Notre Dame vs. Oregon State Prediction, Preview, and Odds
College bowl season is in full swing and that brings us a clash of mid-major programs when a program from the Pac-12 takes on one of the nation’s lone remaining independents. The #19 Oregon State Beavers do battle with the #16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Friday afternoon. Oregon State finished the regular season 8-4 after getting drubbed 31-7 on the road by #6 Oregon in their finale November 24, failing to cover the line as a 13-point underdog. Notre Dame closed the regular season with a 9-3 mark, routing Stanford 56-23 on the road in their finale November 25 and covering the line as a 26-point favorite. In the all-time series between the schools, the Beavers have taken both meetings, including a 38-21 in the Insight.com Bowl on December 28, 2004 in Phoenix the last time the teams squared off.
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Oregon State Beavers Looking to Finish Season on Positive Note
Oregon State dropped their final two games of the regular season as they were beaten by Washington and then Oregon. The Beavers enter this game 8-4 overall and finished tied for fourth in the Pac-12 with a 5-4 conference mark on the season. Against Oregon, Oregon State never led in the game, trailing 7-0 after the opening quarter, 21-7 at the half and 24-7 after three quarters. The Beavers’ chances slipped away as they gave up a touchdown drive that covered 78 yards in 40 seconds right before the half, turning a seven-point deficit into 14. Oregon State was drubbed 480-273 in total offense, gave up 28 first downs while picking up 17, lost the time of possession by a 34:03 to 25:57 margin and committed the game’s lone turnover.
On the season, the Beavers are 52 in the nation in passing offense with 246.1 yards per game through the air. Oregon State is 35 in rushing offense as they average 180.8 yards per contest this season. The Beavers are 26 of the 133 FBS teams to take the field this season in scoring offense as they put up 33.8 points per contest. Oregon State is 35 in scoring defense as they allow an average of 21.5 points per game this season. DJ Uiagalelei is 180 of 315 passing for 2,638 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions while ranking third on the team with 219 rushing yards plus six scores. Aidan Chiles (24 of 35, 309 yards, four TD, 79 rush yards, three TD) and Ben Gulbranson (one of one, six yards) also saw action. Damien Martinez is the lead back in the ground game with 194 carries for 1,185 yards and nine scores this season. Deshaun Fenwick (90 carries, 500 yards, five TD) provides a solid secondary option on the ground. In the passing attack, Silas Bolden reeled in a team-high 51 balls for 718 yards and five scores. Anthony Gould (44 receptions, 718 yards, two TD), tight end Jack Velling (29 grabs, 438 yards, eight TD) and Jesiah Irish (15 catches, 246 yards, TD) are the only other plays with at least 150 receiving yards this season. Atticus Sappington is a reliable kicker, hitting 49 of 50 extra point attempts and 13 of 14 on field goal attempts with a long of 48 on the year.
Oregon State is a team in flux heading into the bowl game. Jonathan Smith took the head coaching job at Michigan State and Kefense Hynson will coach the team here. Trent Bray will take over in 2024. Uiagalelei and Chiles are both in the portal so Gulbranson is #1 on the depth chart at QB. Martinez is doubtful here after being arrested on the suspicion of DUI last month. Velling is in the portal while Gould opted out, taking away two of the team’s top three pass catchers. In addition, their starting right tackle has opted out while their starting left tackle and guard were both injured and missed the Oregon game. Leading tackler Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, safety Akili Arnold, cornerback Jermod McCoy and Sappington are all also in the portal.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Hoping to Earn Double Digit Wins
Notre Dame won their final two games of the regular season as they pulverized Stanford on the road in their finale. The Fighting Irish enter the bowl game 9-3 on the season and hope that they can earn double digit victories for coach Marcus Freeman. Against Stanford, Notre Dame sputtered early, allowing the Cardinal to move the ball with relative ease while trailing 13-7. The Fighting Irish erupted from there, scoring 49 of the next 52 points to take a 56-16 lead before Stanford got a garbage time score. Notre Dame rolled up a 521-359 edge in total offense, picked up 26 first downs while allowing 19 and scored on a blocked field goal return. The Fighting Irish overcame turning the ball over four times while committing two and losing the time of possession by a 33:02 to 26:58 margin in the contest.
This season, the Fighting Irish stands 50 in the nation in passing offense as they average 247.8 yards per game through the air. Notre Dame stands 32 in rushing offense with 181.5 yards per game on the ground this year. On the season, Notre Dame is 8 among the 133 teams that have taken the field in the FBS in scoring offense as they average 39.1 points per game. The team stands 8 in the FBS in scoring defense as they allow only 16.6 points per contest. Sam Hartman completed 191 of 301 passes for 2,689 yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions while adding 123 yards plus three scores on the ground. Steve Angeli (19 of 25, 272 yards, four TD, INT) and Kenny Minchey (two of two, 12 yards) have seen limited action. Audric Estime is the lead back on the ground with 210 carries for 1,341 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jeremyiah Love (56 carries, 346 yards, TD), Jadarian Price (34 carries, 166 yards, two TD) and Gi’Bran Payne (39 carries, 144 yards, two TD) have seen action in the run game as well. Tight end Mitchell Evans leads the team with 29 catches for 422 yards and a score this season. Chris Tyree (26 receptions, 484 yards, three TD), Rico Flores Jr. (27 grabs, 392 yards, TD), Tobias Merriweather (14 catches, 284 yards, two TD), Jaden Greathouse (16 receptions, 252 yards, five TD), Jayden Thomas (17 grabs, 251 yards, TD) and Jordan Faison (14 catches, 207 yards, three TD) are each over 200 receiving yards this season. Spencer Shrader hit 56 of 57 extra point attempts and 14 of 20 field goal attempts with a long of 54. Marcello Diomede hit his lone extra point attempt while Zak Yoakam hit two of two extra point attempts: neither man attempted a field goal.
Notre Dame is full of holes themselves heading into the bowl game. Gerad Parker was the offensive coordinator but he took the head coaching job at Troy. Receivers Flores, Tyree and Merriweather and starting center Zeke Correll are all in the portal. Hartman, Estime, starting tackles Blake Fisher and Joe Alt along with starting corners Cam Hart and Thomas Harper have all opted out of the game. Evans was lost for the season earlier in the year, as was right guard Rocco Spindler.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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We’re looking at a battle of attrition when you get right down to it as both teams have been decimated by the transfer portal and opt-outs. Neither team has their starting quarterback or likely their #1 running back given Martinez’s status for this game. That’s going to lead to a variety of question marks offensively for both teams. Oregon State has Gulbranson, who on the plus side started the last eight games in 2022 but on the minus side threw all of one pass this season. Notre Dame will have Xavier Watts in the secondary after winning the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and Howard Cross will be a factor in the defensive line. The Fighting Irish are missing pieces but their defense should be enough to help them come up with a win in this contest.
Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -6
Full-Game Total Pick
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Oregon State comes into the bowl game having split their 12 games in relation to the total this season. In games that didn’t take place in Corvallis, the Beavers saw the total go 3-3 as they started with three straight overs before staying under the number in their last three road tilts. Notre Dame went over the number in eight of their 12 games in the regular season. The Fighting Irish split their six games away from South Bend in relation to the total as well and went over the number in each of their last five games to close the regular season. With that said, both teams are so decimated offensively that not even the missing pieces defensively are enough to pump up the scoring. Take the under in this contest.
Prediction: Under 41.5
Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO. If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career. Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.
