Oddballs: Analyzing the Sharks position in the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery

First introduced in 1995 and most recently adjusted for the 2021 and 2022 NHL Drafts, the NHL's Draft Lottery system is designed to determine the order of selection in the first round of the NHL Draft for the teams not qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The system, based on the reverse-order finish of the NHL's regular season standings, has undergone numerous changes over the years, with the most recent changes being:

a) limiting the number of Lottery Draws from three to two.
b) limiting the number of positions a team can move up to 10, so only the top 11 teams are eligible to win the first overall selection.
c) limiting how often a team can win the NHL Lottery Draw - no more than two times in any five-year period.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR?
Last year, San Jose finished 11th in reverse-order standings, and was not impacted by the results of the draft lottery. That is typical for most of the teams outside of the top six, as the implemented weighting system means that the odds of winning continue to diminish as you get higher in the regular season standings. In 2022, the Sharks had just a 3.0-percent chance of winning the first lottery draw and only a slightly higher chance of winning the second draw.

Ultimately, San Jose opted to maximize the value of the 11th overall selection for quantity in a draft-day deal with Arizona. In what would be Mike Grier's first trade as general manager, the Sharks acquired a first-round selection (27th overall) and two second-round selections (34th and 45th overall) and used those selections to add Filip Bystedt (27th), Cam Lund (34th) and Mattias Havelid (45th) to the organization's prospect pool. Early returns on this decision have been positive: Last season, Bystedt finished third in SHL scoring by forwards 20 or younger and co-led Sweden in points (10 in seven games) at the 2022 World Junior Championship. Lund enjoyed a productive freshman season at Northeastern, scoring his first collegiate hat trick on Nov. 11 against Boston College, being co-named Northeastern Rookie of the Year and named to the Hockey East All-Rookie Team. Havelid was the fifth leading scorer among SHL under-20 defensemen despite playing in less than half of Linkoping's games.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MAY 8
The 2023 NHL Draft Lottery will take place on Monday, May 8, at NHL Network's Secaucus, N.J., studio and will be broadcast live beginning at 5 p.m. PT on ESPN, Sportsnet and TVA Sports.

This season, San Jose enters with a 9.5-percent chance at winning the first draw. Below are the first-draw lottery odds per team:

THE SCENARIOS
San Jose is eligible to select anywhere from first to sixth overall, depending on the results of each of the lottery draws. Here is a breakdown of possible outcomes on May 8.

First overall: San Jose will be awarded the first overall selection by winning the first lottery draw (9.5-percent odds).

Second overall: San Jose will be awarded the second overall selection if they win the second lottery draw and if any eligible team other than the 12th-place team wins the first lottery draw.

Third overall: San Jose will be awarded the third overall selection if the team with the 12th-best lottery odds (Ottawa) wins the first lottery draw, and San Jose wins the second lottery draw. It's important to note that a lottery winner can only move up a maximum of 10 spots. Thus, if a team with the 12th through 16th best odds wins the first lottery draw, they would move up the maximum ten positions (2nd to 6th respectively), and that would lock in the team currently with the best odds (Anaheim) at the first overall draft position. This means Anaheim would choose first overall and Ottawa second overall. If the Sharks won the second lottery draw, they would move to third overall.

Fourth overall: San Jose will be awarded the fourth overall selection if the two lottery draws are won by any combination of Anaheim (#1), Columbus (#2), Chicago (#3), Nashville (#15), and Calgary (#16). The Sharks could also get fourth overall if either Nashville or Calgary win the first draw and the team with the 14th best odds wins the second draw.

Fifth overall and sixth overall: San Jose will be awarded the fifth or sixth overall selection if they do not win either lottery draw and one or both lottery draw-winning teams are below them in the draft-lottery odds, respectively. Calgary (#16) is an exception to this and cannot directly impact San Jose's spot by winning either lottery draw.