Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Western Conference foes will clash for the third time this season in crypto.com Arena. The Oklahoma City Thunder (27-11; 26-12-0 ATS) and Los Angeles Lakers (19-21; 16-24-0 ATS) split the first two meetings, both in Oklahoma. The over hit both times. At 10:40 p.m. EDT, will this game meet a similar fate on Monday? Who will earn their second win in this season's series? Those questions will be answered soon.
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Thunder Eyeing First
Oklahoma City is tearing through the NBA right now and four straight wins has the club just outside of the Western Conference's top spot. However, OKC's star, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is dealing with a knee injury right now so his status for this game is questionable. His absence would be a massive blow for a team that's fourth in offensive rating. He's a major reason that the Thunder have the best true shooting percentage in the league, as they're efficient from every area of the floor. This offense also has the second-lowest turnover percentage. Offensive rebounding is a glaring weakness, but with shooting like OKC's, they don't need very many to succeed.
JDub beats the buzzer heading into the 4th �� pic.twitter.com/WRbvQCcAR5
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) January 14, 2024
Meanwhile, the Thunder are third in defensive rating. Again, they're elite (top 10) at forcing misses from every scoring area, while forcing the highest percentage of turnovers in the NBA. In their past two games, OKC allowed 177 total points. The second-lowest defensive rebounding percentage is a concern, as is giving up the fourth-most free throw attempts per game. Still, this team stifles most opponents. Can they stifle the Lakers on the road?
Lakers Losing a lot Lately
While the Thunder keep stacking wins, the Lakers have been a mess since winning the In-Season Tournament. LeBron James is questionable after missing last game, Cam Reddish is out, and the team is 4-11 in their past 15 tries. The primary issue is an offensive rating that's dipped to 23rd in the NBA. LA is one of the two teams worse than OKC at offensive rebounding. The team is also 20th in turnover percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. Where Los Angeles excels is in the paint. They take the second-highest percentage of shots at the rim and have the ninth-best efficiency. The Lakers average the eighth-most free throw attempts per contest. Otherwise, this team is inefficient outside of the paint and attempts the fewest three-pointers per game.
They let down a defense that's 14th in defensive rating. The Lakers thrive by allowing the third-fewest free throw attempts per game. They're also third in defensive rebounding percentage and allow the fourth-fewest percentage of shots to come at the rim. Conversely, they give up the fifth-most three-point attempts per game and allow the 23rd-highest three-point percentage. They're also below average at forcing turnovers. Their strengths show up often, but Los Angeles is vulnerable too.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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This is a game that the Thunder should win, with or without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They averaged 126.5 points per game in their first two games against the Lakers. OKC has the edge in turnovers on both ends of the floor.
The Thunder are also well-equipped to take advantage of Los Angeles' weak perimeter defense. OKC defends the rim well, which will give the Lakers' offense fits. At plus odds, the Thunder moneyline is easily the best way to bet this game. They're hot, and the Lakers are not.
Prediction: OKC Thunder +100
Full-Game Total Pick
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Both of these teams rate higher on the defensive end this season. Along with that, the Thunder have prevented two straight foes from exceeding 100 points. They held the Lakers to 110 in the first meeting and can stifle Los Angeles by forcing turnovers and ugly shots at the rim.
Meanwhile, the Lakers will not allow many free throws or offensive rebounds, meaning that each Thunder possession will need to count. The Thunder don't typically take a ton of threes, so the Lakers may catch a break from their weak three-point defense. It'll be tight, but this game should be the first between these teams this season to end under the total.
Prediction: Under 238
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
