Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Oklahoma City rode a +10 1st quarter advantage on the scoreboard to basically dictate everything against New Orleans en route to the victory. The aggressiveness was there from the outset, and the Thunder were rewarded by getting to the free throw line 30+ times and hitting 25+ of them. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was great for OKC once again, and every win means so much to the Thunder right now.

It's why that even with this being a tough back-to-back spot for OKC, they've got to make sure they bring that same energy and aggressiveness with them to San Antonio this evening. There is no taking the Spurs too lightly right now considering they just beat Denver last time out, but this is a game the Thunder have to make sure they win. Even if there are some ATS trends suggesting otherwise for OKC in this scenario.

No House Advantage: Bet on player over/unders VS THE HOUSE to 21x your bet OR play in PICK 'EM contests against other people! Click here to get a 1st deposit match up to $100 1st w/ promocode StatSalt!The 128-120 win as huge home dogs on Friday came after four full days off for this Spurs team that had just been swept by Houston in a home-and-home. That was quite the situational edge for San Antonio and they made the most of it despite the severe talent disadvantage they were in against the Nuggets as well. The offense was clicking as San Antonio shot 54% from the floor as a team, making it the first time in nine games that they had scored 120 or more.

Yet, the Spurs are 0-2 SU and ATS against the Thunder this season, and while both of those came back in late-2022 and where in Oklahoma City, both Thunder wins came by at least eight points. Since then, San Antonio has only solidified their spot as the worst team in the NBA in defensive efficiency (ranked 30th at 1.163), and find themselves in about as traditional of a letdown spot as it gets following that Denver win.

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Oklahoma City's 0-4 ATS mark as a road favorite has brought a 1-3 O/U record with it, as scoring points have seemingly been the issue for the Thunder in this role. Combine that with the fact that San Antonio hasn't scored 120+ in consecutive games since January 20th and 23rd, and I'm going under this total tonight.

Potential for a letdown on San Antonio's side is likely going to show up on offense where they rank 28th in offensive efficiency, and the potential for tired legs off the back-to-back is going to affect OKC's jump shooting more than their defense.

Oklahoma City also owns a 8-3 record to the under in their last 11 against teams winning 40% or fewer of their games, and with this total in the mid-230's, I'll take my chances that this one slides just below that number.