Islanders vs Kings Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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14 March 2023

Islanders vs Kings Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

Joonas Korpisalo has been a savvy deadline acquisition for playoff-bound L.A., and he'll be needed against a gritty Islanders squad. Find out why our NHL picks like the Kings to take a big win here.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

In Tuesday’s nightcap, the Pacific Division’s Los Angeles Kings host the Metropolitan Division’s New York Islanders in a cross-country tilt.

A critical game for both clubs, New York looks to hold onto its wild card position while Los Angeles continues its attempt to jump Vegas for first place in the Pacific.

Will the Kings take care of business on home ice, or can the Islanders pull off the road upset? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Islanders vs. Kings on Tuesday, March 14.

Islanders vs Kings best odds

Islanders vs Kings picks and predictions

The Los Angeles Kings enter this contest in tremendous form, winning five of their last six games with the lone loss coming in a shootout against the Predators. A big reason for this recent trend is the uptick in offensive production, averaging 4.4 goals per game across those five wins.

Offensively, Los Angeles boasts the advantage in this contest, ranking one spot higher than the New York Islanders in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. With that in mind, the biggest discrepancy between these two clubs is defense.

At 5-on-5, the Kings rank fifth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) while the Islanders rank just 22nd. One of the better two-way teams in the league, Los Angeles not only possesses a strong blue line but also features a forward group with a bunch of great back checkers.

Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, and Trevor Moore all make life extremely difficult for opposing skaters. Backing up this strong two-way team is goaltender Joonas Korpisalo, who looks like a tremendous deadline acquisition for the Kings.

Through his first two starts for Los Angeles, Korpisalo is 2-0 with a .929 save percentage (SV%) and 2.01 goals against average (GAA). Putting together a strong campaign, he now boasts a .912 SV% and 2.87 GAA through 30 appearances in the crease, which is particularly impressive considering 28 of those appearances occurred behind the leaky Columbus blue line.

Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for Korpisalo. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks ninth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

With the better offense, defense, and a goaltender in great form, back the Kings to grab a big two points on home ice in this cross-country tilt.

My best bet: Kings moneyline (-135 at BetMGM)

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Islanders vs Kings moneyline analysis

The biggest concern in backing Los Angeles on Tuesday is the fact that goaltender Ilya Sorokin is projected to start between the pipes for New York. Carrying this team on his back, the Vezina Trophy candidate is 23-18-6 with a .925 SV% and 2.35 GAA through 49 appearances in the crease this season.

His underlying metrics are just as impressive, ranking second among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. However, while Sorokin is obviously better than Korpisalo, this is a matchup where the Kings' netminder should be able to keep up.

In Sorokin’s lone career start against Los Angeles, he allowed three goals on 28 shots for a .893 SV% en route to the Islanders’ 3-2 loss to the Kings just a few weeks ago. On the other hand, Korpisalo boasts a .919 SV% and 2.73 GAA through his 11 career outings against New York.

Islanders vs Kings Over/Under analysis

I would lean toward the Under in this contest but am more confident in just backing the Kings’ ability to take care of business on home ice. At 5-on-5, both clubs rank in the bottom half of the league in xGF/60.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles ranks fifth in xGA/60 at 5-on-5, making it one of the stingiest teams to play against in the league. On top of that, both goaltenders are tremendous and rank in the Top 10 among starters in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.

Taking the Under in Islanders games is typically a safe bet, with six or fewer total goals scored in eight of their last nine games. However, with the recent uptick in the Kings’ offensive production, I would rather just back them to win.