Oregon vs. Washington: Pac-12 Championship Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets
- Matchup: Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies
- Date: Friday, Dec. 1
- Time: 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Oregon -380, Washington +300
- Spread: Oregon -10 (-110), Washington +10 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 65.5 (-112/-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
At long last, the rematch is here: No. 5 Oregon (11-1) vs. No. 3 Washington (12-0) in the Pac-12 Championship with a trip to the College Football Playoff on the line.
This matchup has seemed inevitable ever since these teams faced off in Seattle on Oct. 14, when the Ducks missed a field goal as time expired in a clash of then-undefeated teams. Neither team has lost since, though the Huskies haven’t won a game by more than 10 points in six weeks while Oregon continues to steamroll every opponent it faces.
Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s conference championship showdown:
Last Time Out
Another week, another blowout win for the Ducks, who have outscored teams by an average of 26 points per game since that 3-point loss to Washington in Week 7.
Oregon’s latest win was easily its most impressive of the season: a 31-7 dismantling of rival Oregon State (8-4) in what could be the last edition of the rivalry with the Ducks headed to the Big Ten next season. Oregon amassed 480 yards with zero turnovers against the Beavers, who hadn’t allowed 30 points in a game in nearly two months before last Friday.
The Huskies’ rivalry matchup came with a much bigger sweat, as they needed some creative play-calling on 4th-and-1 on the game’s final drive to survive Washington State (5-7). It was both a shocking and predictable result for Washington, which has won its last three games by a combined 12 points.
When these teams met back in October, the Huskies were favored by 3.5 points against the spread. This time around, the Ducks opened as 7.5-point favorites and were bet up to -9.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. On game day, Oregon was -10.
Curiously, nearly 70% of the public is backing Washington, which suggests sharp action on Oregon ahead of Friday. It’s not hard to see why.
While the Ducks were on the wrong side of this matchup in Week 7, they looked like the better team on the field and the stat sheet. They outgained the Huskies by 126 yards and finished with eight more first downs, but poor execution on fourth down and in the red zone doomed Dan Lanning’s group in its only loss of the season.
We’ve seen a different team in the six weeks since. Only one of Oregon’s last six games has been decided by single digits – a nine-point win over USC that wasn’t really that close. The Ducks lead the nation in scoring margin (+29.3) through 12 weeks and are arguably the most complete team in the country.
Oregon QB Bo Nix has established himself as the Heisman Trophy favorite, leading the nation in passing yards (3,906) and completion rate (78.6%) while tossing just two interceptions on the entire season. He’s been flanked by one of the nation’s best rushing attacks, which ranks third in yards per carry (5.84).
Meanwhile, the Ducks’ defense ranks in the top 10 in scoring (15.9 PPG) and top 15 in yardage (306.9 YPG).
That isn’t the case for Washington, a talented but clearly flawed team. The Huskies’ offense has run cold since their epic win over Oregon, with former Heisman favorite Michael Penix completing fewer than 60% of his passes in five of his last seven games.
We’ve seen those issues on full display over the last two weeks, as Washington scored just 46 points combined in a pair of nail-biting wins. That wouldn’t be as big of a concern if the Huskies didn’t own one of the worst rush defenses in the country – a serious issue ahead of Friday’s rematch.
Consider, too, that we’ve seen these teams face five common opponents in the six weeks since their showdown in Seattle. The Ducks won those five games by an average of 22.4 points. The Huskies won theirs by 30 points combined.
No matter how you slice it, Oregon feels like a superior team to the one that fell short in October, and Washington clearly hasn’t played up to the level we saw in that win. This is also a matchup nightmare for the Huskies, which was the case in Week 7 as well but was mitigated by the Ducks’ numerous self-inflicted wounds.
We haven’t seen many (or any) of those over the last six weeks, and don’t expect to see them crop up on Friday. This may be close early, but Oregon should pull away at some point to punch its expected ticket to the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Oregon -10 (-110)
How to Bet the Total
The first meeting between these two teams featured a betting total of 67.5, and the final score produced 69 combined points. Friday’s matchup is dealing a shade lower at 65.5, which is likely a reaction to Washington’s recent offensive woes.
It’s hard to know what to expect from the Huskies’ offense on Friday. Will we see the version of Penix who looked like the eventual Heisman winner through the first half of the season, when he was firing darts all over the yard and putting up video game numbers? Or the one who has thrown six picks over his last seven games and averaged just 271.4 passing yards in that stretch?
We do know what we’ll see from the Ducks’ offense, and that’s a heck of a lot of points. They have been a well-oiled machine behind Nix, who is on pace to break the single-season record for completion percentage. Meanwhile, the two-headed backfield monster of Bucky Irving and Jordan James has foiled defenses all season long.
Expect Oregon to do most of its damage near the line of scrimmage. That’s bad news for Washington, which has struggled mightily to stop the run or defend against the short passing game. That was an issue in Week 7, when the Ducks ran for 204 yards and Nix picked apart the Huskies’ defense all game long.
It’s tempting to bet the Over here, but with so much uncertainty surrounding Washington’s offense, it’s better to bet what we know. And we know Oregon’s offense is a runaway train.
The Ducks’ team total (38.5) is a big number, but everything points to Nix leading his side to another explosive scoring effort.
Pick: Oregon team total Over 38.5 points (-105)
Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
