Nuggets vs. Suns prediction and odds Game 3 (Bet OVER in Phoenix)

The Phoenix Suns’ backs are against the wall.

Down 0-2, and now without starting point guard Chris Paul, the Suns are in a must-win situation at home. The No. 1 seed Nuggets took both games in Denver against the No. 4 seed Suns by finding counters to the Suns defense around Nikola Jokic’s excellence. Without one of the key cogs of the Suns’ offense, how will they adjust at home?

Here are the odds and our best bet for Game 3 on Friday night:

Nuggets vs. Suns odds, spread and total

Nuggets vs. Suns prediction and pick

The biggest talking point is the Suns playing without Chris Paul, who suffered a groin strain in the second half of Game 2, a 97-87 loss in Denver.

The Suns are already short of quality players around Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and while Paul may not have the impact he once had at nearly 38 years old, the drop-off is steep to the likes of Cam Payne.

In the postseason, the Suns offense is scoring more than 13 fewer points per 100 possessions with CP3 off the floor, and allowing about nine more on defense. Looking at those numbers, the Suns would have the sixth best offense and the worst defense of all playoff teams, according to PBPStats.

I do believe across a one game sample that the Suns offense can get enough production from the role players at home to space the floor around Durant and Booker to generate enough offense, but the defense is going to struggle again.

Paul is as smart of a defender as there is in the league, even at his advanced age, and with him off the floor, it’s another target for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to hunt in the pick-and-roll.

The Suns play faster with CP3 off the floor, and I expect that to be a point of emphasis in Game 3 for coach Monty Williams.

Phoenix is out-manned and now banged up, but I do believe the offense can turn it up at home, but the defense is going to be left still searching for answers. I’m not interested in taking a side, but will eye the over that is overreacting to the low scoring Game 2 and the Paul injury. This game will be up-tempo and feature plenty of perimeter scoring.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.