NFL Week 11 picks against the spread, over/under to bet on

The main takeaway from the Sunday slate of Week 10 in the NFL was game-winning kicks.

Five games, including three of the four 4:05 p.m. or later games, were decided on a last second, game winning field goal that gave the Texans, Browns, Cardinals, Lions, and Seahawks all victories.

While I've noted in weeks past that this has been a great season to bet the under in matchups, the over was the better play Sunday as eight of the 12 games exceeded their totals.

Week 11 provides a new challenge as 36 percent of matchups have double digit spreads to start the week.

I got my bonus bet of Bills-Broncos under 47.5 points from Monday night, and it was a solid Sunday as I went 4-1 against the spread. The only loss never had a chance as Jaguars +3 was doomed from the beginning after they went down 10-0 in the first quarter.

Here's my record for the 2023 season:

2023 record: 28-32-1

Against the spread: 23-27-1

Bonus Bets: 5-5

Here are five teams to bet on against the spread for Week 11, including one over/under to wager on:

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Let's face it. It's been a brutal first half for Green Bay in the post Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers era.

After a 2-1 start, the Packers have lost five of their last six games and are 1-4 in one score contests this season.

However, I'm taking the points with Green Bay in this one.

The Packers, who have struggled offensively this entire season, should get a much needed boost play against this Chargers' defense. Los Angeles just surrendered a whopping 533 total yards of offense in a 41-38 loss to the Lions in Week 10.

Furthermore, the Chargers have allowed a league-high 291.2 passing yards per game in 2023, nearly 25 more yards than the next team (Buccaneers 266.9 passing yards allowed per game).

With both teams 4-5 against the spread this season, this feels like a true toss up and I'm riding with taking Green Bay and the points in what could be a true offensive shootout at Lambeau Field.

If you're on the Packers, bet them now at +3.5 at -115 (Bet $115 to win $100) on either PointsBet or DraftKings Sportsbook as this number could move with a majority of sportsbooks having this game as a field goal spread.

Washington Commanders (-9.5) vs. New York Giants

The Commanders nearly pulled off the upset as 6.5-point underdogs last week in the Pacific Northwest versus the Seahawks but were one of the teams that lost on an aforementioned last second field goal.

Now back home, Washington welcomes in a Giants' team that's given up 79 points over the past two weeks and have not scored more than 20 points in their week two 31-28 victory against the Cardinals nearly two months ago.

The Commanders have been average (5-4-1) ATS this season while the G-Men have not covered in seven of 10 games this year.

It's always a risky play when betting on a double digit favorites against a division opponent but as long as Washington scores 20+ points they should cover with ease.

Wager on the Commanders now at -9.5 at -115 on FanDuel Sportsbook as all other major sportsbooks have them as a 10-point favorite at home.

Houston Texans (-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The talk of the league is Texans' rookie QB C.J. Stroud and for good reason.

The No. 2 overall pick from this year's draft has soared to a massive -2000 favorite (Bet $2000 to win $100) after leading back-to-back come back victories against the Buccaneers and Bengals.

Now they're back home and taking on a Cardinals defense that's giving up the fifth-most points per game (26.3 points per game) and rushing yards per contest (134.2 yards per game).

While Cardinals' QB Kyler Murray led the team to their first victory in seven weeks, I expect that'll have a much tougher time on the road here against a high flying Texans' team led by Stroud.

I'm betting Houston wins this one by a touchdown or more and would lay the four points at -110 on multiple sportsbooks.

Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Rams' head coach Sean McVay announced Monday afternoon that QB Matthew Stafford is expected to be back under center after he missed their Week 9 matchup due to a right thumb injury.

Neither of these NFC West teams have been great against the spread the past six weeks as they've combined to go 2-9-1 ATS over that span.

With that being said, I lean towards Los Angeles here. If Stafford plays, he's won all three meetings against Seattle as a member of the Rams, with each of those victories coming by 10 or more points.

The Seahawks own one of the best records in the NFC at 6-3 but have been inconsistent at times. They've also struggled in their past two games on the road, getting outscored 54-16 versus the Bengals and Ravens.

It's my least confident play of the group but with Stafford back in action, take the point with the Rams here as they pull off the upset as a home underdog.

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best available price of -108 (Bet $108 to win $100) for the Rams at +1.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The game of the week and potentially this season comes on Monday night when the Eagles and Chiefs meet in a Super Bowl 57 rematch to close out Week 11.

It should be noted that both teams are coming off of a bye week. In Week 9, Philadelphia took down the Cowboys 28-23 and Kansas City defeated the Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany.

This is a matchup of two of the league's best yet again as they're both 7-2 better with the Eagles sporting the best record in the NFL at 8-1.

If the Chiefs are to win, I believe it's a slow, defensive battle. However, I think we're more in store for an offensive shootout like we saw between the Lions and Chargers this past Sunday where the last team with the ball gets the victory.

Regardless, this will almost all but certainly be a close game throughout and give the upper hand to the better team right now in Philadelphia even on the road against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

FanDuel Sportsbook and bet365 have the shortest line for the Eagles to cover the +3 spread at -110.

Bonus bet: Denver Broncos-Minnesota Vikings UNDER 43.5 points (-110)

While we might be in store for a primetime shootout on Monday night, I'm on the under for this Sunday evening affair.

The Vikings have gone below this total in three of five road games while the Broncos have hit this under in 60 percent of their home matchups in 2023.

Denver's defense has also played much better recently. After giving up 181 points through the first five weeks, the Broncos have only allowed 67 points in its previous four games.

With both teams ranking middle of the pack or worse in pace of play, I expect we see a slow, defensive led contest on Sunday night.

The total varies on different sportsbooks but the best bet for the under 43.5 points is at -110 on BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.