NFL Week 16 Bad Beats

Another week in football betting is firmly in the books as a festive Week 16 in the NFL writes its chapter. There were some surprises, stunning upsets and more eliminations as the playoff field narrowed further.

By the stats: The favorites went 10-6-0 straight-up (SU) but only 7-9-0 against the spread (ATS). Home favorites went 6-10-0 SU and just 5-11-0 ATS while the under went 10-6-0 in total betting.

Below, we dive into the week’s action. In the main, we’re spotlighting the bad beats and backdoor covers that shaped key outcomes at the sportsbook betting exchange. Basically, the good, the bad and the ugly of Week 16 NFL picks against the spread, straight up and in totals.

Let’s check the latest NFL picks, stats, injury reports, and NFL predictions. We’ve plenty of NFL expert picks for you to consider.

Week 16 NFL Betting Highlights

• The Kansas City Chiefs (-10) were the biggest home favorites to win and cover in a 24-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks.
• The Buffalo Bills (-9) were the biggest road favorites to win and cover in a 35-13 win over the Chicago Bears.
• The Green Bay Packers (+3½) were the biggest road underdogs to win outright in a 26-20 win over the Miami Dolphins.
• The Los Angeles Rams (+3) were the biggest home underdogs to win outright in a 51-14 win over the Denver Broncos.
• The Arizona Cardinals (+8) were the biggest home underdogs to cover in a 19-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• The New York Giants (+4½) were the biggest road underdogs to cover in a 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings

Buccaneers vs Cardinals

• Closing line: Buccaneers -8.
• Closing total O/U 41½
• Final Score: 19-16 OT

After doing absolutely nothing on offense the entire game, the Buccaneers managed to pull out the win seemingly out of nowhere. Thus, robbing a beleaguered Kliff Kingsbury and his even more beleaguered Cards of the outright upset.

The Buccaneers went into the fourth quarter trailing 16-6, but a touchdown drive saw them close the gap to three points. Then, a fumble recovery by defensive end William Gholston at the 4:49 mark of the fourth quarter gave Tom Brady the opportunity to engineer a game-tying drive and send the game into overtime, where kicker Ryan Succop delivered the 40-yarder for the much-needed win.

All told, Arizona side bettors still managed to take the cover in the 19-16 overtime loss – small consolation though it is for what could have been a seismic upset across NFL betting markets.

Broncos vs Rams

• Closing line: Broncos -3.
• Closing total O/U 41½
• Final Score: 51-14

This wasn’t your classic bad beat or backdoor cover that turned the betting market on its head. This was just literally a BAD BEAT, full stop.

Russell Wilson [is that you, Santa?] tossed three interceptions, two right out of the gates to set an ominous tone for what quickly descended into a forgettable night for the Denver Broncos and, ultimately, led to the untimely firing of head coach Nathaniel Hackett the following day.

From start to finish, this was a total disaster for Denver. By the end of the first quarter, the Rams were up 17-3, capitalizing on both of Wilson’s turnovers with touchdowns. By the end of the half, the Rams were up 31-6!

The second half began the way the first did, with Wilson throwing an interception. Although Wilson would later lead a touchdown scoring drive and a successful two-point conversion, the Broncos had dug themselves into a massive hole by then (41-14). Brett Rypien took over and gifted another interception that was returned for a touchdown.

Talk about a lump of coal for Christmas Day!

Eagles vs Cowboys

• Closing line: Cowboys -4.
• Closing total O/U 48
• Final Score: 40-34

The Eagles looked to be on the way to defying the NFL odds, as Gardner Minshew, playing in replacement of an injured Jalen Hurts (hence the underdog odds), had the Eagles up 20-17 at the half.

The Eagles looked to be in control behind a 34-27 lead five minutes into the fourth quarter. Until they weren’t.

As has been the case all season long, the fourth quarter is the witching hour! When wins become losses and losses become wins.

Dak Prescott and the ‘Boys flipped the script in a big way, making clutch plays and rising to the occasion. Prescott led a game-tying drive with one of the best plays of the game, finding T.Y Hilton on third-and-30 to keep the drive alive.

Still, the game was tied and the Eagles’ backers were still very much in it. Unfortunately, Minshew and the Eagles’ offense just wasn’t up to snuff. Their final three drives resulted in an interception, fumble and turnover on downs.

The interception set up Prescott on the Dallas 40, and six plays and 31 yards later, the Cowboys kicked the field goal for the 37-34 lead. Then, the fumble on a punt set up the Cowboys at the Philadelphia 22. Five plays and 13 yards later, the Cowboys kicked the 26-yard field goal to take the 40-34 lead at the 1:41 mark.

Minshew and the Eagles got the ball one last time and while they went nine plays for 56 yards, they came up short in the end.

Giants vs Vikings

• Closing line: Vikings -4½.
• Closing total O/U 48
• Final Score: 27-24

The Minnesota Vikings are the gift that keeps on giving as they continue to eke out wins that they seemingly have no business taking, rewarding their moneyline backers once again. Alas, their side bettors have had to sweat it out and this week was no exception as they came up just short.

The Vikings were up 24-17 on the Giants when they gave up the game-tying touchdown in the final two minutes of the game. Star running back Saquon Barkley gashed through Minnesota’s flimsy defense and galloped into the end zone to get the G-men right back into it.

But the Kings of the “one-score game” this season weren’t done. Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense engineered a last-gasp drive and set up Greg Joseph for the field goal attempt, albeit a staggering 61-yarder that exceeded his previous career long of 56 yards by five yards.

Daunting though it was, Joseph didn’t flinch and punched it through the posts with aplomb. Thus, it was euphoria for Minnesota moneyline betters.

Plus, thanks to Barkley’s game-tying touchdown that salvaged the cover in the heartbreaking 27-24 loss, it gave Giants side bettors cause for celebration.

By that same token, however, the impact was felt on the total. Under bettors looked pretty good when the Vikings led 24-17 with just two minutes left. But, oh yeah, Barkley’s touchdown and then the game-winning field goal pushed the total over the closing 48-point total. Thus, giving over bettors something to cheer about as well and handing under bettors a bad beat.