Blues vs Red Wings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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23 February 2024

Blues vs Red Wings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Saturday's NHL slate opens up with an old Western Conference rivalry when the St. Louis Blues take on the Detroit Red Wings. Both teams sit fourth in their respective divisions, but our NHL picks believe the Blues have the edge in today's contest. Find out why below!

The Detroit Red Wings host the St. Louis Blues on ABC to kick off Saturday’s NHL slate. NHL odds have Detroit as a moderate –144 favorite, while the total sits at 6.5 across the board.

St. Louis has fared well in this matchup over the past couple of seasons, winning seven of the past 11 meetings.

Will the Blues take care of business once again, or can the Wings defend their home ice? Find out in my free NHL picks for Blues vs. Red Wings on Saturday, February 24.

Blues vs Red Wings odds

Blues vs Red Wings predictions

Now is the time to sell high on Detroit, a team that has won three straight games and six of its past nine. This group is primed for regression, especially offensively.

Entering this matchup, the Wings rank sixth in the league in goals scored per game due to their unsustainable 12 shooting percentage. This number is especially unsustainable when you look at their underlying metrics, considering that they are near the bottom of the league in generating high-danger scoring chances.

At 5-on-5, the Red Wings rank 31st in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), sitting only above the Chicago Blackhawks in that category. This expected offensive regression could come against goaltender Jordan Binnington, who is slated to guard the cage for St. Louis on Saturday.

Binnington has put together a tremendous campaign, going 20-15-2 with a .911 SV% and 2.85 GAA. He is coming off a wonderful shutout performance over the New York Islanders, stopping all 38 shots he faced en route to a 4-0 victory.

Over his past nine starts, Binnington is 6-3 with a commanding .933 SV% and 2.12 GAA. This success could continue against Detroit, a team he is 2-1 against in his career.

This season, the Blues rank higher than the Wings in goals allowed per game, shots on goal allowed per game, and penalty minutes taken per game. Considering the massive offensive regression that is expected for Detroit, it is worth taking a shot on the underdogs at +120.

My best bet: Blue moneyline (+120 at bet365)

Blues vs Red Wings same-game parlay

Blue moneyline

Under 6.5 goals

While Binnington is likely to shut down a Detroit offense that is due for regression, St. Louis may also struggle to light the lamp frequently against goaltender Alex Lyon, who is confirmed to start between the pipes for the Wings. Through 26 appearances in the crease this season, Lyon boasts a .914 SV% and 2.75 GAA.

There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in two of his past three starts. There were also just five goals scored in Lyon’s lone career start against the Blues.

Both offenses also rank in the bottom four of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. With that said, Detroit ranks lower and the gap between their actual production and underlying metrics is wider than St. Louis’, which again furthers that point of expected regression.

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Blues vs Red Wings moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Red Wings opened as a –135 favorite and have since been bet up to -140. I think that recency bias is why the market is moving towards Detroit, given its current form.

With that said, there really is not much at all that separates these two teams, and +120 is just too long for St. Louis in this spot. That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and remains at that number at the time of writing.

That’s a big number for the total, given Binnington’s and Lyon’s success in net this year and that both offenses rank in the bottom four of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.