Odds and Ends: Manchester City still far too slick but Liverpool could be best of the rest in Premier League race

AFTER emulating neighbours Manchester United by hitting the treble last season, Pep Guardiola’s Man City side will set off for another long campaign with the aim of creating a bit of history all for themselves.

City get the Premier League season up-and-running away to newly-promoted Burnley – managed by former skipper Vincent Kompany – on Friday night, and will hope to end it by becoming the first team ever to do a quadruple of successive English League titles.

And such was their dominance over the second half of a disjointed season last term that there are very few reasons for their rivals to get excited about their chances of closing the gap.

The champions made it three on the bounce in May, turning what had looked like a title race with Arsenal into something of a procession, retaining their crown with three games to spare.

They then saw off United in the FA Cup decider and Inter Milan in the Champions League final to underline their status as the best club side in Europe, and there is no surprise to see them marked up as odds-on favourites before a ball is kicked in the English top flight.

City actually made a faltering start to last term, but the aim was always just to stay in touch until things ground to halt for the World Cup in Qatar before they timed their run to perfection in the latter stages of the campaign, as they have done on numerous occasions previously.

Skipper Ilkay Gundogan was a key figure in that glut of trophies, but he has moved on to Barcelona, while Riyad Mahrez has joined the gold rush to Saudi Arabia, but Guardiola never worries about letting players move on if they want to go, and the depth in his squad should send shudders down the spines of the other managers at England’s big clubs.

Mateo Kovacic has come in from Chelsea to cover for Gundogan’s departure, while Josko Gvardiol will add to their defensive options, presumably allowing John Stones to spend more time in the hybrid midfield role he has excelled in.

The England man was arguably the best player in Europe in the second half of the season, but Erling Haaland took all the headlines as he ripped up the goalscoring record books, with his physical presence and insatiable appetite giving City a real spearhead to get on the end of the creative wizardry orchestrated by Kevin De Bruyne.

It is a potent blend that shows no signs of going off the boil, and at 5/6 City will have some backers, and the big question is whether anyone can even run them close.
Arsenal came closest last season under Mikel Arteta, and the bookies have them as the nearest challengers again at 5/1 to win their first league title since ‘The Invincibles’ season of 2003/04.

Considering the Gunners were 50/1 shots this time last year, there is no doubt Arteta has made real progress, and a return to the Champions League provides tangible consolation for falling short in the title fight.

The London club clearly want to strike while the iron is hot, with their signing of Declan Rice for upwards of £100m a huge signal of intent, while Jurrien Timber and Kai Havertz have also been brought in for big money.

There is little doubt Arsenal have loads of talent, with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli getting better all the time and captain Martin Odegaard a quality schemer, but I’d still have doubts about them defensively, with an injury to William Saliba totally derailing them at the business end of last term, when they won just three of their last nine games to finish a fine campaign with a whimper.

Arteta is also a maiden when it comes to trophies, and while I can see Arsenal maintaining their place in the top four, I’m not sure they will be quite as close to the pace.

Jurgen Klopp and Erik ten Hag have plenty of silverware in their back catalogues, and it may come down to their Liverpool and United sides to keep City honest over the next nine months.

Ten Hag made significant strides in his first season at the Old Trafford helm, restoring some pride and actual tactics after the debacle of Ralf Rangnick’s short reign, and a third-placed finish to go with a Carabao Cup win and FA Cup final appearance was a better return than most United fans dreamt of.

The Dutchman has also shown a ruthless streak that bodes well, getting rid of Cristiano Ronaldo and running out of patience with David de Gea after a series of high-profile errors.

Andre Onana has been brought in between the posts to get things moving with his ball-playing skills, and Rasmus Hojlund could be the striker the Red Devils have been crying out for, even if it might pay not to expect a too much straight away from the young Dane, who has limited experience at the top level. 

Mason Mount knows exactly what the Premier League is all about and can add energy to United’s attacking play, while Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford will have big roles to play.

That said, the key to their fortunes will be keeping the trio of Casemiro, Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez fit as United looked a very good team when they all got a run of games around the turn of the year, and dropped off when any of them were absent.

If Ten Hag can get rid of the odd shocking performance and build on strong home form, United can keep their place in the top three, although I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 11/1 for a first title of the post-Fergie era.

The most shocking performance put in by United last term came in the 7-0 loss at old rivals Liverpool, who had a very poor 2022/23 by their recent standards, but showed on occasions that the fire hasn’t been extinguished quite yet.

Klopp’s men signed off with seven wins on the bounce to finish fifth after a campaign littered with lethargic defeats to lesser lights.

The German has moved to add energy to his midfield, with a definite changing of the guard and alteration in style taking place.

Jordan Henderson, Fabinho and James Milner have moved on, with World Cup winner Alexis Mac Allister signed from Brighton and Hungarian schemer Dominik Szobozlai tasked with providing the bullets – along with Trent Alexander-Arnold – for a refreshed attack.

The forward division will be headed by Mo Salah who will be surrounded by movement and exuberance from Darwin Nunez, Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz, who has returned from long-term injury and may feel like a new player for the Anfield faithful.

The Reds really struggled at the other end of the pitch last season, with Virgil van Dijk taking a notable dip either side of the World Cup, but there is proven pedigree in the ranks and I’m fully expecting a reaction from them.

Being in the Europa League provides a unique challenge of Thursday-Sunday games, but Klopp and his players have sufficient experience to navigate that and they could well resume their position as City’s closest challengers, so it is worthwhile backing the City-Liverpool straight forecast at 13/2 with Sky Bet.

Newcastle, meanwhile, were well ahead of schedule by finishing fourth and securing Champions League football, something that will bring new challenges to Eddie Howe and his squad.

The Magpies’ Saudi owners have again been measured in terms of recruitment, with Milan midfielder Sandro Tonali the main capture, and with Alex Isak and Callum Wilson offering a proper goalscoring threat they should be towards the top end of the table for years to come.

That said, going from no European football to the Champions League might just see them finish out of the top four this term, while Mauricio Pochettino and Ange Postecoglou will be hard-pressed to get back into that mix in their first seasons at the helm at Chelsea and Spurs respectively.

Pochettino has a massive job on his hands after a disastrous campaign saw Chelsea finish 12th, with both Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter falling foul of Todd Boehly’s trigger finger, an impatience that is at odds with a recruitment policy of buying youngsters on long contracts.

Big summer signing Christopher Nkunku is out injured for a few months, so a return to the top six might be the limit for Chelsea, while Spurs need clarity over Harry Kane.

Postecoglou might be happy enough with a wad of cash to spend on players who fit the free-wheeling template he installed at Celtic, but it will take him time to get his point across, regardless of the personnel. 

The Australian will get it right eventually if given time, but for this season it should pay to stick with the tried and trusted, with City almost certain to lead the way yet again and create more history with English football’s first ever quadruple.

OUTRIGHT SELECTIONS

Manchester City-Liverpool, straight forecast, 13/2 (bet365);

Man City-Liverpool-Man United, top three exact order, 18/1 (Sky Bet);

Man City-Liverpool-Man United-Arsenal, top four any order, 3/1 (Sky Bet);

John Stones, PFA Player of the Year, 80/1 (Betway)