off to their best home start (6-1) since 2007. Additionally, while the Browns are the first team since the Texans in 2015 to have four different quarterbacks win a game (and Joe Flacco is coming off his 100th career regular-season victory), that inconsistency at the position should catch up to them sooner or later.
The Chicago Bears are no pushover in this matchup, especially after holding the Detroit Lions to their fewest total yards (267) this season and fewest points (13) since Week 7. Chicago holds momentum with a two-game winning streak for the first time since 2021, and the team entered Week 14 allowing the second-lowest success rate on rushing attempts. While the Bears allowed 140 rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry to the Lions last week, they overcame that while sacking Jared Goff four times, hitting him nine times, and limiting the signal-caller to a 36.8 QBR (his third-lowest of the season).
Chicago is much better at home (3-3) than on the road (2-5), but it's still capable of an upset. Bears backers will get to choose from three of the best sports betting sites, though FanDuel (+144) and Caesars (+143) all offer similar odds.
Panthers vs. Falcons (+148 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Carolina Panthers have been underdogs of a field goal or lower three times in 2023, suffering a three-point loss twice. Carolina needs to protect rookie quarterback Bryce Young better, as he's been sacked 47 times, which is already the third-most in Panthers single-season history. However, the Falcons rank in the bottom seven of the league with 27 sacks, and we hold more confidence in Young and the Panthers at home, as they're 0-8 on the road for the second time in franchise history.
The Panthers played the Falcons in Young's first professional start in Week 1, a 24-10 loss in Atlanta. However, Carolina registered 20 first downs to Atlanta's 13 while outgaining the Falcons by 60 yards in that meeting. We expect the Panthers to play tough again if they can cut the three turnovers out from that matchup. Carolina has also been competitive at home, with two of its four losses coming by one possession.
Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder is 5-1 against the spread in division games during his career, but he's just 2-5 straight up across seven road starts. In addition, Arthur Smith's team is just 4-9 ATS in 2023, and his squads are 8-15-1 ATS in November or later during his coaching career.
Caesars provides great value on Carolina’s moneyline odds compared to the rest of our top best live betting sites, as FanDuel is the only other shop (+142) offering better than +140 odds.
NFL upset picks made 12/12/2023 at 6:11 a.m. ET.
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