USC vs. Utah, Penn State vs. Ohio State pick: College football odds

How we’re betting three college football matchups on Saturday:

USC (-7) over Utah

It’s the ultimate buy-low spot on USC after an embarrassing loss to Notre Dame.

It’s also an excellent sell-high spot on the Utes (5-1).

Their offense is dreadful without quarterback Cam Rising (torn ACL), and their defensive metrics are inflated from an easy schedule.

Utah must establish the run, given it doesn’t have a quarterback who can be counted on to complete a forward pass.

And, despite the loss, USC proved it could stop the run against Notre Dame, allowing only 125 yards at 4.3 yards per carry.

Remember, the Trojans can still score. They rank ninth in EPA per play and second in points per game. I expect them to bounce back and outscore Utah convincingly.

Penn State (+4.5) over OHIO STATE

Ohio State needs to throw the ball because it can’t effectively run, ranking 96th nationally in EPA per rush.

Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, Penn State boasts the nation’s best pass defense, dialing up pressure while trusting its elite defensive backs to cover one-on-one.

The Nittany Lions blitz on 56 percent of their plays and boast the second-highest sack rate (14 percent) while allowing the lowest on-target completion rate.

They rank first in EPA per pass and pass success rate allowed.

Meanwhile, Ohio State’s offense looks pedestrian behind Kyle McCord, scoring only 23 points against Indiana, posting a 4 percent postgame win expectancy against Notre Dame, and leading Maryland by less than a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

McCord struggles under pressure (14-for-52 passing in pressure pockets) and is overdue for interceptions (one interception, seven turnover-worthy throws). It’s a brutal matchup against the quarterback-killing, ball-hawking Lions.

I’m betting Ohio State struggles to move the ball, and McCord makes critical mistakes.

Drew Allar must make throws to win this game, but he can make more than McCord. He’s too talented.

MIAMI (OHIO) (+1.5) over Toledo

At home in their biggest game of the season against the reigning MAC champions, I’m betting the RedHawks prove themselves as the Class of the MAC.

Miami’s metrics aren’t great, but they’re deflated from a 35-point season-opening loss to Miami (Fla.).

Since then, the RedHawks are 6-0 with a +122 point differential and a Power Five win over Cincinnati.

Brett Gabbert has played elite, and the front seven has stopped the run — holding four of six offenses under 80 rushing yards — while generating the sixth-highest sack rate.

Betting on College Football?

The Rockets look good on paper, but their numbers are inflated from playing FBS’s sixth-easiest schedule.

Three of their six wins were by one possession, so they’re due for a close-game loss.

Toledo rushes at a top-10 rate nationally, spelling trouble against Miami’s elite rush defense.

And aside from the Texas Southern game, quarterback Dequan Finn has been mediocre, amassing 10 turnover-worthy plays to six big-time throws.

The RedHawks are catching two, but my numbers make them favorites.

Last week: 0-2. Purdue (L), Texas A&M (L)
2023 Season: 11-9