Oilers vs Kings Odds, Picks, and Predictions

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29 April 2023

Oilers vs Kings Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The metrics haven't been kind to the Kings in this series, and with the Oilers holding a clear edge, our NHL picks are backing them to finish the job in Game 6.

Game 6 of this Western Conference series gets underway on Saturday night, with the Los Angeles Kings hosting the Edmonton Oilers.

After Edmonton flipped the series around with two straight victories, it can clinch a berth into the next round with a win at Crypto.com Arena.

Will the Oilers take care of business once again, or can the Kings pull off the upset on home ice and force a decisive Game 7 in Edmonton? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Kings on Saturday, April 29.

Oilers vs Kings Game 6 odds

Oilers vs Kings series odds

Oilers vs Kings Game 6 predictions

The Edmonton Oilers currently possess all the momentum in this series as they look to beat the Los Angeles Kings in the first round in back-to-back years. After Zach Hyman buried the game-winner in overtime of Game 4, the Oilers utilized that series-changing goal to propel themselves to a dominating 6-3 win in Game 5.

While the Kings’ Phillip Danault has done a terrific job slowing down Connor McDavid by shadowing him on every shift, the Kings have not had an answer for Leon Draisaitl. The thing about Danault is that he can shadow one of the two superstars, but he cannot play both, which turns into a “pick your poison” situation.

With six goals and four assists through the first five games of this series, Draisaitl is third among all skaters in points this postseason. In fact, he has astonishingly been on the ice for 16 of Edmonton’s 20 goals in this series.

Despite Los Angles hanging around in this series, their underlying metrics suggest that regression is imminent. Among the 16 playoff teams, they rank last in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5 thus far, which is also a product of the Oilers’ powerhouse offense.

Through the first four games of this series, Edmonton outranks the Kings in both xGA/60 and expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. Carrying the momentum in this series and playing some strong two-way hockey, look for the Oilers to advance to the next round.

My best bet: Oilers moneyline (-165 at DraftKings)

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Oilers vs Kings Game 6 moneyline analysis

Los Angeles’ Joonas Korpisalo is the biggest concern when backing Edmonton. A massive acquisition for a team that was looking for more consistent goaltending at the trade deadline, Korpisalo has made a constant impact between the pipes.

Korpisalo produced a 7-3-1 record with a commanding .921 save percentage (SV%) and 2.13 goals against average (GAA) over his 11 starts with the Kings since the trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets. However, after a strong start to the series, his play started to crumble as the momentum shifted in this opening round.

Over his past two starts, Korpisalo is 0-2 with a troubling .852 SV% and 5.30 GAA. While these poor results are just as much a factor of the disparity in the play of the teams in front of him, he still has not looked nearly as dialed-in during Games 4 and 5 as he looked in Games 1-3.

Oilers vs Kings Game 6 Over/Under analysis

After Jack Campbell’s heroic efforts between the pipes in Game 4, head coach Jay Woodcroft returned to starting goaltender Stuart Skinner in Game 5. While Skinner has certainly not had the sharpest postseason, it’s more likely than not that things turn around soon for the rookie netminder.

Through 50 appearances in the crease this season, he posted a 29-14-5 record with a strong .913 SV% and 2.75 GAA. His underlying metrics were just as tremendous, ranking seventh among starting goaltenders in the regular season in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Prior to this postseason, Skinner put together a tremendous campaign against the Kings. Through four appearances between the pipes, he went 2-1 with a .950 SV% and 1.78 GAA. In the projected Korpisalo vs. Skinner matchup, I would lean towards the Under.

However, with these two offenses, I would need that number at 7.5 to even debate taking the Under, so I am staying away from the total.