NHL Stanley Cup playoffs odds, predictions: First-round series best bets
We may indeed be headed for a Boston Bruins Stanley Cup coronation. But first we must go through the formality that is the 2022-23 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs.
It all starts Monday, when the puck drops on the first of half of the league’s eight opening-round playoff series.
In all, 15 teams will get the opportunity to knock off the heavily favored Bruins after Boston set NHL single-season records for most wins (65) and most points (135).
Cashing in on that opportunity, of course, requires surviving the first round — never an easy chore, no matter what transpired in the regular season.
So which NHL clubs offer the best opening-round betting value? Here are our top three first-round series wagers.
Odds updated as of 4:45 p.m. ET on April 16.
NHL Stanley Cup playoffs: Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers
Series odds: Oilers -225/Kings +185 (BetMGM)
Prediction: Oilers -2.5 games (+200)
Los Angeles and Edmonton engaged in an epic first-round playoff series last year, with the Oilers overcoming a 3-2 series deficit by winning Game 6 in L.A. and Game 7 at home.
This year, we believe Edmonton will have a far easier go of it against its Pacific Division rivals. And the reason has as much to do with goaltending as it does superstar Connor McDavid and the Oilers’ incredibly prolific offense.
Always a bugaboo for Edmonton, including for much of this season, goaltending actually carried the team down the stretch as it tried (but ultimately failed) to chase down Vegas for the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed.
Remarkably, goalies Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell allowed a combined six goals in the Oilers’ final six games, including posting two shutouts. Edmonton won all six, which was part of a season nine-game winning streak and 14-0-1 run.
The last time Edmonton lost in regulation? A 7-4 setback at Toronto on March 11 that capped a four-game road trip.
The Kings were on the wrong end of two of the Oilers’ most recent low-scoring victories, as they fell 2-0 at home on March 30 and 3-1 in Canada five days later.
In all, Los Angeles dropped five of its final nine games following a 10-0-2 hot streak. The Kings’ offense disappeared down the stretch, scoring more than three goals just twice and averaging 2.44 goals over the final nine contests.
So you take a frigid offense and match it up against (surprisingly) sizzling goaltending — then add in an Oilers offense that scored 24 more goals than any other NHL team — and you get a series mismatch.
That’s why we’re grabbing the 2-to-1 odds that BetMGM is offering that Edmonton eliminates Los Angeles either 4-0 or 4-1.
NHL Stanley Cup playoffs: New York Rangers vs. New Jersey Devils
Series odds: Rangers +100/Devils -120 (BetMGM)
Prediction: Devils -120
It’s been five years since New Jersey last appeared in the Stanley Cup playoffs. And it’s been more than a decade since the Devils last won a postseason series (they reached the 2011-12 Stanley Cup Final, losing to the Los Angeles Kings).
Conversely, the Rangers made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals just last season, falling to the then-two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in six games.
So experience undoubtedly favors the Rangers in this rivalry matchup. But the goaltending advantage New York almost always has with 2021-22 Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin minding the net doesn’t exist in this series.
That’s because Devils netminder Vitek Vanecek was every bit as good as Shesterkin this season — and in some ways better.
Shesterkin had the superior save percentage by a hair (.916 vs. .911) and more victories (37 vs. 33). But Vanecek had the better overall goals-against average (2.45 vs. 2.48), the same number of shutouts (three) and more wins per start (33 in 48) than Shesterkin (37 in 58).
So except for experience — which obviously favors Shesterkin — this one is a wash between the pipes. When it comes to skaters, though, New Jersey has a decided edge.
The Devils averaged 3.52 goals per game, fifth-most in the league. New York (3.33) was 12th. New Jersey also had a superior goal-differential (+67 vs. +57).
Additionally, the head-to-head battle favored New Jersey, which won three of four meetings. All four games were tight, though, with three-one goal contests — including two decided in overtime — following a 5-3 Devils win in the initial matchup.
This figures to be one of the most exciting, competitive and intense clashes of the first round. But our money is on the Devils cashing in on home-ice advantage and winning in seven games.
NHL Stanley Cup playoffs: Winnipeg Jets vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Series odds: Jets +136/Golden Knights -164 (FanDuel)
Prediction: Golden Knights -1.5 games (+122)
The Golden Knights went 5-0-2 over their final seven games to clinch the top seed in the Western Conference with 111 points, barely edging the Edmonton Oilers and defending champion Colorado Avalanche (both had 109 points).
Meanwhile, Winnipeg had to close on a 5-2 run just to earn the eighth and final spot in the West.
Vegas (51-22-9) also finished with five more victories, 16 more points and 11 fewer regulation losses than the Jets (46-33-3). It also had a goal differential (+43) that was nearly double Winnipeg’s (+22).
So why do only two teams — New Jersey (vs. the Rangers) and Dallas (vs. Minnesota) — have shorter first-round series odds than the Golden Knights?
Must be because the Jets dominated the regular season series, right? Nope. Vegas swept three games from Winnipeg, winning twice at home in October (5-2 and 2-1 in overtime) and once north of the border in December (6-5).
And it’s certainly not a talent thing, because the Golden Knights — who were snakebit by injuries arguably more than any other team this season — are loaded.
There are some goaltending question marks that Vegas has to contend with, but only from an experience perspective.
The teams top two netminders — All-Star rookie Logan Thompson and backup Adin Hill — remain out with injuries. However, journeyman veteran Laurent Brossoit was fantastic in 11 games, posting a 2.17 goals-against average. He also went 7-0-1 in eight starts.
Brossoit will be facing a Winnipeg offense that lacks firepower (3.00 goals-per game, 21st in the league).
Admittedly, Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck was tremendous this season (2.49 GAA, .920 save percentage). But he was in net for two of the three losses to Vegas (including the 6-5 home defeat).
So we not only expect the Golden Knights to advance, we project them to do so without a ton of stress. That’s why we recommend playing this plus-money FanDuel prop of Vegas to win the series by at least a two-game margin (so 4-2, 4-1 or 4-0).
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
