Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Pick: Best Bet for NLDS Game 3 (Oct. 11)

The Atlanta Braves play the Philadelphia Phillies today in Game 3 of the NLDS, and we have Braves vs. Phillies odds, predictions and picks for this pivotal playoff game.

The Braves overcame a monster starting pitching disadvantage in Game 2 with a late-game rally capped off by an Austin Riley two-run homer and a legendary 8-5-3 game-ending double-play.

But I don’t expect lightning to strike twice.

The Phillies have another monster starting pitching advantage here, and I expect the Fightin’ Phils to take full advantage with a victory, moving within one game of the NLCS.

And I’m willing to put my hard-earned money behind that take.

Read on for our Braves vs. Phillies prediction, featuring our best bet for today’s NLDS game.

Moneyline: Braves (+106) vs. Phillies (-124)

Spread: Braves +1.5 (-192) vs. Phillies -1.5 (+158)

Total: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)

• Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here

Let’s face it.

Atlanta starting pitcher Bryce Elder isn’t good.

The Braves righty finished the first half of 2023 with a sub-3.00 ERA, but everybody knew it was smoke and mirrors (save for Braves fans). His numbers were buoyed by a low BABIP (.273) and a high strand rate (81.5%), two numbers that should regress to league averages (.300 and 72%, respectively) in the long run.

Otherwise, Elder had mediocre stuff, questionable command and a brutal batted-ball profile.

Elder’s expected ERA was closer to 4.50 than 3.00, and all the negative regression he was owed came rushing back in the second half. He boasted an ERA north of 5.00 across 68 second-half innings. He enters the postseason with 20 earned runs over his final 30 regular-season innings.

Elder pitched well against Philadelphia in the first regular-season meeting this season but was shelled in round two, allowing four earned runs on three hits and five walks over three innings.

I expect more of the same in this pivotal Game 3.

The walks should be emphasized here. As mentioned, Elder can be wild, and free passes can sink him. He issued 21 over his final 43 regular-season innings, accounting for 11.4% of batters faced.

The Phillies are a patient lineup that will take their walks and capitalize.

Plus, Elder is also a sinkerballer, throwing the two-seam about 40% of the time.

The Phillies were a top-five MLB offense against sinkers this year by OPS (.824) and expected wOBA (.359).

This is a bad matchup for Elder.

Also, this Phillies lineup has been red-hot in general.

Eight of the regular nine-man lineup finished with an OPS+ above 105, with their biggest superstars (Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos) dominating down the stretch.

During this postseason run, the Phillies have 18 runs in four games, including 10 doubles and four homers. Four Phils have a playoff wRC+ above 150 (J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott, Turner, Harper).

This Phillies lineup is one of the best and deepest in the Majors.

They should smash Elder in a good matchup.

Of course, the Braves’ lineup was historically good in 2023. But that lineup has only nine hits across their first two postseason games (.150 average).

And the Phillies should have an easier time exploiting Elder than the Braves will have exploiting Philadelphia starting pitcher Aaron Nola.

Nola had an up-and-down season but was unlucky (4.46 ERA, 3.77 expected ERA), primarily thanks to one of MLB’s worst defenses. The Phillies’ pitching staff was constantly hamstrung by a unit that couldn’t make consistent fielding plays.

However, the Phillies’ fielding unit turned a corner once Harper was healthy. Harper playing at first base meant the Phillies could mercifully pull Kyle Schwarber out of left field, where he was the worst defensive outfielder in MLB, instead allowing him to DH. With Brandon Marsh or Cristian Pache in left field, the Phillies are a solid all-around defense, which helps Nola.

Specifically, because Nola is elite at inducing weak contact and forcing ground balls. At his best, Nola combined excellent stuff with an uncanny ability to avoid hard contact, allowing him to pitch deep into games as long as his defense holds up.

He looked like vintage Nola against the Marlins in the Wildcard round, throwing seven innings of shutout ball with 10 ground-ball outs. He allowed only one barrel across three hits, and the Phillies converted all those weakly hit balls into outs.

With Philly’s defense intact, we can upgrade Nola in our power ratings.

Of course, Atlanta features a much more potent, hard-hitting offense than Miami. However, Nola’s been solid against the Braves, with a 3.50 ERA in his past eight starts against them.

Given Nola’s form in his most recent outing, Atlanta’s relative offensive struggles compared to Philly, and Elder’s overall struggles, I believe the Phillies have a significant edge in the first half of Game 3.

And the Phillies have an even more significant advantage in the latter frames.

Philadelphia’s bullpen is among MLB’s best, with several elite high-leverage relievers (Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvarado, Greg Soto, Seranthony Dominguez, Orion Kerkering).

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s bullpen is a mediocre unit that pitched poorly in the regular season’s final weeks (5.06 FIP in September).

Add in home-field advantage and the always raucous Citizens Bank crowd, and I fully expect the Phillies to win here and take a commanding 2-1 series lead.

So, I’m betting the game that way. I recommend taking the Phils as short home favorites.

Phillies ML (-124) | Play to ML (-130)