Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds, Prediction & Top Prop
On Saturday night, #6 Ohio State will travel to play #9 Notre Dame in one of the most highly-anticipated matchups of the young college football season. Both the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish enter play this evening undefeated with their national title hopes alive, but only one team will still be able to say the same after tonight’s action. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EST on NBC.
Ahead of kickoff, Ohio State is priced as 3.5-point favorites on the spread, with the total set at 55.5 points.
In our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, and deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Ohio State
What to expect from Kyle McCord
Entering play on Saturday, Kyle McCord has a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 69.7% completion rate. However, he has four turnover-worthy plays according to PFF despite playing three inferior opponents to begin the campaign. McCord’s early season struggles have been particularly concerning given the immense talent that the Buckeyes have in the wide receiver room. McCord could struggle in this matchup against a Notre Dame defense that has allowed only a 44.3% completion rate through their first four games.
How good is Ohio State’s defense?
According to Phil Steele, the Buckeyes returned seven defensive starters from last year’s group. On the defensive line, they lost defensive end Zach Harrison to the NFL Draft but remain loaded with talent in that unit. Each of the top-three tacklers from the 2022 linebacker corps returned, making it one of the top units in the entire nation. The talent in the front seven has been on full display against weak competition during the first month of the season, allowing only 250 rushing yards and 2.53 yards per carry so far this fall.
The secondary unit has also been strong so far, though it has yet to face a signal caller anywhere near as Sam Hartman. Overall, this is the second year in Jim Knowles’ defense, and with seven returning starters, this group should hold up well in their first real test of the year.
Notre Dame
Sam Hartman looking to make Heisman statement
Sam Hartman has been spectacular in his first four games with the Fighting Irish, throwing for 13 touchdowns and 1,061 passing yards without tossing an interception. However, he has yet to be tested against a strong defense. In the limited sample size we have to analyze so far in 2023, Hartman has struggled mightily under pressure and has some of the starkest splits in the nation when under pressure relative to throwing from a clean pocket. According to PFF, Hartman has completed 56-of-76 pass attempts this year for 12.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket but only 8-of-16 pass attempts for 7.4 yards per attempt when under duress. His turnover-worthy play percentage jumps from 1.2% in a clean pocket to 8.7% under pressure. If the Buckeyes can get pressure on him tonight, expect Hartman to struggle.
Notre Dame defense ready to make a stand
This season, Notre Dame returned eight starters on the defensive side of the ball. The early returns have been encouraging, with 17 points allowed or fewer in three of their first four games. Their run defense has allowed 2.6 yards per carry or fewer three times so far this season, and the secondary unit has made life extremely difficult on opposing quarterbacks, with nine pass breakups and five interceptions while allowing only a 52.0 passer rating.
However, the key to this game will be getting pressure on Kyle McCord. Through three games this season, Ohio State’s offensive line has only allowed one sack and 12 quarterback pressures, but they have also not faced a single team that is in the top 50 in the nation in talent. Notre Dame’s defense has generated 69 pressures in four games this year and figures to make an impact once again on Saturday night.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Betting Picks
According to teamrankings.com, Ohio State ranks 104th in pace, and Notre Dame ranks 118th in pace of play this year out of 133 teams in the country. Both Kyle McCord and Sam Hartman have stark splits from a clean pocket compared to when they are under pressure, and both quarterbacks figure to be under pressure a fair amount this evening against talented pass rushes. These two defenses have a combined 15 returning starters from 2022 and both have been stout against opposing ground attacks during the first month of the regular season. Assuming there are no major special teams blunders or costly turnovers that result in a short field, the under has a great chance to cash in this contest.
FREEPICK: Under 55.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction
Kyle McCord + Sam Hartman Less Than 509.5 Passing Yards (Combo), PrizePicks
This season, Kyle McCord has a 74.2% completion rate and has averaged 11.9 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, but has a 40.0% completion rate and is averaging only 2.7 yards per attempt when under pressure. Sam Hartman has a 73.7% completion rate and has averaged 12.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, but has only a 50.0% completion rate and is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt when under pressure. Both of these quarterbacks will be facing their toughest test of the season on Saturday night against a strong opposing defense. Do not be surprised if one or both of these signal callers struggle mightily in this spot.
