NLCS Game 6: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies continue their best-of-7 NL Championship Series Monday. First pitch in Game 6 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's  lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 3-2

Arizona took 2 of 3 at home Thursday through Saturday, but the Diamondbacks are now back in Philadelphia where they dropped Games 1 and 2, so they are on the brink of elimination. The series was leveled in a pair of 1-run wins by the Diamondbacks in Games 3 and 4, but the Phils countered with 3 HRs in a wire-to-wire 6-1 triumph Saturday.

The Phillies have hit 23 HRs this postseason. Philadelphia has been playing well at home in front of a frenzied fan base not accustomed to deep runs in October. The Phillies are 12-1 at home since Sept. 21.

Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters

RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Kelly went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA across 30 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.19 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 177 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 6 K in 10-0 loss in Game 2 of this series
• 2023 regular-season road stats: 7-4, 4.07 ERA in 84 IP across 15 starts
• Career starts vs. Phillies: 1-2, 3.55 ERA in 25 1/3 IP across 4 starts (2019-23)
• Postseason: 3.00 ERA in 12 IP (2023)

Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K in 10-0 win in Game 2 of this series
• 2023 regular-season home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 2-2, 6.11 ERA in 28 IP (2017-23)
• Postseason: 3.25 ERA in 44 1/3 IP (2022-23)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Sunday at 10:21 p.m. ET.

Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4

As I have noted a couple of times in this series, Arizona isn't too far removed from going 27-28 over its final 55 games of the regular season. And save for 2 impressive wins at Dodger Stadium -- against a perhaps-rusty Los Angeles nine, the D-backs haven't exactly been all that dangerous on the road. Since Sept. 10, Arizona is 8-9 away from the desert.

As noted when these same hurlers squared off in Game 2, there is some fade to Merrill's surface line. The Arizona righty benefited from a .279 batting average on balls in play during the regular season (.246 BABIP in inning leadoff situations, .267 BABIP with runners in scoring position). That all points to an artificially low ERA on the surface. And he was torched by walks and home runs by this same club in this same park on Oct. 17.

Over his last 5 starts (regular and postseason combined), Nola has registered a 1.44 ERA and 35 K against just 2 BB in 30 1/3 IP. He's more tested in playoff pressure.

Is Nola and the Philly side worth the tag in this one? Its 20 cents higher than the -165 in Game 2. Yes, this is still a value side.

BACK THE PHILLIES (-185).

The average MLB club played 44 one-run games during the season. The Phillies played 20.5% more (53). In a game -- and series -- where there is some fade to the bullpens, PASS on the run line.

The Over is 6-1-2 in the last 11 meetings. And that's the slight lean here. But with rested back ends of the bullpens and some cool weather in the forecast, laying off looks to be the way to go.