Odds, Picks & Predictions: Mets Vs. Braves (9/30/22)

Betting Matchup Preview

• Who: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
• When: Friday, Sept. 30
• Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
• Where: Truist Park (Atlanta, Georgia)

Betting Odds Summary

• Moneyline: Mets -132, Braves +112
• Runline: Mets -1.5 (+140), Braves +1.5 (-170)
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 Runs (-102/-120)

Odds and lines are current from FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of writing and subject to change.

The New York Mets (98-58) head to Atlanta on Friday to face off against the Atlanta Braves (97-59) in the final regular-season series between these two NL East rivals. Atlanta is just one game behind New York in the race for the division crown, so this series could determine the winner. 

The Mets had the day off on Thursday after a walk-off win over the Miami Marlins on Wednesday night to regain their slim lead over the Braves. New York holds a 9-7 edge in the season series over Atlanta, meaning one more win gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish the season with identical records.

The Braves were also off on Thursday but will try to pull even in the standings behind southpaw Max Fried (13-7, 2.50 ERA) tonight. Fried has been fantastic all season but has been especially strong in September, posting a 2.05 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 22 innings this month. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in nine consecutive starts, compiling a 50:10 K/BB ratio during that span.

This will be Fried’s fifth time facing the Mets this season after allowing precisely two earned runs in each of the previous four, making him a good bet to extend that streak we just mentioned.

Fried is not the only ace taking the mound tonight, however, as he’ll go up against Jacob deGrom (5-3, 2.93 ERA). deGrom didn’t make his season debut until Aug. 2 due to injury and has been hot and cold since then, recording a 1.98 ERA in August followed by a 4.50 ERA in September.

deGrom’s poor month is even more concerning given that all four of his starts in September have come against teams with losing records. That won’t be the case tonight, as he’ll face the reigning World Series champs for the third time this season. The first two starts came during his sensational August, so the Mets are hoping he can bounce back and finish the month on a high note.

Despite New York playing on the road and deGrom’s recent skid, the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook list the Mets as baseball betting favorites at -132 on the moneyline with a low total of 6.5 runs. 

Our Best Bet Today 

Atlanta has been absurdly hot for four months now, with a .698 winning percentage since the beginning of June. The Braves took three of four from the Mets during their most recent series in August and also have the hotter pitcher on the mound tonight.

We’re surprised to see Atlanta listed as home underdogs given their .667 winning percentage at Truist Park this year and recommend taking a shot on them in this crucial series opener. Fried and the Braves are playing too well to fade in such a vital spot. 

With +112 betting odds for Atlanta, a winning $100 wager would pay $112 in profits plus your initial stake back.

Our Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays are a way to increase the odds and potential payout as opposed to making bets separately. For more information, check out our same-game parlay guide.

Here are the three prop bets we’ve selected for Friday’s same-game parlay: 

• Dansby Swanson To Record a Hit (-150)
• Jacob deGrom Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-150)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. To Record a Run (+120)

These bets combine for odds of +592, so a winning $100 wager would return $592 in profits plus your original stake back.

The lead leg of our same-game parlay for Friday is on Dansby Swanson to record a hit. Despite a poor month overall, Swanson has 10 hits in his last nine games and is batting .302/.360/.466 at home this year. 

The second leg of our parlay is for deGrom to fan at least nine Braves on Friday. While we aren’t sold on him limiting runs right now, his ability to strike batters out has never been in question. He’s fanned at least nine batters in seven of his 10 starts this year, including two of his last three. The Braves also have the third-highest whiff rate in baseball (24.5%) and have struck out 21 times in 12 ⅓ innings against deGrom this season.

Lastly, we’re banking on Ronald Acuna Jr. to score at least one run tonight. Atlanta’s leadoff man has eight runs in his last 12 games and is always a good bet to cross the plate for an offense that’s generated the third-most runs in MLB.