Odds, trends and two to back

One of the biggest handicap races staged in Europe takes place on day four of York's Ebor Festival, as 22 talented stayers take part in the Ebor Handicap. This contest was first run on the Knavesmire in the 1840s and legendary names like Lily Agnes, Brown Jack, Sea Pigeon and Further Flight feature on the glittering roll of honour.

I've taken a look through the betting for the Ebor Handicap, listed some key recurring trends and picked out my best betting tips.

Victory for Sweet William at Glorious Goodwood guaranteed the Gosden's four-year-old would get a run in the Ebor. Rab Havlin's mount has looked like a group horse masquerading in handicap company, but a very low draw in stall three could pose a problem, if the trends are to be believed.

Willie Mullins has two runners sitting prominently in the market, with Absurde being joined in the field by Jackfinbar. Frankie Dettori will again ride Absurde, having partnered Mullins' runner in the Ascot Stakes. William Buick rides the well-backed Jackfinbar and both of Willie's raiders have to be respected.

2023 Ebor Handicap Tip 1 - Real Dream

I'm going to stick with both of my ante-post selections, starting with REAL DREAM (Was 10/1, now 8/1), who was backed into 3/1 favouritism for the Jorvik Handicap on the back of an easy reappearance win at Kempton.

Ryan Moore was under pressure at an early stage in that race, as his mount got a little outpaced entering the straight. Scampi eventually ran out a ready winner, but I was impressed with the way Real Dream responded for pressure in the closing stage to cross the line a one-length third. Stoute's rising star then bolted up over the Ebor distance in a handicap at Ascot, winning by five lengths without overly exerting himself. 

Given his breeding - by Lope De Vega and out of a Group One winning mare - and his trainer's prowess at helping older horses progress, I wouldn't be surprised to see Real Dream running in pattern races before the season is out. With Ryan Moore in the saddle again, I can't pass up the chance to back him in a handicap off what could prove to be a lenient mark.

2023 Ebor Handicap Tip 2 - Scriptwriter

I'm surprised, after such an excellent effort behind the classy Hamish over the Ebor course-and-distance last month, to see that the talented SCRIPTWRITER (Was 20/1, now 16/1) can still be backed at such a lengthy price.

Formerly trained by Aidan O'Brien, Scriptwriter enjoyed an excellent juvenile hurdle campaign for Milton Harris, winning a Group Two at Cheltenham before rounding off his campaign with a fifth-place finish at Aintree. Harris' star struggled to get involved from off the pace on his return to the flat at Royal Ascot, but bounced back with a superb effort in the Silver Cup Stakes, losing out to 117-rated Hamish by just a head.

Harris' four-year-old managed to reach an excellent juvenile rating of 130 over hurdles, despite jumping fairly poorly on more than one occasion. On the flat, Scriptwriter remains fairly unexposed, having run just six times and only twice in handicap company.

Scriptwriter has since been snapped up by Australian connections, with the aim of running in this year's Melbourne Cup. The Ebor Festival will be Scriptwriter's final start for Milton Harris and, based on that effort in Group Three company, he could be dangerously well-handicapped running off this fresh mark of 106.