NHL Playoff Previews and Picks: Best Main-Market Wagers This Thursday and Friday Night
Noel Picard, the adorable, yet syntax-challenged St. Louis Blues commentator of the 1970s, used to set radio listeners adrift with mysterious, unfinished remarks such as, “We now have news of a final score. Toronto, 2.”
Too bad Picard wasn’t around to report on Game 1’s final score from the Toronto and Florida series on Tuesday. It might have made the Maple Leafs’ final tally of “2” easier for above-the-border fans to take. The same goes for a plurality of our site’s NHL gamers.
We have news of Tuesday’s final score, and “Florida, 4” puts the kibosh on a betting trend that saw Toronto leading the way in Stanley Cup picks with 4-to-1 championship odds to begin the week. Following a series debut in which Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky stopped all 6 of Austin Matthews’ shots on goal, and 34 of 36 Maple Leaf shots overall, Edmonton, Carolina, and even the Vegas Golden Knights are now threatening to surpass gambling action on the Maple Leafs to win the grail in 2023. Only the Leafs’ promising stat-line from Game 1 is keeping Game 2’s moneylines from tracking toward even.
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs (Game 2, Florida Leads 1-0)
If futures bets were discouraged by Game 1, short-term speculators on Toronto are even more emboldened. The Leafs are (-188) moneyline favorites to bounce back and stalemate the Eastern semifinals at one win each. It wouldn’t be uncommon for another 2022-23 playoff goaltender to return immediately to his best play after allowing soft goals in the previous game. Bobrovsky could attest that NHL netminders of this decade are better than ever at recovering from a bad game under pressure. There’s not much evidence that Toronto’s Ilya Samsonov is the “Curtis Joseph” of his era, a goalie who only performs his best when a blue-collar defense corps circles its wagons and allows lots of easy shots-on-goal to clear the cobwebs. Samsonov’s not only capable of crushing his role on a puck-hogging lineup, the netminder is a big reason why Toronto’s championship odds remain (+500).
There are still signs of respect for the Panthers in Game 2’s sportsbook lines, if you look past Florida’s skeptical (+155) odds to win on Thursday night. FanDuel’s O/U (6.5) goal-total odds are a slender (-132) on the “Over” side of the market, a handicap which wouldn’t be so if only one team were considered a threat to score 5+ times. Florida is merely a couple of postseason games removed from solving Linus Ullmark for 6 tallies.
But wait, if the Samsonov-vs-Bobrovsky angle is what’s behind gamblers taking Toronto to recover and win on Thursday night, then why is everyone anticipating a thousand goals in Game 2? The public can’t have it both ways – Samsonov is either poised for a better performance on Thursday, or he isn’t.
Pick: Under (6.5)
Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars (Game 2, Seattle Leads 1-0)
Seattle’s almost starting to make parts of the NHL community resentful. What was a cute story when the Kraken made the playoffs turned into no-laughing-matter when the Kraken eliminated the defending champion Colorado Avalanche in 2023’s opening round. By the time the newcomers upset Dallas in a Game 1 road triumph Tuesday, many commentators were copping the same attitude as Big D’s fans toward Seattle. “Okay, enough already!”
After all, NHL long-timers have seen this episode before. The St. Louis Blues turned what was supposed to be a “new and competitive” expansion division into a one-act show in the 1960s, followed by the Edmonton Oilers taking over the league as a WHL transplant team in the 1980s. The Florida Panthers plowed through a bracket marked with Original Six teams to reach the Stanley Cup Finals as a 2nd-year franchise in 1995. Vegas is a more-recent example of instant postseason success for an NHL expansion team.
Is there some special, unique advantage to being a new NHL team, if only speculators can figure out what it is? Our best guess as to what lies behind Seattle’s virtually instant success (and Vegas’ success before Seattle’s, and Florida’s before that) is that there’s a unique lack of pressure on an expansion team in its first couple years. NHL expansion clubs are free to take chances with project players and rookie hopefuls in the club’s formative seasons, hoping to hit the jackpot on high-ceiling prospects while gearing up for success over the long term. It’s not a degrading thing for the NHL to have an expansion-draft system which helps new franchises become tough playoff opponents right away.
FanDuel Sportsbook odds for Game 2 reflect a certain skepticism of Seattle that might not go away with another victory. Dallas’ moneyline to win is as optimistic as Tuesday’s pregame line at (-190) odds. Bettors can’t imagine the Stars losing to Phillip Grubauer’s team again right away in the best-of-7, since that outcome would leave the favored Stars 0-2 and facing an historic sweep-against in Seattle. Our blog maintains that Games 1 and 4 of a series comprise the most pivotal 120:00 of hockey, unless of course a Game 7 comes up.
Pick: Seattle Puck Line (+1.5) (-154)
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes (Game 2, Carolina Leads 1-0)
Forget the willful blindness to the Kraken found at sportsbooks (and in “Clash of the Titans”) in midweek. Prior to Friday’s game in Carolina, sportsbook users are behaving as if Game 1 between Carolina and New Jersey didn’t really happen, giving the Devils solid (+100) odds to beat the Hurricanes in Game 2 and level the series at a win apiece.
The Carolina Hurricanes embarrassed the New Jersey Devils in a Game 1 strangely devoid of shots but not scoring chances. Carolina prevailed 5-1 behind 5 different scorers. Akira Schmid, the starting Devils netminder, was hooked in midgame after allowing 3 goals-against on 11 shots.
Analysts remain sold on the Devils thanks to NJ’s resounding series win over rival New York, but Carolina represents a vastly different challenge for New Jersey than the Rangers did in Round 1. Gamblers should “fade” any team with obvious goalie issues in 2023.
