Nicky Henderson hoping Shishkin can see off classy Aintree Bowl field
Even in the late absence of Bravemansgame, this race could be said to feature many of the key players in an above-average Gold Cup, plus the horse who threw away a below-average Ryanair. Put it that way and how could the latter ever have been favourite?
Admittedly, that framing would be a reductive view of Shishkin, who is increasingly an enigma when we would all much rather he just got on with being the star he clearly is. A Supreme win when the vibes were off and his position two out was hopeless. A stirring triumph in the most hyped-up clash of the decade, over a horse who has since won two Champion Chases. And that rarest of comebacks when he recaptured his very best in the Ascot Chase two starts ago.
The best version of Shishkin is arguably the most capable horse in this high-class field of five. But it is not for certain.Last season’s A Plus Tard would be superior, but he has been nowhere to be seen in an interrupted campaign this time. He has demonstrable stamina, as does Gold Cup third Conflated and course-and-distance winner Ahoy Senor. Shishkin has never been beyond Ascot’s 2m5f, and that was a clearer hint at his stamina than his belated assent to put it all in at Cheltenham.
At least Shishkin could be argued to have avoided a hard race at the festival. There has clearly been a Gold Cup hangover evident in recent runnings of the Bowl. Luminaries like Kauto Star, Denman (twice), Imperial Commander, Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card have all been turned over in this race after big efforts at Cheltenham. Protektorat is not quite in that league but was a likely bouncer in last year’s Bowl after finishing third in the Gold Cup.
That phenomenon would be the main doubt over Conflated. It applies less strongly to A Plus Tard and Ahoy Senor, who were spared giving their all up the hill. The latter in particular had been on his best behaviour before putting down on Derek Fox and falling six out. Aintree has tended to be his track and he should get the lead again. A personal tissue would not have him as the least likely winner among the big four.
It may be wise not to completely disregard rank outsider Ga Law. He ran in the Ryanair, finishing less than seven lengths behind Shishkin, and from watching the replay of that race there is only one horse you would say was 100 per cent in need of a longer trip.It would be fanciful to imagine Ga Law improving the stone or more needed to match the stars in this field. However, with many having endured a hard race in the Gold Cup, and a certain other now only deciding after a fence or so whether he wants to race at all, that may not be necessary.
As a fan, I want to see the big names competing in an exceptional Bowl – even Shishkin, for all that he and I have fallen out. But as a punter I will be playing small stakes on the two outsiders and hoping for another shock.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose
Major test of Shishkin's mettle
Shishkin will find things very different on just his second visit to Aintree.
The last time he came, in 2021, he started 1-8 favourite for the Grade 1 novice chase over 2m on the Friday and never really looked in danger of defeat, gamely though Funambule Sivola tried to make a race of it.
Two years on, he will be running over more than a mile further and there are a whole host of big names facing him in what could be the most competitive race of the season.
Shishkin showed the benefit of a step up to two miles five furlongs when landing the Ascot Chase by a hugely impressive 16 lengths and looked ripe for an even longer trip with his display in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, where he made a bad mistake at the third-last fence but stayed on well to take second place on the run-in.
He takes on proven top-notch three-milers here and trainer Nicky Henderson said: "This is a very good race, you won't get a better one.
"But Shishkin is in good form and I've been very happy with the way he's come on. He didn't jump very well at Cheltenham but he's certainly schooled very well. I'm very happy with him and I'm looking forward to going three miles. I hope it will be ideal for him."
Ahoy Senor bids for National meeting hat-trick
If it's Aintree in April, it must be Ahoy Senor. That's a system that has worked remarkably well for punters in the last couple of years.
It was here in 2021 where he first announced himself as something out of the ordinary, tackling the Grade 1 Sefton Novices' Hurdle only because the ground was too quick for him to run at Hexham and winning at 66-1.
Twelve months on he returned to double his top-level tally, making all in the Mildmay Novices' Chase.
There is an enforced change to the team as Ahoy Senor bids for a Grand National meeting hat-trick, with Brian Hughes replacing injured jockey Derek Fox.
He also comes here on the back of a fall, having come down six fences from home in last month's Cheltenham Gold Cup.
But he was still in front when he fell and had proved himself more than able to mix it with the top chasers when landing the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January.
"He was jumping the best he ever has in the Gold Cup and was in a lovely rhythm," said trainer Lucinda Russell. "Who knows what would have happened? But he came out of it sound, we've schooled him and he seemed quite happy and confident.
"He's going back to a track we know he loves on ground he'll be fine on. The two caveats are that Derek's not riding him, although we've got a very good substitute in Brian, and it looks a very tough race."
De Bromhead hopeful A Plus Tard can show his best
Could you consider backing a horse who has been pulled up on his last two runs? When that horse is as good as A Plus Tard, the answer for many will be yes.
Remember, this time last year he was unquestionably the best staying chaser around, having just thumped his Gold Cup rivals by upwards of 15 lengths at Cheltenham.
Which is why it was such a shock when he ran so poorly on his return in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November – the 1-2 favourite was beaten from the fourth-last fence and pulled up before the next.
He was clearly not right that day and was given plenty of time to recover his form by Henry de Bromhead, who did not run him again until last month's Gold Cup.
A Plus Tard looked a lot more like his old self in the strong way he travelled at Cheltenham and seemed still to be full of running six out when he was badly hampered as Ahoy Senor fell and brought down Sounds Russian in front of him. Although Rachael Blackmore carried on, his chance had gone and he was pulled up before three out.
De Bromhead said: "Rachael said she was just about to go following Paul Townend on Galopin Des Champs when the two horses fell in front of her and that was that. She said she was happy at the time.
"He's done very well since Cheltenham and seems to be in good form, so hopefully he'll be able to show what he's made of this time. It's a very hot race."
What they say
Gordon Elliott, trainer of Conflated
He went close in the race last year and this was the logical place to come after the Gold Cup. He ran a cracker at Cheltenham and I was delighted with him. He's developed into a very consistent horse over the last few seasons and I think the track definitely suits. It looks a real hot race but he's in there with every chance. Everything has gone well with him over the last few weeks.
Jamie Snowden, trainer of Ga Law
He probably ran a career-best in the Ryanair Chase over a trip that was too short for him. It's not an easy race but if he could finish in the first four he would qualify for the Grand National next year.
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