Odds and Ends: Get Real in search for Champions League winners
WHEN Uefa introduced the concept of a ‘Champions League’ in the early 1990s, the move away from the old, straight knock-out European Cup was roundly derided.
However, over the past 30 years we have become so accustomed to the competition that it now feels like part of the furniture.
Naturally, Europe’s governing body have decided to rip it up and start again, and from next term the top club tournament in world football will have a new look, one that at this stage appears totally ludicrous.
The competition will be expanded from 32 teams to 36, with all of them in one table and all getting eight games instead of six, instantly adding more revenue for the organisers and sponsors.
I’m sure it will bed in over time, but for now we should enjoy one last hurrah for the old ‘traditional’ format of eight groups of four teams, with the top pair from each section reaching the knock-out stages after Christmas.
The main criticism of the established Champions League is that the groups can be too predictable, and again it would be fairly easy to pick 13 or 14 of the 16 qualifiers before a ball is kicked.
That said, there have always been some heavyweight clashes in the early throes, and that is no different this time around, with the first round of fixtures giving us Bayern Munich versus Manchester United in a repeat of the infamous 1999 final.
United are nowhere near the beast they were at the turn of the century, and Red Devils fans had to sit and squirm last season as neighbours City finally got over the line in Europe to emulate their treble achievement of 24 years ago.
Pep Guardiola’s men have long been regarded as the best side in Europe, but finally lived up to that billing when seeing off Inter Milan in a tense final in Istanbul, and they are strong favourites to retain their hold on the trophy at Wembley come June.
Certainly, City look the most rounded and established team about and a best quote of 9/4 before their opener against Red Star Belgrade is probably justifiable.
The addition of Erling Haaland to the ranks last term gave them something totally different, but the key factor in their success may actually have been Guardiola’s lack of tinkering once he had hit on the winning formula.
The manner with which they swatted aside Bayern and then Real Madrid in the knock-out stages hinted at a gap to the rest of the elite that will take some bridging, and while influential captain Ilkay Gundogan has left for Barcelona and playmaker Kevin De Bruyne is on the long-term injury list, there is no doubt they are the team to beat as they defend their title.
That said, so much can go wrong over a long season, and I’m just not interested in backing any team at 9/4.
Bayern (11/2) and Real (8/1) are seen by the layers as the biggest challengers, and the Bavarians will be in confident mood having finally replaced Robert Lewandowski with Harry Kane, even if it is a year too late.
The England captain has hit the ground running in the Bundesliga and will be the focal point for a side who only just retained their domestic title thanks to a Borussia Dortmund slip-up on the final day.
Thomas Tuchel has had more time to get his feet under the table, and it would be a surprise were they not to win Group A and advance to the latter stages.
However, at bigger odds, Real are the members of the big three of most interest, and their potent mix of youth and experience may just give them a higher ceiling than Bayern.
Jude Bellingham has been a revelation in his short time in the Spanish capital thus far, and Carlo Ancelotti has a wealth of midfield talent to call on, with Aurelien Tchouameni coming into his own.
Luka Modric and Toni Kroos are no longer guaranteed starters but provide the know-how from the dominant sides of the last decade, while Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior – due back soon from injury – are an attacking duo that can give any defence nightmares.
Karim Benzema may have joined Lionel Messi and Cristano Ronaldo in bidding farewell to the Champions League, but Real can still be a force in his absence and look a fine bet at 8/1 to make it 15 European Cup successes.
Outside of the market leaders, Arsenal are seen as the most likely challengers at 11/1 (Betway), but they have much to learn after a six-year absence from the top table and the extra demands will be a test of Mikel Arteta and his admittedly impressive squad.
With Newcastle and Man United the other Premier League sides going to post, it could be argued this is the weakest English challenge for quite some time, and neither are viable contenders, while La Liga champions Barcelona (14/1 generally) still have much to prove after bowing out of two European competitions in quick fashion last term.
PSG (16/1, Bet365) do look a more balanced side for the departures of Messi and Neymar and some sensible signings, although they have made a slow start under Luis Enrique and are in a very difficult Group F alongside Dortmund, Newcastle and AC Milan.
Therefore, of those at bigger odds, last season’s beaten finalists Inter might just be worth a bet at 25/1 generally.
The draw opened up for Simone Inzaghi’s side last term but they took full advantage and gave City a good test in the decider.
They appear to have taken great confidence into the new campaign, winning their first four Serie A games, scoring 13 times in the process and hammering neighbours AC 5-1 at the weekend.
Marcus Thuram has found his feet very quickly up front alongside skipper Lautaro Martinez, while Yann Sommer has replaced Andre Onana in goal and Benjamin Pavard will add nous to a well-drilled defence.
Inter start in a kind enough Group D along with Benfica, Red Bull Salzburg and Real Sociedad and are a great bet at 10/11 to top the section.
From there they would need the draw to be kind but the Champions League in its current guise has a history of throwing up surprise finalists and it might provide another shock or two before Uefa knock it down and start again.
SELECTIONS
Real Madrid, 8/1 (General);
Inter Milan, e/w, 25/1 (General); to win Group D, 10/11 (Sky Bet)
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Prolific Pole Lewandowski can push Haaland in scoring charts
LIONEL Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo dominated the Champions League goalscoring charts for well over a decade, but we might now be moving into the Erling Haaland era, at least if the bookies’ odds for this season’s honours are to believed.
The Norwegian marksman plundered 12 goals in Manchester City’s run to the title last term, the second time he has been Europe’s top gun, having also found the net 10 times for Borussia Dortmund in their 2020/21 campaign.
Haaland is no bigger than 6/5 to emerge as number one again ahead of their opener against Red Star Belgrade, and he could very quickly go odds-on.
It is very hard to see him easing up, but the odds make no appeal, while his presence also makes it hard to see an angle for backing either Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively despite the fact they almost guarantee goals.
Therefore, I’m looking at a few each-way plays in this market, and the 11/1 offered by Unibet about Robert Lewandowski definitely catches the eye in that regard.
The Polish veteran topped the charts as Bayern won the title in 2020, finding the net 15 times, and also scored 13 in 2021/22.
He swapped Munich for Barcelona after that and hit five in this competition despite Barca going out in the group stages, while keeping up his prolific ways on the domestic front.
I don’t really see the Catalans as major Champions League challengers, but they should win a soft group alongside Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk and Antwerp, and you never quite know what can happen in the knock-out phase.
Seven or eight goals are usually needed to get place money here, and Lewandowski has ample opportunity to get that at least.
Vinicius Junior got seven for Real Madrid last season, and while he will miss their opener against Union Berlin, he is also worth an each-way look at 33/1 (William Hill).
With Karim Benzema moving on, the Brazilian will have more responsibility in the Real attack and can prove up to the challenge, while he will also find himself in central positions more.
Madrid are certain to go deep into the competition and Vinicius needs to step up his scoring returns.
Finally, Inter skipper Lautaro Martinez might just have found his perfect foil in Marcus Thuram, and has started the season superbly.
The Argentine striker has never quite translated his prolific Serie A form to Europe, but in a buoyant team this could be his season and he is overpriced at 66/1 to sneak into a place in a market that looks likely to be dominated by one man.
TOP GOALSCORER SELECTIONS
Robert Lewandowski, e/w, 11/1 (Unibet);
Vinicius Junior, e/w, 33/1 (William Hill);
Lautaro Martinez, top goalscorer, e/w, 66/1 (General)
