Oklahoma vs Texas Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

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20 February 2023

Oklahoma vs Texas Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

This heated rivalry game features a bloated spread, and Oklahoma's defensive profile favors against Texas. Our college basketball picks don't see a big divide in the Red River showdown on Saturday.

There’s a rivalry showdown to look forward to in the Big 12 this weekend.

The Oklahoma Sooners (13-13) finally got back in the win column with a midweek 79-65 defeat of Kansas State to stem the bleeding after seven straight conference losses.

The No. 6 Texas Longhorns (20-6) has lost two of its last three and will look to get back on track after a midweek loss on the road in Lubbock.

The last time these teams met, Texas picked up a narrow 70-69 win in Norman. Will things be as close the second time around?

college basketball picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs. Texas on Saturday, February 18 to find out.

Oklahoma vs Texas best odds

Oklahoma vs Texas picks and predictions

Oklahoma went a month between conference wins, but Porter Moser and company finally got the wagons back on the road with a resounding 79-65 road win over Kansas State. The reward? A road trip to Austin to face off with a hungry rival squad looking for a statement win after dropping two of its last three games.

Both teams’ leadership (and former leadership) have been in the news for the wrong reason as it concerns the current season. Rumors continue to swirl about Moser and openings at other programs following the conclusion of this season, while former Longhorns coach Chris Beard’s legal situation (or lack thereof) has dominated headlines.

Neither team is in peak shape and it’s a rivalry game — so expect the warriors on the court to decide this battle more than any outside factors.

Oklahoma hasn’t won on the road since January 7, when it took overtime to topple Iowa State. The Sooners have lost five straight road games by an average margin of 19.8 ppg — not great. That being said, it’d be foolish to count the Sooners out as a scrub team.

Things haven’t been right in Norman for a while, but Moser’s squad still currently sits at 54th overall in KenPom — ranking 64th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Not bad for a team perceived to be in freefall.

The advanced stats love the Longhorns, as they rank ninth overall in KenPom — 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. I’m personally a bit more concerned with their shot profile, as they rank 55th in percentage of shots taken from the mid-range vs. the average opponent (Haslametrics.com) but just 293rd in 3-point attempt percentage and 217th in near-proximity attempt percentage.

Oklahoma’s defensive strategy involves shutting off the rim. The Sooners rank 299th in near-proximity attempt percentage and 257th in mid-range attempt percentage (Haslametrics.com), forcing opponents to beat them from deep.

Texas isn’t exactly the most adept team in the world from behind the arc, ranking 206th in 3-point attempts per game (21.2) and 188th in 3-point shooting (34.2%).

The Big 12 is a monster this year, and Oklahoma hit a rough patch that could qualify as a hole in the bottom of the boat for some teams. Moser is a well-respected coach and his team still has plenty of talent and is solid on both sides of the ball, so I’m not counting them out just yet. They match up well with the Longhorns from a defensive standpoint and this spread is inflated at double-digits in a rivalry game.

I’ll back the dog.

My best bet: Oklahoma +10.5 (-110 at bet365)

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Oklahoma vs Texas spread analysis

Texas is listed at -10.5 across the board as of early Saturday morning.

The Sooners have been dreadful on the road lately, failing to cover the spread in any of their last four chances as the away team. They’re just 1-4 ATS overall in their last five games.

The first game was an indication of how the Sooners match up well with the Longhorns this season despite being the inferior team. Texas was reluctant to chuck up the deep ball, attempting just 15 threes while converting five of them.

I expect an adjustment from Moser this time around, forcing the Longhorns into more shots from deep that they will be somewhat reluctant to take.

Oklahoma is clearly a team capable of playing at a high level, as made clear in a 93-69 win over Alabama during the Big 12/SEC Challenge. The Tide are currently the No. 1 team in America, and the Sooners handled them like children.

Moser’s team needs to find consistency and that’s far from a sure bet at this juncture, but this is undoubtedly one of the best .500 teams you’ll ever come across.

Oklahoma vs Texas Over/Under analysis

There’s a wide range on the total at current, as it can be had for as low as 142.5 and as high as 144. As always, be sure to shop around.

Both teams have been profitable to the Over this season, as Oklahoma is 14-12 while Texas is 14-10-2.

The Sooners have been rolling to the Over lately, cashing in five of their last six games. Before the midweek win over Kansas State, they had allowed 84.3 ppg in three straight losses. The defense is still solid overall, ranking 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Sooners like to grind games down to a halt, checking in at 282nd in KenPom’s adjusted pace metric. They don’t seem to have much of a reason to push the pace in this matchup against the Longhorns, who have the better athletes.

The Longhorns had some lapses defensively that have caused their advanced numbers to go down, but they still have the pieces to be very good on that side of the ball.

I don’t see enough value in this total to make a bet, but I have a slight preference for the Under.