NLDS Game 3: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies head to the City of Brotherly Love to untangle their NL Division Series. First pitch in Wednesday's Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Braves vs. Philliesodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Tied 1-1
Atlanta heads to Philly after a brilliant comeback -- complete with a wild, game-ending double-play -- in Monday's Game 2. Home runs by C Travis d'Arnaud and 3B Austin Riley helped the Braves battle back from a 4-0 deficit in an eventual 5-4 triumph.
Monday's setback snapped a 4-game Philadelphia winning streak. Dating back to the regular season, the Phillies have lost 11 games since Sept. 8 and 7 of those have been by 1-run margins.
Braves at Phillies projected starters
RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Elder went 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA across 31 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 174 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 2 K in 7-6 win vs. Chicago Cubs Sept. 26
- 2023 regular-season road stats: 5-3, 4.05 ERA in 80 IP across 14 starts
- Career starts vs. Phillies: 0-0, 3.38 ERA in 10 2/3 IP (2 starts in 2023)
- Making his 1st postseason start
Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-1 win vs. Miami Marlins Wednesday (NLWCS Game 2)
- 2023 regular-season home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 2-0, 2.10 ERA in 30 IP
- Postseason: 3-2, 3.86 ERA in 32 2/3 IP (2022-23)
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Braves at Phillies odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:53 p.m. ET.
Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Braves 4
The Phillies are a sliver of a lean in a vacuum, but the starting pitching is the big tilt for this match-up in Game 3. Elder is making his playoff debut, and his surface numbers in the regular season were suspect due to a .275 batting average on balls in play and a .255 BABIP with runners in scoring position.
The Braves hurler is also making this start on extended rest. During the regular season, he clocked a 3.39 ERA on 4-day rest. a 3.42 ERA on 5-day rest and a 5.83 ERA when pitching on 6-plus days' rest.
Nola was a bit unlucky in the regular season with 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard. A cooled-off Philadelphia evening would not hurt his prospects for this one, but expect better control of the long ball for a pitcher who has been less frequently barreled up over the last month or so. Nola was also undone by a .340 BABIP with runners in scoring position in the regular season.
Nola was solid last week against Miami. He gives the Phils value at -130 or better.
Grab the FanDuel Sportsbook on this one: TAKE THE PHILLIES (-120).
The Phillies play a lot of 1-run games. AVOID the cushion proposition here.
No leverage on either side here: PASS.
