NHL Betting: Moneyline odds, predictions, and best bets for Monday, April 10th

The NHL playoff picture is almost set, teams are still fighting for position as we enter the final week of the regular season. There are 10 games on Monday, and I have one best bet against the current odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

NHL Schedule Breakdown

The following table highlights tired spots and/or days’ rest. The first table contains Monday’s schedule.

Tuesday’s schedule can provide some context when handicapping Monday’s games, though, so I’m including it below. Several teams are playing back-to-back games and, in general, the league has had a condensed schedule since the All-Star Game.

Monday’s NHL Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Buffalo Sabres (+170) at New York Rangers (-200)
• Toronto Maple Leafs (+125) at Florida Panthers (-145)
• New York Islanders (-165) at Washington Capitals (+140)
• Carolina Hurricanes (-180) at Ottawa Senators (+155)
• Dallas Stars (-180) at Detroit Red Wings (+155)
• San Jose Sharks (+245) at Winnipeg Jets (-295)
• Minnesota Wild (-295) at Chicago Blackhawks (+245)
• Nashville Predators (+160) at Calgary Flames (-190)
• Seattle Kraken (-250) at Arizona Coyotes (+210)
• Vancouver Canucks (+165) at Los Angeles Kings (-195)

Visit VSiN NHL Odds to see the full board.

NHL Predictions and Best Bets for Monday

One game stands out as a strong bet on Monday, as the Maple Leafs are currently priced at +125. Read to find out why I believe Toronto is my best NHL bet:

Toronto Maple Leafs (+125) at Florida Panthers (-145)

Toronto has picked things up lately, ranking as a top-five team in expected goals percentage over the last month, and while it hasn’t resulted in the team winning consistently, it’s a positive sign heading into Monday’s game with the Panthers in Sunrise.

Florida has two games remaining to secure a playoff spot. They are currently playing a game of musical chairs with the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Islanders, and one team will be eliminated in the coming days.

Now, this game obviously means a lot more to the Panthers than it does the Maple Leafs, who have secured their position for the playoffs and won’t see their seeding change regardless but considering that some players still have some individual goals in their sights as Mitch Marner is two points away from 100 and Auston Matthews is one goal away from 40.

Toronto will play their upcoming playoff opponent, the Tampa Bay Lightning, on Tuesday, which begs the question: Who will start in goal? Matt Murray is expected to return over the final three games, and I think the Maple Leafs might want to protect Samsonov from the Lightning until the playoffs start. Either way, I think the starting goaltender will be one of the two and I don’t believe Toronto should be priced the way they are.

The Maple Leafs are a solid bet at +125 if Murray starts, and an even better bet if Samsonov is in goal. The prediction below assumes it'll be Murray.

Predictions: Florida – 53.5 percent (-115)

Buffalo Sabres (+170) at New York Rangers (-200)

Buffalo stayed in playoff contention with a come-from-behind win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday. Their two best players, Tage Thompson, and Rasmus Dahlin, led the way, making big plays in the clutch, but it seems like it’ll be too little, too late for the Sabres. With five points separating them from a wild card spot, the Sabres need too much to go right. Still, the Sabres have something to play for. New York, on the other hand, can still catch the New Jersey Devils, but they will have to surpass them in points because the Devils own the tie breaker with five more regulation wins than the Rangers.

Buffalo will be in action again on Tuesday against New Jersey, so it’s unclear who will start in goal. It’s also unclear who the Rangers will have in the crease, but assuming we see Devon Levi and Igor Shesterkin, New York should win approximately around 65 percent of the time.

Prediction: New York – 65.4 percent (-189)

New York Islanders (-165) at Washington Capitals (+140)

Washington has lost six games in a row and their offense ranks among the bottom-10 teams in the league over the last month, as does their defense. Monday’s game against the Islanders will be the first half of a back-to-back for the Capitals, who will be in action against Boston on Tuesday. This makes it difficult to predict who will start in goal for Washington in each game, and it’s also not clear who will start for the Islanders.

Backup goaltender Semyon Varlamov last played on April 1 in relief of Ilya Sorokin, but his last start came on March 25. New York has two games remaining, so they might want to give Sorokin a break before the playoffs start. That said, the Islanders are not securely in a playoff spot, and therefore, sitting their starting goaltender is something they might not be able to afford to do. Then again, Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie, the Capitals two most dangerous scorers, are currently injured and might not be in the lineup.

Predictions: New York – 59.3 percent (-146)

Carolina Hurricanes (-180) at Ottawa Senators (+155)

After the way the Hurricanes blew Saturday’s game versus the Sabres, I’m relieved that my model doesn’t see any value betting on them on Monday in Ottawa. The Senators have had more downs that ups this season, but they’ve shown that they can give good teams, like Carolina, trouble. In fact, the Senators played the Hurricanes on April 4 and forced overtime after battling back from a 2-0 deficit. They’re still missing some important players, though, and it doesn’t look like either Jakob Chychrun or Thomas Chabot will be returning this season.

Predictions: Carolina – 61 percent (-157)

Dallas Stars (-180) at Detroit Red Wings (+155)

Dallas still has a chance to win the Central Division, so they should have incentive to win this one, and Detroit is not a good home team. I’m just not all that high on the Stars.

Predictions: Dallas – 62.5 percent (-166)

San Jose Sharks (+245) at Winnipeg Jets (-295)

A team like Winnipeg should roll the San Jose Sharks, but they’ve lost to this team twice since the start of March, including a 3-0 shutout about two weeks ago. Still, my model doesn’t see the Sharks as much of a threat and it suggests Winnipeg will win more than 75 percent of the time.

Predictions: Winnipeg – 75.8 percent (-303)

Minnesota Wild (-295) at Chicago Blackhawks (+245)

Kirill Kaprizov made his way back to the Minnesota Wild just in time, as the team was starting to slide in his absence. Chicago shouldn’t pose a problem for the Wild, either. The Blackhawks have lost 10 of their last 11 and they’ve only won four games dating back to February 27 thanks to one of the worst offenses in the NHL.

Predictions: Minnesota – 74.9 percent (-299)

Nashville Predators (+160) at Calgary Flames (-190)

Predators’ defenseman Roman Josi was expected to return to the lineup for Saturday’s big game against the Winnipeg Jets, but he didn’t, and he is still listed day-to-day with an injury. Nashville’s slim playoff chances took a big hit after losing that game, but technically, the Predators are still in contention. The Flames are still in the playoff hunt, too, but the odds are not in their favor. Calgary must win every game and hope that things go wrong for other teams that they’re in contention with.

Nashville has been better than Calgary on defense due to Juuse Saros and his outstanding play between the pipes, but their offense has been worse than every other team in the league over the last month and they are still without Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene. That’s the main reason my model doesn’t see enough value to bet on them to beat the Flames.

Predictions: Calgary – 61 percent (-157)

Seattle Kraken (-250) at Arizona Coyotes (+210)

The Kraken beat the Coyotes by a score of 8-1 on April 3 and 4-2 on April 6. Both games were in Seattle. Now, the Kraken will take their explosive offense, which ranks sixth in the NHL over the last month, to Tempe. Mullet Arena has given the Coyotes a big home ice advantage, but they’ve lost four of their last five home games.

Predictions: Seattle – 70.8 percent (-242)

Vancouver Canucks (+165) at Los Angeles Kings (-195)

Vancouver is an intriguing team, but the Kings should win this game more often than the Canucks. The Kings are missing some serviceable players, but my model has them priced at -173, assuming Kevin Fiala is back in the lineup. In other words, even if Fiala doesn’t play, I don’t think +165 is enough to justify betting against the Kings. I mean, the Canucks were just priced at +145 against the Flames at home, and now they’re playing a much stronger team, on the road.

Predictions: Los Angeles – 63.3 percent (-173)

All bets tracked via third part app Betstamp.