NFL Week 16 predictions: Picks against spread for every Sunday and Monday game

What’s two plus four plus six plus seven?

For the Jets, the answer is zero. As in, last Sunday at Miami, two quarterbacks plus four turnovers plus six sacks plus seven penalties equaled zero points in a 30-0 loss to the Dolphins.

This disaster came on the heels of the Jets’ only victory since the beginning of November, the 30-6 takedown of the Texans. Even that score was a bit misleading as it was 0-0 at the half before Zach Wilson put together his best 30 minutes as a Jet to finish with 301 yards and two touchdowns, and the defense KO’d C.J. Stroud and tortured his replacement.

Now here come the Washington Commanders to MetLife Stadium on Sunday. They provide a good example of why you have to carefully examine both teams before making a pick in an NFL game. Because if all you’re going on is the Jets’ recent results, you’re missing half the story.

The Commanders have lost five in a row and 10 of their past 12. They rank last in the NFL defensively in yards allowed and points allowed. It looks as if coach Ron Rivera will be fired at the end of the season, if not sooner.

That’s different than the Jets’ situation, where it appears the staff will be back to coach Aaron Rodgers next season — unless Woody Johnson goes nuclear. So in terms if “Let’s get outta here” vs. “Let’s try to get one,” the Jets seem to have a bit of an edge.

No, I’m not thrilled about picking the Jets to win, especially by more than a field goal. But the one really good unit in this game is the Jets’ defense. Hoping that’s enough.

The pick: Jets -3.

Line flipped with the Falcons becoming small favorites, possibly because bettors like Taylor Heinicke more than Desmond Ridder. I don’t see a reason to come off the Colts, who have won five of their past six games, get Jonathan Taylor back and have an extra day of rest.

Carolina broke its six-game skid with a 9-7, last-second win over Atlanta. But QB Bryce Young has now gone seven games in a row without hitting the 200-yard passing mark. Packers got to 6-6 by beating Lions and Chiefs before losing to Giants and Bucs. Time for this team to step it back up.

Another game in which the line flipped favorites. Seems as if there’s some Joe Flacco mania combined with Stroud missing another game. Flacco, however, has problems with his calf, and four of his offensive linemen and his top two running backs were listed as questionable midweek.

I’m a little hesitant to give the hook to the Vikings at home off a 300-yard passing game by Nick Mullens and with Justin Jefferson shaking off the rust. The Lions have scored at least 30 points seven times, and if they’re on, it’ll be hard for Mullens to keep up.

Seahawks travel long distance on short rest after a huge Monday night win over the Eagles. Normally that’s a red flag, but now they have Geno Smith coming back against a Titans team that just got eliminated from contention and might have to hand the ball back to Ryan Tannehill.

Tampa Bay has won three in a row against Carolina, Atlanta and Green Bay. The Jaguars present a step up in class, even though they’ve lost three in a row against a tougher slate. I’d like to back the Jaguars but am hesitant to go there given Trevor Lawrence’s concussion protocol status at midweek. Even if he plays, the Bucs should knock him around.

Two weeks ago, the Cardinals came east and beat the Steelers by two TDs. It was their only road win of the season, but it was a nice one. They also luck into a 54-degree, late-December day at Soldier Field.

Dallas is 3-4 on the road this season and has been hammered by both the Niners and Bills in foreign territory. The Dolphins should get Tyreek Hill back but have some injuries on the offensive line. Though the Cowboys’ pass rush has the ability to put some hits on Tua Tagovailoa, I think Mike McDaniel will have some surprises for the Dallas D.

Sort of a mathematics-aided choice here, as both teams rank in the bottom eight in the NFL in offensive yardage, but on defense the Patriots rank eighth and Broncos 31st. Figuring Bailey Zappe can do enough to keep this margin under a touchdown and possibly even pull the upset.

The Raiders have had an extra few days off after putting up 63 points on the Chargers. They lost 31-17 at home to the Chiefs on Nov. 26, getting pasted after going out to a 14-0 lead. Still, the Raiders are a rejuvenated and rested team right now, and those double digits look nice.

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The Tommy Cutlets train derailed in the Big Easy, as he was swarmed by the Saints’ defense. However, I do believe there’s still some good energy with Tommy DeVito and that the Giants’ offense will have some success at the Linc against an Eagles team that traveled cross country off a tough Monday night loss. They need a win to end a three-game skid and won’t be focusing on covering the big spread.

A potential Super Bowl preview featuring two teams that are in the top six on offense and top 10 in defense. We’ve been riding this 49ers wave, a six-game winning streak all by double-digits. Figuring the Ravens will be able to get this into a back-and-forth, physical affair, and that spread looms awfully large.

Best bets: Colts, Lions, Dolphins
Lock of the week: Colts (Locks 4-10-1 in 2023)
Last week: 6-8-1 overall, 1-1-1 Best Bets
Thursday: Rams (W)