NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday, April 7th
Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.
All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page
All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
Market Report Recap for Wednesday, April 6th
There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.
Record:
102-87, + 7.47 units, 3.8 percent ROI
Market Report for Thursday, April 7th
It’s a busy Thursday in the NHL with 10 games scheduled.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) at New York Rangers (-110)
Thursday is the last chance that the Penguins must show some life in this season series. Pittsburgh grades out as a better team than New York in most categories, but stylistically, the Rangers seem to be a bad matchup for them. New York has won two out of three meetings between the two teams this season, and they’ve outshot and out chanced the Penguins in all three games according to Evolving Hockey. This is a possible first round matchup, and how the Penguins play in this game will impact how I handicap a playoff series between the two. According to my model, the Penguins should be priced around -115.
Buffalo Sabres (+ 300) at Carolina Hurricanes (-360)
The Sabres upset the Hurricanes in Buffalo on Tuesday, winning the game by a score of 4-2. Buffalo has gone 10-7 straight up in the month of March, but Thursday’s game in Carolina is kicks off a road trip that could be dubbed Murderers’ Row, as the Sabres will visit the Panthers, Lightning and Maple Leafs over the next several days. I’m not looking to lay the favorite on Thursday, though, as their offense has been struggling. The Hurricanes have the sixth worst scoring rate in the league since March 1 and while they should be motivated to stay ahead of the Rangers, who are hot on their tail, this is not the spot that I want to be on them to find their scoring touch. There’s also no telling who the Hurricanes will start in goal, as this is the first half of a back-to-back. Carolina will host the Islanders on Friday.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-145) at Dallas Stars (+ 125)
Dallas has won eight of their last 11 games, and that’s got them in a playoff spot, but their schedule has been relatively light, and they haven’t been posting strong underlying numbers against the league’s elite teams. For example, the Stars were in Toronto back on March 15, when superstar Auston Matthews was serving a suspension and rookie goaltender Erik Kallgren was making his first start, and the Maple Leafs dominated that game. Toronto owned 60 percent of the expected goals and about 58 percent of the shot attempts and won the game 4-0. Of course, they won’t have home ice advantage on Thursday, but they will have Auston Matthews this time, and Jack Campbell will likely be between the pipes. The Maple Leafs are peaking right now, having won eight of their last 11 against some tough teams, and they’ve scored six goals or more over their last five games. According to my model, the road team should be priced closer to -155, and therefore, I’m going to lay a small wager on the favorite at -145.
Notes: Stars’ forwards Jacob Peterson (injury) and Denis Gurianov (illness) are questionable.
Pick:
Toronto Maple Leafs -145 (half size)
Edmonton Oilers (-130) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 110)
Los Angeles proved on their road trip through Western Canada that they can cause problems for the likes of the Oilers and Flames, and the former is the team they’re most likely going to match up against in the playoffs. Edmonton won the last game in a shootout, but the Kings were the better team throughout the game, and they grade out as a better team than the Oilers in most meaningful categories. Los Angeles doesn’t have nearly as much high-end talent as the Oilers, but what they lack in skill, they make up for in structure, and the two teams ending up with a similar share of even strength goals is evidence of that. There’s still no Drew Doughty, so + 110 isn’t quite enough to incentivize me to take the dog, but I certainly wouldn’t recommend laying the favorite.
Calgary Flames (-200) at San Jose Sharks (+ 175)
Calgary earned a 4-2 win over the Ducks in Anaheim on Wednesday, but now they’re facing off against a team that has given them trouble all season long. The Sharks have won three games versus the Flames this season, by a combined score of 13-7, and the last two times these teams have met, the Flames blew a 3-1 lead and lost. Calgary has what it takes to defeat the Sharks, but San Jose has played well against them. Calgary is 7-0 straight up in road games where their moneyline odds are -175 or higher, and they’ve covered the puck line each time, too. According to my model, the Flames should be priced around -210, and I’ll consider backing them in some capacity if the price comes down.
Notes: Dan Vladar will likely be between the pipes for the Flames.
Bet Summary:
Early Bets:
Toronto Maple Leafs -145 (half size)
Player Prop Bets:
Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI
There are no recommended player prop bets currently.
