NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Penguins vs Red Wings (April 8)

Penguins vs. Red Wings Odds

Saturday’s NHL matinee on ABC features an Eastern Conference matchup as the Detroit Red Wings host the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Pittsburgh has won six of the past nine meetings between these clubs and five of those six victories have been by at least a two-goal margin.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Penguins vs. Red Wings betting pick.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins continue to fight for their playoff lives as they trail the New York Islanders by just one point for the final wild-card spot. In must-win mode, the Penguins will likely lean on their offense.

At 5-on-5, Pittsburgh ranks fifth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). While the Penguins’ blue line is certainly a question, it is backed up by goaltender Tristan Jarry, who is projected to start Saturday and should be a good candidate to back.

Entering this contest in good form, Jarry is 3-2 over his past five starts with a .924 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.42 goals against average (GAA). This strong stretch of hockey is likely to continue against the Detroit Red Wings, a team he’s dominated in the past.

Jarry is 2-0 with a stellar .954 SV% and a 1.50 GAA against the Red Wings. Additionally, Pittsburgh won each of those games by at least three-goals.

Detroit Red Wings

The Penguins boast one of the league’s best offenses at even-strength, but the Red Wings possess one of the league’s worst. Detroit ranks just 21st in goals scored per game, and its underlying metrics are even worse.

At 5-on-5, the Red Wings rank third-to-last in the league in xGF/60. Unfortunately for Detroit, its defense — outside of last season’s Calder Trophy winner Moritz Seider — isn’t much better.

The Red Wings rank 20th in the league in goals allowed per game. Backing up this defensively weak team is goaltender Ville Husso, the confirmed starter for Saturday’s game.

It has been a particularly tough campaign for Husso, who is 26-19-7 with a .899 SV% and a 3.01 GAA. Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, he is 1-3-1 with a troubling .852 SV% and a 3.79 GAA over his past five starts.

Penguins vs. Red Wings Pick

Husso’s poor play could continue against Pittsburgh, a team he is winless against in his career (.895 SV% and a 4.27 GAA). While the Penguins continue to play around .500 this month, it has been profitable to back them on the puck line.

Of Pittsburgh’s past five wins, four have come by at least two-goals. On the flip side, four of Detroit’s past six losses have come by at least two-goals.

With the better offense, goaltender and more to play for, look for the Penguins to grab a much-needed two points with just three games remaining on the schedule.