Thunder vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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03 March 2024

Thunder vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The OKC Thunder have been one of the most profitable teams against the spread and face a potentially diminished Phoenix Suns squad tonight if Devin Booker rests his ankle after he sprained it on Saturday. Will that be enough for the visitors?

The Oklahoma City Thunder remain in the race for the Western Conference's top seed with just over 20 games to go but just had a six-game win streak snapped by the lowly San Antonio Spurs on Thursday.

Tonight, they will travel to take on the Phoenix Suns, who are just a half-game above the play-in and could be without Devin Booker, who sustained a sprained ankle in Saturday's loss to the Houston Rockets.

Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder bounce back and stay in the hunt for the No. 1 seed or will the potentially short-handed Suns find a way to keep the Thunder down in Sunday's primetime matchup? The NBA odds currently have the visitors listed around 6.5-point favorites.

NBA picks and predictions for the Thunder vs Suns matchup on Sunday, March 3.

Thunder vs Suns odds

Thunder vs Suns predictions

It's rare for a team to be elite on both ends of the floor, but the Oklahoma City Thunder have been exactly that. They rank third in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating, standing as just one of two teams to rank in the Top 5 of both metrics.

And while they may not be on Oklahoma City's level, the Phoenix Suns are no slouches in that regard. To its credit, Phoenix ranks 11th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating — the latter being largely unexpected after its roster overhaul in the offseason.

The Thunder are also elite at taking care of the ball, possessing the third-lowest turnover rate in the league despite playing at the ninth-highest pace. The Suns rank 22nd in points off turnovers, so they need to find other scoring avenues.

To make matters worse, they shoot the ninth-highest percentage of two-point attempts while the Thunder allow the third-lowest percentage on those shots.

The main question, however, is how well their offense will hold up if Devin Booker misses this game after suffering an ankle sprain in a loss to the Rockets. In their only other matchup this year, which Booker missed, the Thunder beat the Suns 111-99.

The Thunder are notoriously great as a larger favorite, having gone 15-5 against the spread when favored by more than six points and 6-1 when favored between 6.5 and 7.5 points specifically.

My best bet: Thunder -6.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Thunder vs Suns same-game parlay

Thunder -6.5

Kevin Durant Under 30.5 points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points

The Thunder's defensive proficiency is a perfect place to start when building a same-game parlay. Kevin Durant leads all Suns in 2-point field-goal attempts, shooting 14.0 per game. He shot just 4-for-13 on 2-pointers in his last game against the Thunder and only bailed out his night with 11 trips to the free-throw line en route to a 28-point performance. With his prop at 30.5, he will have enough cushion to stay under that mark.

Looking at the other superstar in this game, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander has had an MVP-caliber season and one of his largest strengths is relentlessly attacking the rim. That volume leads to frequent trips to the free-throw line, averaging the third most attempts behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic.

However, the Suns are rather disciplined when defending the rim, allowing just the ninth-most free-throw attempts to opposing players. Plus, if we expect the Thunder to wrap this game up rather easily, we may see SGA less involved than he would be in a more closely contested game.

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Thunder vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

Oklahoma City is this year's second-best team against the spread, having gone 37-21-1 ATS and covering in 63.8% of games.

The Thunder have gone 15-5 ATS when favored by 6.5 or more points and have also covered in six of their last seven overall.

The Suns have gone 24-34-2 this year ATS, good for the third-worst cover rate in the league at 40.0%. They have not fared well as home underdogs, having gone 1-3 in that split. They have also struggled against the Western Conference's top teams, going 1-4 ATS against the Timberwolves, Thunder, Nuggets, and Clippers.

The Thunder are this year's best team on the Over at 33-23-3 (58.9%). That rate slightly increases on the road to 60.7% (17-11-1) and increases even further as road favorites (12-5-1, 70.6%).

However, Sunday's 233.5 total is on the lower end for the Thunder, and they have gone 16-11 to the Under in games at or below that number. Phoenix has gone 32-27-1 to the Under this year, good for a 54.2% rate (10th). They have gone Under the total in six straight games now.

Sunday's 233.5 total is on the higher end of totals for the Suns, and they have notably gone 18-10 to the Under in games with totals of 233.5 or higher.