Suns vs. Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Odds

sportsbookreview.com

28 April 2023

The No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets open a second-round series against the No. 4 seed Phoenix Suns, but they aren't favored to come out of the West. Here is our Suns vs. Nuggets prediction for Game 1 is based on the best NBA odds.

The Denver Nuggets were one of the top teams in the West all season, and they kept a vice grip on the No. 1 seed for the final three months. The Phoenix Suns’ campaign was a bit more turbulent due to extended absences for Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant.

Each team rolled to 4-1 series wins in their first-round matchups, and these talented titans kickoff the Western Conference semifinals with a tilt in Mile High on Saturday. Denver has been labeled a regular-season team, but is the squad led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic the real deal?

Here is our best Suns vs. Nuggets predictions (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Suns vs. Nuggets prediction

SGP: Booker Over 27.5 points, Durant Over 25.5 points, Booker Over 4.5 assists (+225 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Why not kick off this series with a parlay involving the best scoring duo in the NBA?

Since joining forces in Phoenix, Booker has averaged 28.5 points per game in the regular season and 37.2 in the postseason. Durant has averaged 26 points in the regular season and 28.4 in the postseason. Booker averaged 5.5 assists per game in the regular season overall, but he’s been better with Durant in the lineup, handing out 6.9 in the regular season and 6.4 in the postseason.

In eight regular-season games played together, the two scored 25 each four times. Booker also finished with at least five assists in all four. In the playoffs, Booker and Durant scored 25 apiece in all five games against Los Angeles, while Booker handed out at least five dimes in three of them.

This team has given heavy minutes to its starters given how weak the bench is, so we’d expect Durant and Booker to continue shouldering heavy loads on offense. Booker has been great as a facilitator, and in 13 total games played with Durant in the regular season and postseason, he’s handed out at least five assists 10 different times.

Series Total Games: 7 (+195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The Nuggets are short favorites to win Game 1, but the best NBA betting sites give Phoenix the edge to win the series. That means the Suns are expected to win at least one game on the road, despite going 12-13 away from home with Booker this season. Phoenix was 34-19 overall with Booker in the lineup, compared to 11-18 when he was sidelined. Denver finished with a 34-7 home record, which ranked second best in the Association behind only the Memphis Grizzlies. Phoenix was eighth at 28-13, including a 22-6 mark at Footprint Center with Booker.

Both teams are top-nine in net rating. Denver was a top-five offense, while Phoenix was a top-seven defense. Both teams finished top-15 in offensive and defensive rating. The Nuggets were one of three teams with a net rating of 10 or better at home, while the Suns ranked top-nine in net rating at home and on the road. Denver had the ninth worst net rating on the road at -3.2.

The Over/Under on total games for this series is set at 5.5. Given how well these teams have played all season, and how they performed in the first round, betting on seven games makes the most sense here. Home-court advantage should play a major role in the outcome of the series, so we’re betting on this one going the distance and concluding with a winner-take-all showdown in Denver.

Suns vs. Nuggets best odds

DraftKings (+225)

Only three of our featured books offer this same-game parlay. PointsBet comes close, but Booker’s assist total comes in at 5.5 rather than 4.5. Ultimately, we can get the most profitable odds at DraftKings and confidently take Booker’s assist prop at 4.5.

DraftKings (+195)

There’s not much variation in these odds across the best sportsbooks, but DraftKings offers the best deal for this series prop.

Suns vs. Nuggets odds

Suns vs. Nuggets odds analysis

The Suns are 12-1 straight up with Durant in the lineup this season including the playoffs, but the Nuggets have received 59% of the action to cover a short 2.5-point spread at home. Denver covered in three of four regular-season matchups with Phoenix, winning both games in which Durant was not yet on the team. Denver covered in 23 of 40 games as the home favorite overall.

In terms of how often a team hit the Over this season, Denver was a bottom-10 team and Phoenix was a top-10 team. Both teams have hit the Over in three of their last four, and 69% of wagers have been placed on the Over for Saturday’s matchup. The total opened at a modest 224.5, and it has since climbed up to 226 at the best sports betting sites.