Notre Dame Fighting Irish Preview, Predictions & Win Total Pick

Marcus Freeman‘s first season in South Bend didn’t exactly go as planned. A loss to the Marshall Thundering Herd at home in Week 2 gave him the notorious honor of becoming the school’s first head coach to lose his first three games on the job (dating back to and including the 2021 Fiesta Bowl against the Oklahoma State Cowboys). That said, his Notre Dame Fighting Irish still finished with nine wins and notched a blowout 35-14 win over the Clemson Tigers. What’s in store for Year 2 under Freeman?

2022 Record: 9-4

Head Coach:Marcus Freeman: Overall: 9-5

Offensive Coordinator: Gerad Parker (1st Year; 2nd w/ ND)

Defensive Coordinator: Al Golden (2nd Year)

National Championship Odds: +3000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +750

Win 10+ Games: +195 | Undefeated Regular Season: +2000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 -110 | UNDER 8.5 -110

Notre Dame Predictions & Picks:Notre Dame Futures | Notre Dame Win Total

An improved passing attack! Notre Dame struggled at the quarterback position in 2022 after starter Tyler Buchner was lost to injury in just the second game of the season. They upgraded in the offseason with the huge addition of Sam Hartman via the transfer portal from Wake Forest, where all he did was throw for 12,967 yards and 110 touchdowns. He’ll play behind an elite offensive line, and this offense has a chance to take a giant step forward if he can work in tandem with a wide receiving group that was much-maligned a year ago. Wideout Jayden Thomas broke out as a redshirt freshman a year ago. Tobias Merriweather has drawn comparisons to Randy Moss from his coaching staff, and Chris Tyree has moved over from running back to provide support. Freshmen Jaden Greathouse and Rico Flores look ready to contribute in their first seasons on campus. The team was solid elsewhere and has attempted to remedy its biggest flaw from a year ago.

At this point, the onus is on both of Freeman’s coordinator hires to pay off. Many considered Gerad Parker a questionable offensive coordinator hire, but Freeman was put in a tough spot after Tommy Rees left for Tuscaloosa. Parker has just two years of coordinating experience at this level, and that was under Neal Brown, who has a reputation for his reluctance to hand over play-calling duties. After missing out on bigger names this offseason, they now enter 2023 with an inexperienced play-caller, which is unusual for a program of this caliber. Defensively, Al Golden‘s first season in South Bend led to a squad that ranked 130th (second from last) in red zone defense. This staff has a lot to prove, as Freeman is not yet established after losing to Marshall and Stanford a year ago.

The passing attack needs to take a step forward after ranking 63rd in EPA per Pass a year ago en route to an offense that was entirely “dink and dunk,” finishing 120th in Explosiveness. While Tobias Merriweather is likely considered the top breakout candidate by many folks, I believe Jayden Thomas is further along in his development and is ready to emerge as Hartman’s go-to receiver. He finished with 361 receiving yards and three touchdowns a year ago and will almost certainly exceed those numbers for a team badly in need of production in the passing game. He had five catches for 66 yards in the bowl game against South Carolina and finished that with a nice day in the spring game. 

The Irish need new players to emerge up front that will generate HAVOC and make plays in the backfield. Isaiah Foskey was drafted in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft by the New Orleans Saints after breaking Notre Dame’s career sack record with 26.5. across his five seasons in South Bend. That’s where Jordan Botelho enters the picture as the heir-apparent at the Viper position. After notching 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in limited playing time a year ago, he has a lot of promise to fulfill for a team in need of disruptors up front. 

The most notable part of Notre Dame’s 2023 schedule features a three-headed monster in the Ohio State Buckeyes, USC Trojans, and Clemson Tigers. All three of those powerhouses are ranked inside the AP Poll’s top 10 during the preseason and are favored to win ten regular season games. While that is not ideal, two contests come at home (Ohio State, USC). The rest of the schedule is manageable, as the road games (NC State, Duke, Louisville, Stanford) are all winnable, and they should be favored in all of the home games.

The Irish won eight regular season games a year ago, even with the starting quarterback getting injured in Week 2 and the team suffering humiliating defeats to Marshall and Stanford. They turned things around by winning five of their last six games, including the manhandling of Clemson. The offensive line will be elite this year behind tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher, giving this unit a pretty high floor as long as Hartman is healthy. The defense has a star in cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who intercepted six passes a year ago as a true freshman, and Cam Hart is experienced next to him. The Irish should be favored in all nine games, not occurring against the three-headed monster, so if they can notch one of those tough wins, then the Over looks like the side. 

OVER 8.5 (-110 @ FanDuel Best Price)

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