Nuggets vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

02 December 2023

Nuggets vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

In a league where load management has been crucial, Denver has no problem playing on short rest. Read more as we're backing Nikola Jokic and the defending NBA champs as road dogs in our Nuggets vs. Kings betting picks.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Doubt the Denver Nuggets at your own risk, as doing so has been a losing strategy.

Tonight, on the second night of a back-to-back, they stand as five-point underdogs in the latest NBA odds. However, Denver has enjoyed considerable success when playing as underdogs.

The Sacramento Kings have had an up-and-down week, but two days of additional rest may not be enough to put away the Nuggets easily.

That’s our thinking in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Nuggets vs the Kings on December 2, with tip set for 10:00 ET.

Nuggets vs Kings odds

Nuggets vs Kings predictions

Denver Nuggets head coach Mike Malone and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic have built a culture in that locker room, one that doesn’t seem to care who is available, who is tired, or why Denver might be an underdog.

Last season, the Nuggets went 14-7 against the spread as underdogs, including 10-11 straight up. That has continued this season, with Denver going 2-0 ATS and SU as an underdog, including last night’s 119-111 win at Phoenix as a 1.5-point underdog.

This apparent culture goes beyond just rallying when doubted. The Nuggets went 8-4 ATS last year on the second night of back-to-backs. If that sounds absurd, it’s because it is.

Occam’s Razor explains those year-plus trends from Denver without much stress: Sportsbooks adjust league-wide for the second night of a back-to-back, but the Nuggets ethos bucks that trend.

Until sportsbooks properly adjust for what Malone and Jokic have built, there is a path to value tonight when Denver faces the Sacramento Kings.

My best bet: Nuggets +5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Nuggets vs Kings same-game parlay

Nuggets +5

Nikola Jokic Over 5.5 assists

De'Aaron Fox Over 28.5 points

As of Saturday afternoon, there is no word yet on Jamal Murray’s availability tonight after missing last night’s win in Phoenix with an ankle sprain. Speculating on his odds of playing would be misguided.

That said, Jokic had 16 assists last night and has averaged 11 assists per game in his last 10 games. The possibility of Murray being out or limited should add value to what is effectively a 50/50 prop otherwise.

Meanwhile, De’Aaron Fox has been on a hot streak. He has scored at least 29 points in six of his last 10 games and averaged 31.1 across that stretch. In the two games in which he fell short of this prop, he scored 28 points.

The speedy point guard took a major leap last year and just might be in the midst of another one now.

Best NBA bonuses

No-sweat 3+ leg SGP every day
Bonus bets back if your wager doesn’t win! Claim Now

Get up to $1,500 bonus bets back
If your first bet doesn’t win! Claim Now

Nuggets vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

The earliest numbers hit the market with Sacramento favored by just 2.5 points overnight.

Perhaps the sportsbooks did acknowledge Denver's earned credit in the last year-plus on these second nights of back-to-backs, while the market persists in doubting the Nuggets, pushing the spread to -4.5 by sunrise and -5 around lunchtime.

The earliest totals were set at 228.5, jumping to 230.5 by sunrise and then slipping up to 233 in mid-morning. Maybe that is an expectation of Murray playing, but that would run counter to the spread’s jump.