Ohio vs. Buffalo Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11

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06 November 2023

Ohio vs. Buffalo Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11

Ohio and Buffalo square off in a clash of 3-2 MAC teams to wrap up a Tuesday night MAC tripleheader, and we present our Ohio vs. Buffalo prediction basedon the best college football odds.

Over the last four weeks, Ohio (6-3, 3-2 MAC) has alternated between wins and losses. Its recent defeat, a 30-16 loss to Miami (OH), was particularly crushing. The RedHawks now hold a one-game lead over the Bobcats in the MAC East — in effect, it's a two-game lead since they possess the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Buffalo, with a 3-6 overall record and a 3-2 MAC conference record, faces the challenge of winning all of its remaining games to reach bowl eligibility. In the team's most recent game it suffered a 31-13 defeat at the hands of Toledo, the only unbeaten team in MAC play, ending Buffalo's three-game winning streak in the series since 2018. To secure a postseason bowl berth, the Bulls must now regroup and aim for a perfect record in their upcoming matchups.

Hereis our best Ohio vs. Buffalo prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college footballbetting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ohio vs. Buffalo prediction:Week 11

Under 44.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Buffalo has a solid running back tandem between Ron Cook Jr. andMike Washington, but the pair have not been able to generate many big plays onthe ground this season, largely because the Bulls have no threat of a passinggame.

Buffalo entered last week ranked 116th or worse in on-targetpercentage in passing attempts and overall passing success rate. That's a bigreason Cook and Washington have just seven runs of 15-plus yards on 183combined attempts this season.

Meanwhile, the Bulls' defense is solid despite a 3-6 record, as it entered last week ranked in the top 25 in line yards and passing success rate allowed and the top 15 in explosive passing allowed. Buffalo’s defenseheld up well against Toledo, the highest-scoring team in the MAC, holding themto just 24 points after they ran back the opening kickoff.

Ohio should also do its part defensively in keeping the scoringdown. A Bobcats defense that ranked in the top 20 nationally with a 35% rushing success rate gave up 188 yards on the ground to the RedHawks, but Miami (OH)averaged just a modest 4.1 yards per rush as they pounded the Bobcats with 46rushing attempts.

This is still an Ohio defense that has allowed thethird-fewest points in conference play (15.7 points per game), and gusty windsin the Buffalo area at night should force these teams to run the ball more thanusual, which plays into the Bobcats’ hands.

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Ohio vs. Buffalo best odds

AsUnder backers, we are making either DraftKings or bet365 our preferred choices among our best sports betting apps, astheir total is a full point higher than FanDuel’s. We would play this numberdown to 44 but will wait until BetMGM and Caesars release their lines to seeif they offer a more competitive number.

Ohio vs. Buffalo odds

Among our best sports betting sites, FanDuelhas seen the most fluctuation in its total, shooting up quickly from 43.5 to45.5 and then returning to its original number on Sunday afternoon. Both teams areprofitable to the Under, with Buffalo having an O/U record of 4-5 and the Undercashing in seven of Ohio’s nine games.

All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with a point spread of Ohio -7, while FanDuel is theonly one juiced to Buffalo’s +7 (-115). There was a lot of movement at FanDuelto get to that point, as the line rose from -5.5 to -6.5 instantly, andteetered back and forth between -6.5 and -7 a couple of times on Sunday afternoon.Ohio has a 4-5 ATS record, while Buffalo has covered the spread in five of itsnine games.