NL East 2023 preview: Mets, Phillies, Braves fight for first
The Post’s Jon Heyman previews the NL East.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
O/U wins: 88.5
Key player: Bryce Harper. The Phillies are only saying that the two time MVP, who had Tommy John surgery in November, will be back sometime in the first half. Knowing him, however, it could be a lot sooner than the All-Star break, maybe even sometime in late May. Harper brought life and an edge to the Phillies last year, when they made a surprise run to the World Series, and it’s easy to imagine him doing that again. Philadelphia looked hard at Manny Machado that fateful winter four years ago, but Harper turned out to be exactly the right guy.
Player who’ll need to step up: Nick Castellanos. The outfielder was something of a disappointment after he signed a $100 million deal a winter ago. Philly isn’t an easy transition for everyone, but he should be a well-above-average hitter who lengthens what is expected to be — at least on paper — one of the better lineups in the league, even after Rhys Hoskins’ season-ending injury. Occasional adventures in the outfield are no big deal if he’s hitting as he should.
Name you’ll get to know: Andrew Painter. The phenom was shut down in spring with a UCL issue, but the hope is that rest will do the trick and he won’t need surgery. The Phillies will wait a bit, but there’s no sense losing two years as surgery remains a possibility. He has “No. 1-type stuff,” manager Rob Thomson said of the righty, who throws 99 mph at age 19.
Biggest question mark: Rotation depth. Even assuming Ranger Suarez (forearm) is OK, they still need another starter. If Painter can join the rotation, that would be a huge boon. Just as likely, they’ll find a fifth starter elsewhere. Bailey Falter and reliever Matt Strahm are among early candidates.
How it’ll go down: The Phillies are getting overlooked, which is hard to believe considering they were in the World Series last year and were among the most active teams in the free-agent market, signing Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker to add to a very talented roster. The division is truly a three-headed monster.
2. New York Mets
O/U wins: 92.5
Key player: Pete Alonso. The Mets have a nice, balanced lineup, but only one true slugger, and Alonso will need to repeat his performance of a year ago, when he led the majors with 131 RBI (tied with Aaron Judge). He didn’t look quite like himself in early at-bats at the World Baseball Classic, but he has been a pretty consistent force for the Mets since coming up in 2019.
Player who’ll need to step up: David Robertson. The Mets most likely will need to stay in-house to replace the injured Edwin Diaz, the game’s best closer, and Robertson should be the man. He certainly has the experience (157 career saves) and the moxie, but there’s some question as to how much he has lost from his best years. He should be OK, but let’s face it, unless the Mets can trade for Emmanuel Clase or Josh Hader (which will not happen), they will lose something here.
Name you’ll get to know: Brett Baty. He had a big spring, and he should play a vital role this year. The defense remains a bit of a question, but he looks ready at the plate right now. The way he performed during spring training, it’s easy to see why he’s one of the sport’s top 20 prospects.
Biggest question mark: Pitching health. The Diaz loss is huge, of course. Beyond that, the Mets look to be in pretty good shape for now, but Kodai Senga’s mid-spring finger issue prevented him from throwing his patented ghost fork, and if he has a problem because MLB’s baseball is bigger that the ones he used in Japan, that could be an issue. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have shown remarkable health throughout their careers, but they aren’t as young as they used to be (at least Verlander seems to be a better bet to stay healthy than Jacob deGrom was, even if he’s five years older). Tylor Megill missed most of last year after starting brilliantly and could be a big plus, health permitting,
How it’ll go down: It should be a dogfight to the finish between three exceptional teams. The Mets are the most expensive team in baseball history at $344 million (not counting Diaz), and they should be rewarded for owner Steve Cohen’s generosity.
3. Atlanta Braves
O/U wins: 95.5
Key player: Austin Riley. The young superstar signed a $218 million deal last year, but don’t think for a second that will slow him down. This is a great time for third basemen, and he is one of the very best. Look out for a monster year.
Player who’ll need to step up: A shortstop. Veteran Orlando Arcia gets the call after winning the job this spring. Braves fans are surely disappointed to see Vaughn Grissom, a sensation last year, sent back to the minors after he has showed so much promise. The Braves need to replace Dansby Swanson, and those are big shoes to fill. Arcia will provide steady defense, but he never has hit that much, except in playoff situations.
Name you’ll get to know: Sean Murphy. The Braves not only made another nice trade with the Athletics, they quickly figured out how to lock up the catcher as well. Murphy is well known to scouts and insiders and is a terrific player, but as a longtime member of the A’s he obviously has been underappreciated and mostly unseen.
Biggest question mark: Eddie Rosario. Last year was wasted since Rosario was having trouble seeing. The outfielder is an above-average hitter with a penchant for coming through in the clutch. He looked great for Puerto Rico in the WBC, so he seems to back in form.
How it’ll go down: The Braves have won this division five years in a row and they may well win it again. They seem to get optimal performances every year, and it’s hard to bet against them. Just thinking here someone else finally gets past them.
4. Miami Marlins
O/U wins: 76.5
Key player: Jazz Chisholm Jr. The charismatic star had detractors in the clubhouse last year, but some of them are gone, and it’s his chance to make the Marlins his team. Of course, he needs to stay healthy, and he needs to make center field his own. The former infielder is in center out of necessity, not by choice, but he seemed to be catching on after a slow start in spring.
Player who’ll need to step up: Joey Wendle. The surprise shortstop choice is a terrific utility player and pretty fair third baseman. But is he a starting shortstop? We will find out. Jose Iglesias was signed as late insurance. If neither works out, perhaps they could move Jean Segura, who began as a shortstop, back over from third base.
Name you’ll get to know: Jesus Luzardo. The lefty came in a great trade for star rental Starling Marte, and he looks ready to star for his hometown team. He fits into the middle of an outstanding rotation, the Marlins’ obvious strength, but look for him to shine, enhancing their one area of advantage.
Biggest question mark: Defense. Chisholm, Wendle and Segura are possibly out of position. At the very least, they are at new positions. In order to beef up the offense, which was necessary, they are doing a little experimenting on defense. Garrett Cooper is more of a hitter than a defender, as well, and starting catcher Jacob Stallings slipped badly on defense last year, falling from near-elite to close the bottom of the pack.
How it’ll go down: The starting pitching is outstanding. But the rest of the team has enough issues that it will be a surprise if they contend. And during spring training, they were giving up nearly twice as many runs as they scored, raising more concerns. Avisail Garcia looked great this spring, and the acquisitions of Segura and Luis Arraez should lift them offensively. But will the defense let it as many extra runs as the upgraded offense provides?
5. Washington Nationals
O/U wins: 59.5
Key player: Keibert Ruiz. It’s not just that Ruiz received a $50 million extension, it’s that the catcher was the key guy in the deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers in July 2021. Ruiz is defensively strong, and he will be counted on to help guide a pitching staff that’s a mix of young guys, journeymen and reclamation projects. Not easy.
Player who’ll need to step up: Dominic Smith. He goes from the minors with the Mets to a full-time job as the Nationals’ first baseman, but he needs to make good on this chance after two rough years following his big performance in the shortened 2020 season. He has always said he believes in himself. Now is the time to show 2020 was no fluke.
Name you’ll get to know: C.J. Abrams. The shortstop showed what a defensive star he was after coming over in the Juan Soto blockbuster trade, and he has the potential to be one of the best defenders in the game. He may wind up being better than just a throw-in for a superstar, but will need to hit better than he has so far.
Biggest question mark: Starting rotation. The Nationals suffered a blow when top prospect Cade Cavalli went down, requiring Tommy John surgery. Mackenzie Gore, also part of the Soto deal, showed big-time potential early last year for the Padres, so Washington has high hopes for the lefty, who taken fourth overall in the draft a few years back, even after a shaky spring. Josiah Gray, Trevor Williams, Patrick Corbin and Chad Kuhl round a quintet that could go either way. Williams was good in a spot starting role for the Mets last year and Corbin is looking to regain his lost form.
How it’ll go down: This should be a long year for the Nationals. Their former superstars populate other teams (Scherzer, Mets; Turner and Bryce Harper, Phillies; Soto, Padres; Anthony Rendon, Angels) and Stephen Strasburg is having trouble returning after thoracic outlet surgery. What’s left of the top-heavy team that won the 2019 World Series looks like a certain last-place squad.
