NHL Shot Prop Picks, Predictions for Tuesday: Easy Over for Ehlers
It’s a jam-packed, 11-game schedule on the ice Tuesday, and Winnipeg Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers headlines our top NHL picks in a possession mismatch against the Nashville Predators. Here are our shot-prop predictions based on the best NHL odds.
This three-pack of NHL shot props features a trio of plus-money picks and at least two huge mismatches to take advantage of. Pegging the reeling Vancouver Canucks as a third target-worthy opponent surely isn’t a stretch, either, right?
Here are our top NHL shot-prop picks for Tuesday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Top NHL Shot Prop Picks for Tuesday
- Nikolaj Ehlers Over 3.5 shots (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Taylor Hall Over 2.5 shots (+104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Max Domi Over 2.5 shots (+118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
NHL Shot Prop Predictions
Nikolaj Ehlers Over 3.5 shots (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
The Nashville Predators have surrendered the second-most shots (37.6) and third-most attempts (66.1) per 60 minutes in January, so I’m expecting Nikolaj Ehlers and the Winnipeg Jets to put plenty of pucks on net Tuesday. Winnipeg has driven five-on-five possession with a 54.8 Corsi For percentage over the past 10 games with Ehlers back in the lineup, and these two teams are clearly trending in opposite directions in terms of possession metrics.
Ehlers has cleared this 3.5 total in three consecutive games, and he skated with a pair of playmakers in center Mark Scheifele and winger Blake Wheeler on Sunday. Additionally, when these two teams met in December, Nashville’s No. 1 defenseman Roman Josi played significantly more against Winnipeg center Pierre-Luc Dubois than Scheifele. It’s a boon for Ehlers' shot volume if that’s the case again Tuesday.
I’m confident in this bet, but I wish we were landing longer odds, so I’ve pegged it as a three-star recommendation. For comparison, I would place a two-star grade on the highlighted -105 odds. Securing the +102 odds via FanDuel presents a 1.7% edge and 3% positive expected value over the -105 number, so there isn’t a huge advantage in the odds across books, either.
Taylor Hall Over 2.5 shots (+104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
The Boston Bruins are the largest favorite on Tuesday’s docket, and the Montreal Canadiens have surrendered the most attempts and third-most shots per 60 minutes in January. Making matters worse, the Habs might just have as many NHL regulars out with injuries as in the projected lineup for the matchup against the best team in the league.
I’m eyeing Taylor Hall’s shot total because the seven-time, 20-goal scorer hasn’t found the back of the net in 16 games, and this is the perfect opportunity for him to snap that slump. Overall, his shot volume is way down from his prime years, when he skated in a go-to offensive role. However, he’s recorded three shots in consecutive games, and playing down the lineup should provide him with soft even-strength matchups against the banged up Canadiens on Tuesday.
The potential for Boston to run Montreal out of the rink is real, and it could result in the Bruins playing conservatively while defending a multi-goal lead. Otherwise, I’d consider this a four-star nod. We’re also only grabbing a small 2.2% edge and 4% positive expected value when comparing the best and worst odds available.
Max Domi Over 2.5 shots (+118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Max Domi has cleared this total in six of the past eight games, and he’s pacing the Chicago Blackhawks in both shots and attempts per 60 minutes during the stretch. It’s obviously a limited sample, but Domi’s ice time is also up, and it’s clear he’s more committed to shooting the puck with a spike to 11.7 shots and 18.6 attempts per 60 compared to his respective 6.8 and 12.2 marks through the first 37 games of the year.
While this isn’t a high-end matchup, that’s baked into these plus-money odds. Plus, the Vancouver Canucks have dropped 10 of 13 contests while allowing a middling 30.9 shots per 60 minutes out of the holiday break. I’m also not concerned about this being Rick Tocchet’s first game as head coach of the Canucks.
Because the increased shot volume from Domi is a relatively recent development, and we’re not gaining a tremendous advantage by price shopping, I’ve rated this as a two-star recommendation. Still, landing the +118 odds through FanDuel presents a 2.2% edge and 5% positive expected value over the +108 number via Caesars.
NHL shot prop picks made 1/24/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
