OKC Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Predictions, Odds & Player Props (March 3)

Just half a game back of Minnesota for first in the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder (41-18, 17-12 away, ATS) head to the desert for a meeting with the Phoenix Suns (35-25, 20-12 home, ATS) at the Footprint Center on Sunday night at 7:40 pm MT/9:40 pm ET.

The Suns are playing the second of back-to-back home games and are coming off an ugly 118-109 loss to Houston last night. With several Suns players laboring under injuries, the healthier and fresher Thunder are significant road favorites.

OKC Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Odds

Sunday’s NBA odds list OKC as a 6.5-point road favorite at -250 on the moneyline. Phoenix comes back at +200 to win. The game total

The NBA public betting splits show the public backing the Thunder as road favorites, with 63% of ATS handle on OKC to cover and 74% of moneyline handle on the Thunder to win straight-up. Bets on the game total are more divided; so far. 58% of over/under handle is on over 233.5.

Thunder Within Striking Distance of First in the West

As the NBA playoff bracket currently stands, the Thunder are just half a game behind the Minnesota Timberwolves for the #1 seed.  With a 24-6 record on their home court this season, earning home-court advantage throughout the West playoffs would be a massive boost for OKC’s title chances.

Despite sporting the third-best record in the NBA so far, OKC is not among the top-five favorites in the latest NBA title odds. At +2067, the Thunder are the sixth-favorite and only third among West teams.

OKC let a prime opportunity to overtake the T-Wolves slip away last time out, falling 132-118 at San Antonio as 11.5-point road favorites on Thursday.

OKC was uncharacteristically poor defensively against San Antonio, allowing the Spurs to shoot 52.7% from the floor and 48.7% from three.

Leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had another solid night on offense with 31 points on 12-of-22 shooting while Jalen Williams added 26 on 10-of-18 from the floor. SGA remains the second-favorite in the NBA MVP odds at +218, trailing only two-time winner Nikola Jokic (-146) of the Denver Nuggets.

Despite the lopsided loss, OKC remains fourth in the league in Defensive Rating at 111.4 and third in O-Rating (119.4). Along with Boston, they are the only teams in the NBA that sit in the top five in both categories.

Suns Fading After All-Star Break

It’s been a rough restart for the Phoenix Suns coming out of the All-Star break. The team is just 2-3 in five games including two losses to the Houston Rockets, who are just 26-34 on the year.

Making matters worse, Devin Booker (27.5 PPG, 6.8 APG) left last night’s loss late in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury. His status for Sunday is questionable.

Joining Booker on the injury report are Eric Gordon (12.5 PPG, 2.2 APG), who’s out with a groin injury, Jusuf Nurkic (11.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 3.8 APG), who’s a game-tide decision due to neck spasms, and Nassir Little (3.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG), who’s day-to-day with a knee injury.

The Suns are holding onto the #6 seed in the West but Sacramento is just half a game back while Dallas is one behind and hard-charging Golden State is 2.5 back.

Despite their precarious position on the edge of the Play-In Tournament, Phoenix remains fifth in the NBA title odds (+1633) due to the upside presented by the combination of Booker, Kevin Durant (27.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.6 APG) and Bradley Beal (17.8 PPG, 4.4 APG, 4.2 RPG).

OKC vs PHX Player Props

SGA (32.5) and Durant (30.5) both have point totals over 30 tonight while Holmgren has the highest rebound total at 8.5.

Thunder vs Suns Prediction

Fatigue is a big concern for a team like Phoenix on the tail end of back-to-backs. The Suns’ stars log big minutes, and their suffering from multiple injuries to rotation players. At the same time, the Suns have proved adept at handling back-to-backs this season. They are 7-3 straight-up in the second half of back-to-back games so far, including wins over Miami, Golden State, and Chicago.

As talented and balanced as OKC is, this is too many points to lay on the road to a top-six team with the likes of Durant and Beal.

OKC vs PHX pick: Suns +6.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

• 17-21 moneyline (+4.06 units)
• 16-13-2 ATS (+2.68 units)
• 7-12 player props (-6.82 units)
• 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise