Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated betting odds and series probabilities for Monday, May 8th

VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Friday’s episode featured a great chat with guest hockey oddsmaker Jeff Davis from Circa Sports and a new episode will be dropping later today.

Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated betting odds and series predictions for Monday, May 8th

Updated Series Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Florida Panthers (-1200) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+700)
• Dallas Stars (+110) vs Seattle Kraken (-130)
• New Jersey Devils (+155) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-185)
• Edmonton Oilers (-190) vs Vegas Golden Knights (+160)

Carolina leads series 2-1 after Game 3 loss

New Jersey has life after winning Game 3 by a whopping 8-4 score. The Hurricanes had owned roughly 60 percent of the expected goals in the series heading into the game, but the Devils finished the Game 3 with 58 percent edge in expected goals. Vitek Vanecek made his first start in goal for New Jersey since Game 2 of the first round.

I didn’t plan on betting many games in this series unless there was an overadjustment. My hope was that things would work out differently and I wouldn’t be backed into betting on the Hurricanes, but I don’t think they should be priced at +135 so I’m betting on them to win Game 4.

Bet: Carolina Hurricanes (Game 4 Moneyline) +135 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Updated Series Probabilities

Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 63% (-170)

• 5 Games: 19%
• 6 Games: 22%
• 7 Games: 22%

New Jersey Devils Win Series: 37% (+170)

• 5 Games: 8%
• 6 Games: 14%
• 7 Games: 15%

New Jersey will win Game 4 slightly more often than Carolina, according to my hockey model, so we might see them tie another series after dropping the first two games, but the Hurricanes have a 63 percent chance of winning the series as of Monday.

Florida Panthers take lead series 3-0 with overtime win in Game 3

Toronto made the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in 19 years but now face a 0-3 series deficit after the Panthers scored in overtime to take Game 3 in Sunrise. To add salt in the wound, the Maple Leafs lost their starting goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, to injury.

Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner were the three worst Maple Leafs forwards in the game, which helped to cancel out whatever edge Toronto might have had earlier in the series. The Panthers finished with 53 percent of the shots and 56 percent of the expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey.

The Maple Leafs didn’t receive a single power play opportunity in the game, while Florida managed to capitalize on one of their two chances with the man advantage. Toronto has a 7-4 edge in power play opportunities through three games.

Updated Series Probabilities

Florida Panthers Win Series: 91% (-1011)

• 4 Games: 49%
• 5 Games: 22%
• 6 Games: 14%
• 7 Games: 6%

Toronto Maple Leafs Win Series: 9% (+1011)

A lot of steam came in on the Maple Leafs to push Florida’s moneyline odds as high as +145 at some shops, but the Panthers’ win, and other factors, like the injury to Samsonov, have changed the tone of the series and the betting lines with the Panthers opening at +105 for Game 4.

Florida now has the second-best odds (+380) of winning the Stanley Cup. Toronto has the worst odds (25/1) and the Edmonton Oilers are the favorite at 3/1.

Seattle Kraken chase Jake Oettinger and take 2-1 series lead

Stars’ defenseman Miro Heiskanen left the game after being hit in the face by a shot early in the second period. He did not return but head coach Pete DeBoer said that the lopsided score did play into that. The Kraken scored on that play to take a 1-0 lead and things only got worse from there as the Kraken scored five goals in the period and won Game 3 by a score of 7-2. Seattle now leads the best-of-seven series 2-1 and has a chance to take a 3-1 series lead back to Dallas.

Stars’ goaltender Jake Oettinger was pulled after allowing five goals and he’s been outplayed by Kraken goalie Philipp Grubauer. According to Evolving Hockey, Oettinger has allowed almost five goals more this series than an average goaltender would have had they faced the same shots. The 24-year-old was a big reason the Stars were big favorites heading into the second round and he has not lived up to expectations.

Updated Series Probabilities

Seattle Kraken Win Series: 53% (-113)

• 5 Games: 16%
• 6 Games: 21%
• 7 Games: 16%

Dallas Stars Win Series: 47% (+113)

Seattle still has the second-longest odds to win the Stanley Cup at 11/1 odds.

Updated NHL Series Probabilities

• Vegas Golden Knights (+155) at Edmonton Oilers (-180)

Edmonton will look to take their first lead of the series, and based on the odds, they have a good chance to do so. I wouldn’t bet on them at -180, though. My projection is closer to where Vegas is priced at +155, but I’m holding a wager on Edmonton to win the series and I like my position currently.

All bets tracked by third party app Betstamp.