Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 4 predictions, odds and player props to target

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The old saying in sports regarding a playoff series is that the fourth win of a best-of-seven series is the hardest one to get. But considering how routinely the Denver Nuggets have handled the Los Angeles Lakers to claim a 3-0 lead in the NBA Western Conference final, will it really be all that tough for Denver to get the fourth one?

Consider that the Lakers have been able to achieve much of what they’d hoped to accomplish in Games 2 and 3. They’ve limited Denver’s former NBA MVP center Nikola Jokic. LA led by as much as 11 points in Game 2. They were down by two points heading into the final quarter of Game 3. And yet, when push came to shove, in each game, the Nuggets were the ones shunting the Lakers aside.

Oddsmakers are buying into the fourth game toughness angle. The Lakers are set as 3.5-point home favorites in Monday’s Game 4 at Crypto.com Arena (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The people are ready to just say no when it comes to supporting the Lakers. Giving the Nuggets 3.5 points has the spread splits all over Denver in the NBA public betting trends. The Nuggets are drawing 87% of handle and 63% of bets. Denver, though, is just 1-4-1 against the spread in the last six games against Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 5-2 ATS through their past seven games.

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The moneyline splits are also heavily Denver-centric. At +140, the Nuggets are getting 75% of handle and 74% of bets. Denver is 5-0 straight up over the last five games and 4-1 SU in the past five games facing the Lakers. LA was 9-0 SU in the last nine home games prior to the Game 3 loss to the Nuggets.

When it comes to the total of 224.5 points, public bettors are leaning toward the over as the play. It’s pulling in 60% of handle and 66% of bets. Denver has gone over in six of the club’s last eight road games. The over has also been the winning wager on the total in four of LA’s last five games.

From the beginning of the fourth quarter of Game 2, through halftime of Game 3, Nuggets guard Jamal Murray accounted for 53 points. Denver held a scoreboard edge of 90-79 over LA during that span.

This hasn’t merely been a case of Murray going off. Lakers coach Darvin Ham has sought every measure to put a governor on Murray’s production. He’s tried Jarred Vanderbilt, D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schroder and even LeBron James in bids to slow down Murray, and Murray has overcome all efforts to contain him.

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Foul trouble halted Jokic’s run of triple-doubles at four games, but in the fourth quarter, when Denver was poised to put a stranglehold on the series, he stepped up, scoring 15 of his 24 points. A 13-0 Nuggets run in the final quarter dealt a death knell to LA’s playoff hopes.

On the Lakers side of the ledger, they got 20-point games out of James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves. But James is clearly laboring on a weak ankle and he was only good for 23 points. Even the King doesn’t look capable of leading any sort of Showtime rally that might extend this series.

Pick: Denver Nuggets +3.5 (-110).

It certainly hasn’t been a Western Conference final showing that will be punctuating any LeBron career highlight reel. He’s scored 26, 22, and 23 points in LA’s three losses.

That fact of the matter is that King James has gotten to 30 points just once in his last 22 playoff games and hasn’t hit for 40 points since Game 5 of the 2020 NBA Finals. If you’re waiting for LeBron to get on his horse and ride to the rescue of the Lakers via one of his signature takeover performances, we suggest that holding your breath in anticipation would not be advisable.

That being said, it would be utterly foolhardy to think the greatest NBA player of this generation is going to go meekly into that goodnight. James is set with a 24.5 point total for Game 4. Take the over on that player prop at odds of -120.

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On the other hand, fading Lakers shooting guard Austin Reaves is very much advisable. He’s clearly been playing over his head in this series. He averaged a decent 13.0 points per game this season.

Reaves has scored a minimum of 22 points in each of his last four games. His career numbers announce quite strongly that this level of performance isn’t sustainable. Reaves is set with a Game 4 point total of 17.5. Go for a play on the under at a betting line of -120.

Setting up a same-game parlay for Game 4, we’re going to lean heavily into a desperate bunch of Lakers. Stay with James and the over on his point total of 24.5 at odds of -120.

To that we’re going to add a play on Lakers guard D’Angelo Russell. He was dreadful in Game 3, scoring a paltry three points on 1-for-8 from the field. But the one thing that’s assured with Russell is that no matter the outcome, he’ll just keep on shooting. He’s taken eight shots in each of the past two games, the only time during 15 postseason games that his shot total has fallen into single digits.

Russell is averaging 16 ppg at home during the playoffs. You can get an alternate point total on him at DraftKings of 10.5 points with a betting line of -115.

Combine that with the James play for odds of +260. A $10 winning wager on this same-game parlay will bring a return of $36.00.

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