NFL Week 1 predictions: Picks against spread for every game

The Giants are going to have to hope the numbers at the sportsbooks do not translate to the scoreboard in the 2023 NFL season.

Though they went 9-7-1 last season and tacked on a playoff victory, the Giants’ season win total is 7.5 at DraftKings, with the -120 vig ominously attached to the Under.

That’s been a popular play this offseason. The narrative is clear.

Big Blue’s record was inflated by wins over the dregs of the league — including the Panthers, Bears, Texans and Colts. … They won a lot of close games. … The 0-5 combined record versus the Eagles and Cowboys and 38-7 playoff loss at Philly were closer to the truth. … In short, the Giants are headed for a regression in 2023.

It’s hard to argue with all of that, but there’s also this: After wandering through a wasteland of Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge, the Giants hired the Coach of the Year in Brian Daboll, then they kept coordinators Mike Kafka and Wink Martindale, who had interviewed for head-coaching jobs.

There’s finally stability — and on the offensive side, there are people who understand how to utilize the talents of QB Daniel Jones.

The Giants don’t have a ton of talent, but GM Joe Schoen has accumulated enough to give Daboll a chance.

With Saquon Barkley, Darren Waller, new deep-threat Jalin Hyatt and what looks to be a fairly strong offensive line, Jones should have time and options.

This would make his running skills even more dangerous, because they will be more of a surprise than a necessity.

We’ll learn a lot right away, as the Cowboys visit MetLife Stadium under the lights Sunday. Dallas has won 11 of the past 12 meetings.

The Giants are full field-goal home underdogs, a bit of a slap. If they are true contenders, they should start showing it here.

The first selection of my 30th season in The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide is Giants +3.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young played a lot in preseason for Carolina and it didn’t look good, as he has a suspect offensive line and limited weapons. Figuring rookie RB Bijan Robinson will have an immediate impact for Atlanta.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-9.5) over Houston Texans

Was interested in the Texans when the spread was double digits, but now I’m focused on Baltimore providing a rough welcome for QB C.J. Stroud and rookie coach DeMeco Ryans. Looking forward to seeing what Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. can do with Lamar Jackson.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati is my Super Bowl pick, but this is a rough scenario with Joe Burrow coming off a preseason calf injury. He’s also just 1-4 in five starts against the Browns, who loom as a solid divisional home ’dog here.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Another divisional home ’dog, though I admit it’s more of a stretch, as many peg the Colts as one of the worst teams in the NFL. There’s not much for new coach Shane Steichen and QB Anthony Richardson to work with. But the Jaguars have largely been anointed as a contender, and they’ve been looking at this “easy” game for months, possibly a bad combination.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Much like the Giants, the Vikings are candidates for a regression after going 13-4 despite a negative point differential. You had to see it to believe such a thing was possible. Not a Baker Mayfield fan, but the Bucs still have the defense to keep this tight.

Tennessee Titans (+3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

With Derrick Henry and the WR combo of DeAndre Hopkins and a healthy Treylon Burks, the Titans could look a little different for new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly. Not sure how Derek Carr will fare in New Orleans, but his debut won’t be easy as he’s missing Alvin Kamara (suspended).

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+2) over San Francisco 49ers

Though San Francisco has the talent edge, this looks to be a good fade spot. Are we really sure Brock Purdy is better than Kenny Pickett? Will Nick Bosa and his full wallet play or contribute much after missing camp? Mike Tomlin is 13-5-2 ATS all-time as a home underdog in the regular season, per foxsports.com.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-7) over Arizona Cardinals

I’ve been grabbing the points pretty much everywhere, but I can’t go there, here. Not with Arizona seemingly in Cave for Caleb mode before the season even begins. Interested to see if Sam Howell can get the Commanders into the end zone more often from the red zone.

CHICAGO BEARS (-1) over Green Bay Packers

This will be a huge sea change for the Packers, going from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. It doesn’t help Love that his top two receivers — Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson — are both dealing with hamstring problems. And it’ll be hard for the Packers defense to contain Justin Fields and the Bears’ speed.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+4) over Philadelphia Eagles

Bill Belichick as a home ’dog of more than a field goal? Um, OK! This is more a fade of the Eagles, who will have to get used to two new coordinators. There’s also the Super Bowl losers’ jinx — 4-19 ATS in Week 1 the past 23 seasons per foxsports.com.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Love Sean Payton, but he might be distracted by the wrong stuff — Nathaniel Hackett, Gilligan hats, Russell Wilson kissing babies. Raiders now have reliable-when-healthy Jimmy Garoppolo to work with Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams.

Miami Dolphins (+3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Probably the toughest game of the week to try to predict. Miami was 8-5 straight up in games Tua Tagovailoa started but lost his last four. That included a 28-10 defeat at the Chargers in which Tagovailoa went 10 of 28 for 145 yards. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has had many months to figure out how to respond.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5.5) over Los Angeles Rams

Without Cooper Kupp, this shapes up as a long three hours for the Rams against the Seahawks and their 12th Man. Geno Smith is loaded with receivers as Jaxon Smith-Njigba joins DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

MONDAY

NEW YORK JETS (+2.5) over Buffalo Bills

There are decades worth of battle scars with the Jets. Recently they’ve been terrible, but there have been times when some of us have bought in, only to get slapped down. I picked Aaron Rodgers for 2023 MVP because I think this time it’s going to work.

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GM Joe Douglas has loaded the roster with emerging stars and quality veterans. The defense is so good, Rodgers won’t have to score all that much to turn some of the usual losses into wins. The quarterback, in turn, will help the defense stay fresh, and playing with leads will unleash the pass rush.

Is that a dream sequence or the new reality? We’ll begin to find out Monday night.

BEST BETS: Commanders, Seahawks, Jets.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Commanders (Locks finished 10-12 in 2022).