Nuggets vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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27 November 2023

Nuggets vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Denver Nuggets may be the underdogs tonight, but they've had plenty of recent success against the Los Angeles Clippers. With Kawhi Leonard missing his shooting stroke, our NBA picks are expecting a bad night from "The Klaw".

The Los Angeles Clippers got the better of Luka Doncic on Saturday, and in the process finally began to look like a team that could make noise in the Western Conference playoffs. They have a chance to excise another boogeyman on Monday, November 27, as they square off against their long-time foil — the Denver Nuggets.

NBA odds favor the Clippers in this matchup as the Nuggets are on a back-to-back and their offense has fallen to pieces of late, but Denver has an incredible record against L.A. over the last three seasons.

My free NBA picks for the Nuggets vs. Clippers on November 27 are monitoring some troubling signs by Kawhi Leonard, who has struggled early this season.

Nuggets vs Clippers odds

Nuggets vs Clippers predictions

The current era of Los Angeles Clippers basketball is hanging on by a thread. While it’s too soon to bury them by any means, they don’t have the look of a title contender. Even though they’ve begun to look like a more cohesive unit after their early struggles that followed the James Harden trade, there is real cause for concern.

The primary focus of that concern is pretty simple. Kawhi Leonard does not look like a Top 5 NBA player... and if he’s not that — and so far he hasn’t been close — then L.A. simply has no realistic chance of competing with the Denver Nuggets or any other top team in the West.

Kawhi’s scoring and efficiency have plummeted this season. His 56.2% true shooting is below league average, and he's currently having the worst season of his career on a points-per-shot basis — per Cleaning the Glass. The worrisome part is it looks like it’s the direct result of physical decline. The evidence of this is obvious when you see him move on the court, but it also shows up in his statistical profile everywhere.

His block rate is down, he’s getting to the free-throw line less, and he’s rebounding at a career-worst rate. All of that matches the eye test.

Kawhi simply isn’t moving the way he was during the playoffs against the Phoenix Suns prior to his latest knee injury. In that series, he looked like the best player on the floor in a series against Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. If he is going to be that player again, he’s not close right now.

Admirably, Kawhi has made an effort to play in every game this year despite his struggles and yet another off-season surgery. But the rigors of an 82-game season are clearly impacting him. He’s been rough in L.A.’s back-to-backs this season. Against the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday, he went 2-for-12 from the field for eight points.

Monday will be the Clippers' third game in four nights, and the Nuggets held him to just 15 points back on November 14. Leonard is also averaging just 19.1 points over his last 10 games.

My best bet: Kawhi Leonard Under 22.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Nuggets vs Clippers same-game parlay

Kawhi Leonard Under 22.5 points

Paul George Over 25.5 points

Michael Porter Jr. 15+ points

With Leonard faltering, it has been Paul George who has taken up the torch for the Clippers this season. So for Monday’s same-game parlay, I like Paul George Over 25.5 points to go along with my Kawhi Under. I’m also looping in Michael Porter Jr. as he’s been solid recently being Denver’s de facto second option.

George has been the one unequivocal bright spot for the Clippers this year. He’s been nothing short of awesome, and he’s found a great balance between his pull-up shooting and attacking the basket. That ability to attack the basket is going to be huge today, as the Nuggets are one of the worst teams when it comes to protecting the rim.

MPJ has been remarkably consistent with his production, averaging 19.8 points over his last five games on 45.5% from three, and poses some matchup difficulties for an older Clippers squad on the perimeter.

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Nuggets vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Clippers opened at -4.5 favorites over Denver on Sunday night, which has grown as high as -6 at some sportsbooks. The Nuggets are on a back-to-back, and despite playing against the lowly San Antonio Spurs, they were forced to keep their starters in for most of the fourth quarter to secure the win.

So the Nuggets are likely to be tired out, having traveled and played late last night before heading into Monday’s matchup. They’ve consistently underperformed against the spread this season as well, going 6-11.

But on the other hand, Denver has owned the matchup against the Clippers since Nikola Jokic has come into his powers. The Nuggets are 10-1 straight up against L.A. over their last 11 games stretching back to 2021. While the Clippers should have the edge, I am wary of picking against Denver here.

Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game with the total coming in at 219.5 and rising as high 220.5. That might seem odd due to the talent that will take the floor on Monday, but these have been two of the worst offenses in the NBA over the last two weeks.

The Nuggets have been particularly inept despite Jokic’s brilliance, ranking 25th in offense over their last eight games per Cleaning the Glass.

The Clippers have been a bit more coherent, but they’ve still been a below-average offense all season long. While some of that has been the growing pains of integrating Harden, much of it is that Leonard has simply not been good enough. Without a superstar Kawhi, this offense just isn’t that impressive.