Notre Dame's Opponents: USC offense, QB Caleb Williams may need to carry the Trojans defense once again

In a different world, Lincoln Riley took the head coaching job at LSU in December of 2021 and Brian Kelly remains at Notre Dame. Or Kelly may have still left South Bend … to be the head coach at USC.

But that is not this world, and Riley is heading into his second season with the No. 6 Trojans. With the defending Heisman Trophy winner leading the way, USC has every expectation of improving in Riley’s second year, going from a loss in the Pac-12 championship game and then in the Cotton Bowl to perhaps a College Football Playoff berth before joining the Big Ten.

If that sentence came across as rambling, that was intentional. Look how many proper nouns fit into discussing the 2023 and 2024 seasons for USC. Heisman Trophy winner. Pac-12 championship game. Cotton Bowl. College Football Playoff berth. Big Ten.

Riley has a lot afoot, but none of it will become the reality he seeks in 2023 if the Trojans defense does not drastically improve.

OFFENSIVE SUMMARY
Offensively, little needs to be wondered around USC even as it brought in another bounty of transfers. With a quarterback like Caleb Williams leading the way, the Trojans offensive floor will be higher than most teams’ ceilings.

If there is any worry, it will focus on offensive line cohesion. USC needs to replace three starters. As the program tends to do under Riley, it turned to the transfer portal to fill those holes. Fixing an offensive line through the transfer portal can be a difficult approach with more misses than hits, but when it is a program with a clear national championship hope and a proven penchant for importing transfers, those odds are better.

The Trojans found Washington State offensive tackle Jarrett Kingston, Florida tackle Michael Tarquin and Wyoming guard Emmanuel Pregnon. There may not yet be trusted depth along the line, but the starters are considered the No. 5 offensive line in the country by Pro Football Focus. And as will be discussed in a bit here, they will have time to gel, plenty of time to gel.

The receivers will also enjoy that time to gel, most notably bringing in Arizona transfer Dorian Singer.

Will it all work as well as last season’s offense that averaged 41.4 points per game? It very well might, but if Williams slips at all from his stellar play — 66.6 percent completion rate, 9.1 yards per attempt, 42 touchdowns compared to five interceptions, along with 10 rushing touchdowns and 669 yards before sacks — then USC’s offense will take a step back. He is that transcendent of a talent, that singular, and very much the piece tying all this together.

DEFENSIVE SUMMARY
And the Trojans need Williams to tie it all together because defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has yet to figure out his side of the ball. Even while forcing an absurd 29 turnovers last year — a thousand more words may be needed to convey how absurd it was; USC was +14 in turnovers in its first four games and +9 in four one-possession victories but net-zero in its three losses — the Trojans ranked No. 93 in the country in scoring defense, giving up 29.2 points per game.

Scoring defense can be a fraught statistic, but USC’s offense did not demand helter-skelter pacing. Ranking No. 93 cannot be blamed on the other side of the ball. It was simply a bad defense that deserved to be ranked behind Kent State’s and Georgia Tech’s and UNLV’s and Northwestern’s and that list goes on for a long while.

The Trojans then lost star defensive end Tuli Tuipulotu to the NFL draft, needing to somehow replace his 13.5 sacks and 22 total tackles for loss. Enter more transfers, including Texas A&M end Anthony Lucas, Purdue end Jack Sullivan, Georgia State end Jamil Muhammad, Arizona tackle Kyon Barrs and Oklahoma State linebacker Mason Cobb.

Nonetheless, faith should not be put in USC’s defense until it has earned it.

2023 OUTLOOK
Following last season’s relative success, Riley insisted he never felt settled in, never felt comfortable, saying the year felt like “a race you can’t ever get ahead in.” He pointed to program-wide deficiencies, things he did not fully grasp were issues until the season was well underway.

If that was more than a talking point, instead an actual worry, then the Trojans could be poised to charge to the Playoff. However, if the real issue was their defense, this could be another entertaining but ultimately unfulfilling season.

To pull from the Athlon preview magazine and its section attributed to an opposing Pac-12 assistant coach, “You can run on their front seven; you can beat them up. They’re a step behind Utah and maybe Washington as far as a complete team. Offensively, though? They might be the best team in the country.”

Championship football may belong to offenses nowadays, but some semblance of defensive success is still needed. Forcing 29 turnovers aside — and finishing the year +22 in turnover margin — USC did not have a semblance of defensive success in 2022.

Williams, receiver Mario Williams (no relation) and South Carolina transfer running back MarShawn Lloyd cannot play both sides of the ball. They will have plenty of work to do to live up to the offensive hype, the kind that leads Phil Steele to predict 41.0 points per game for another year.

The schedule sets up for USC to ease into the year, but it will then face four preseason top-15 teams in the second half of the season beginning with the Oct. 14 trip to No. 13 Notre Dame. Last year’s seven-win improvement obviously cannot be matched, but winning three of those ranked matchups would set up the Trojans for another Pac-12 championship game appearance, and a win there could lead to the wanted Playoff berth.

See the two minutes beginning at 22:40 in the below video for a quick assessment of that Oct. 14 tilt at Notre Dame.